How "Magic" Fund Managers Are Unprepared?

A shares soared, exceeding the expectations of many institutional investors.

Magic is that a large number of active fund managers have lost the market, especially in the first half of the year, the performance of outstanding fund managers is even worse, almost annihilated.

Under the change of market style, should the future market buy undervalued or grow? Focus on value switching?

Many fund managers in the 21st century also began to talk to managers of fund division.

Fund managers' judgment and investment began to diverge. Picture station cool Hailuo

Performance fund underperformed the market

In the second half of the year, A-share opening is quite magical.

As of July 9, in the short seven trading days since July, the Shanghai index has risen by 15.61%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index have also risen by 14.70% and 13.10% respectively.

The key is, the recent market style switch, blue chips leading growth stocks.

Among them, big finance, cycle and other undervalued sectors rose strongly; on the contrary, the strong pharmaceutical, consumer, technology and other sectors in the first half of the year saw a low rise, even a correction.

Among them, since July, securities companies, insurance companies and banks of Shenwan secondary industry index have increased by 35.82%, 23.31% and 15.41% respectively. In the first half of the year, they all fell to - 5.96%, - 17.60%, - 13.97%. The undervalued cyclical stocks in the first half of the year have also risen sharply since July, with the coal mining index up 20.81% and real estate development up 19.12%.

Unexpectedly, a shares in this round of skyrocketing, active partial stock funds generally run below the market.

For example, wind data shows that, as of July 8, the average returns of common stock funds and partial stock mixed funds have been 8.58% and 8.16% respectively, which is obviously inferior to the market.

However, the performance of performance funds in the first half of the year was even worse. The top four companies in the first half of the year have all recorded negative returns since July: ChuangJin Hexin healthcare industry a, ChuangJin Hexin healthcare industry C, Guangfa healthcare a and BAOYING healthcare. In the first half of the year, the returns of Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen were 83.17%, 82.53%, 77.94% and 75.84%, respectively. As of July 8, the returns since July were - 3.21%, - 3.23%, - 0.05 .96%、-1.08%。

As of July 8, the average return of the top 100 funds in the first half of the year was 1.08%, and the range of return was - 3.23% - 12.64%. None of the funds outperformed the market.

More than 50% of their earnings are in the first half of the year.

Growth style game

"In the first half of the year, the fund managers with leading performance mainly focused on scientific and technological growth, among which the medical and pharmaceutical theme funds performed the best. Since July, the financial cycle and other sectors have made a substantial supplementary increase in valuation, with a large increase. Therefore, the performance of the fund with the leading performance of science and technology growth style in the first half of the year is relatively weak. " Zhang Ting, a senior researcher at GESHANG fortune, explains.

Although the second half of the first half lost in the starting line, but does not mean that the first half of the outstanding fund managers have no chance.

Zhang Ting said, "in the future, the growth trend of science and technology growth plate relative to large blue chip profits is still in the trend. There are still opportunities for science and technology growth. Next, there are certain opportunities for technology, consumption and cycle, but the relative profit of science and technology growth is more dominant."

With the change of market style, the organization layout also began to differentiate.

Different from the fund manager's judgment. Some fund managers may continue to stick to the strong stocks in the first half of the year, and some fund managers will switch to undervalued stocks in order to realize the rotation of the board. " Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said.

"The market in the second half of the year will be better than that in the first half of the year. The A-share market has turned from a partial bull market in the first half of the year to a comprehensive bull market. So for the investment strategy in the second half of the year, I think we should have both offensive and defensive strategies. We should have both undervalued blue chips and offensive plates such as securities companies and technology. " Yang Delong said.

Zhang Ting pointed out that "from the present point of view, most funds will still adhere to the general direction before, because from the performance forecast of the first half of the year, the performance growth of technology and consumption is still relatively good, and there are still opportunities for technology consumption. Therefore, these fund managers may adjust some of their positions to cycle and finance, but most of them will stick to the big direction."

In fact, the judgment and investment of fund managers began to diverge.

According to the latest survey results of private placement network, 73.32% of private placement respondents believe that the current value style outperforms the growth style, which is only a periodic valuation repair. In the long run, systematic switching of market style is difficult, and growth stock investment is still the main line of the market in the second half of the year; however, 26.68% of private equity firms believe that the rise of undervalued sectors such as financial and real estate is an important signal of market style switching.

Organization layout differentiation

In general, Li Hongjie's investment philosophy is his own. However, changes in the market can not be controlled or predicted by fund managers. In the current market is a little crazy, sometimes they will follow the trend. "

Li Kejie thinks, "the short-term rise is fierce, adjustment is inevitable. In the second half of the year, there are still opportunities for A-shares, because quite a few of them have not yet fully entered the market. "

Renqiao investment has recently reduced the proportion of growth stocks with high overvalued growth and increased the proportion of value stocks with undervalued and low attention. Probably, the market will continue to spread in the future.

Zhuang Hongdong, a fund manager of cheese fund, said that in the second half of the year, the bank and insurance sectors with historically low valuations and the household appliance industry (white power) with marginal improvement were focused. But it can not judge whether the short-term trend of a shares is optimistic. He pointed out that he would continue to seek for a reasonable investment theme, and would still avoid investment opportunities in the future.

While some fund managers keep the original investment direction unchanged.

Li Shixian, director of banyan investment research, said that the recent rise in major financial and real estate sectors was a round of supplementary price rise, with no strong long-term logical support and weak market continuity. In the second half of the year, consumer medicine and technology sector will still be the main line of the market. He focused on investment opportunities in new energy vehicles, 5g and semiconductors.

Zhao Lisong, chairman of shangdegu investment, said, "I always don't like the main board, especially the financial stocks, or the growth stocks."

"I judge that it is not a bull market, but a slightly stronger rebound. The second half of the market has not finished, but this wave of rebound, there should be some market adjustment. " Zhao Lisong said, "in the second half of the year, we still need to buy some growth stocks."

Zhao Lisong recently meet high reduce some positions, "after the market first wait and see, wait until the market shock and then pick some stocks not started."

In fact, a number of organizations interviewed by the reporter said that they began to reduce their positions.

As for the sharp rise of a shares since July, Lin Jiayi, CEO of Xuanjia finance, thinks, "it can't be sustained. At present, a lot of leverage ratio has been hidden in the trading volume of the market, which is a risk. At present, most of the consumer medicine technology valuation breaks through the historical edge, and most of them deviate from the fundamentals. "

"It's not because of the change in our own investment strategy. Recently, the market's continuous valuation improvement has made some of our previous position valuations reach the upper edge of historical valuation. We are gradually reducing our holdings of some overvalued stocks, but most of the underlying valuations we hold are still in an acceptable range. " Jialin said.

"In the second half of the year, we still insist on undervalued and high roe targets. If the market valuation level continues to rise, we will gradually reduce the holdings of the targets that are not acceptable for valuation. If the market can remain in a state of sustained irrational prosperity or bubble, and we can't find any enterprises within our ability circle, we will hedge the bottom position completely, concentrate on offline innovation, and continue to earn risk-free excess return in terms of new stock returns. " Lin Jiayi said.

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