Polyester Open To Reduce Load And Production, Raw Material Low Pressure

survey:

The U.S. crude oil 08 contract sharply reversed on Thursday and Friday, with a weekly minimum of 38.54 U.S. dollars. It rebounded sharply on Friday night, with a weekly increase of only 0.74%, and closed back above $40. The trend of Buyou 09 contract was basically the same as that of us oil, with the lowest correction to US $41.32 in the middle of the week, with a weekly increase of only 0.91%, and a recovery of above $43 at the end of the week. Domestic SC crude oil 08 main contract fell sharply on Friday, closing at 292.1 yuan, a sharp decline compared with last week, with a weekly decline of 1.91%.

As of the reporting period, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States reached 3.3556 million and the death toll was nearly 140000. At the same time, Brazil, Russia, India, Spain, Peru epidemic situation is not optimistic. The cumulative number of confirmed cases in Brazil also reached 184100. Unidentified pneumonia has appeared in Kazakhstan, the risk of domestic flood is increasing, and the macro risk is increasing.

The weaving operation rate still fluctuates at a low level. The load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms dropped slightly to 62%, and the elastic operation rate dropped to 72%. Polyester load temporarily maintained at 92%, polyester products again a substantial accumulation of inventory pressure, filament loss intensified. Polyester staple fiber accumulated for 5 weeks to 6 days. Polyester plant opens a new round of load reduction and production reduction, high load is difficult to maintain. The total PTA inventory of polyester raw materials is still at the highest level in the same period of previous years; ethylene glycol port inventory expansion is imminent, arrival volume remains high, and shipment is neutral. The accumulation is expected to remain.

　　PTA：

The average price of PTA fell sharply to 3475 tons on Friday. TA disk main processing poor shock narrowed this week, to Friday 695. 1.25 million tons of Hengli No.5 Line has been put into operation with 95% load operation, and the other line is planned to test run at the weekend. The operating rate rose slightly compared with last week, and the supply increment under the new capacity base increased. The px-npt price gap broke through a new low again this week, with a minimum of $136, the lowest level in history.

glycol:

After stabilizing in Northeast Asia, the price of ethylene fell to 800 tons in the week. Ethylene glycol port inventory on July 6, the latest inventory showed a significant accumulation compared with the previous period. As of July 6, MEG port inventory in East China's main port area was about 1.463 million tons, up 59000 tons compared with the previous period. According to the shipping report, from July 6 to July 12, the total amount of goods delivered by the four major ports is expected to be 326000 tons, still at a very high level. Zhangjiagang and Taicang two mainstream reservoir area delivery recently neutral, the average total daily average is about 12000 tons / day. The problem of port storage capacity may lead to slow increase of dominant inventory and slow down of accumulation of dominant inventory.

　　 Cost and profit

1 raw material Market

1.1 crude oil, PX

　 Based on CFR Japanese naphtha, naphtha (CFR Japan) showed an upward trend this week to US $404 / T on Friday. The U.S. crude oil 08 contract sharply reversed on Thursday and Friday, with a weekly minimum of 38.54 U.S. dollars. It rebounded sharply on Friday night, with a weekly increase of only 0.74%, and closed back above $40. The trend of Buyou 09 contract was basically the same as that of us oil, with the lowest correction to US $41.32 in the middle of the week, with a weekly increase of only 0.91%, and a recovery of above $43 at the end of the week. Naphtha widened to US $113-86 on Friday, and crude oil price difference narrowed to US $113-86 on Friday. PX (CFR China) price rose sharply to 548 yuan on Monday, and then fell to 540 US dollars / ton on Friday. Since July 1, 2020, the total capacity of PX in Asia will be adjusted to 60.28 million tons due to a small expansion of 180 thousand tons by Hyundai. Domestic PX production capacity maintained 25.03 million tons. The px-npt price gap broke new lows again this week, with a minimum of $136 on Friday, the lowest in history.

PX rose to 76.2% in the previous week, with a sharp rise of 10.9% compared with the previous week.

Profit change cost 2

The average spot price of oil to ethylene glycol fell sharply within the week and fell to 3390 yuan on Friday. The average price within the week was about 3462 yuan, a sharp drop of 32 yuan compared with last week's price center, equivalent to about 3262-3312 yuan of coal based contract price. In the chart, it is based on the nearby spot price - 3250 yuan / ton. The coal to ethylene glycol deficit intensified for five consecutive weeks, with the highest regional loss of - 1300 yuan. Ethylene prices in Northeast Asia fell sharply to $800 / T in the week and then stabilized. The cash flow loss of ethylene glycol production decreased to around - 115 US dollars. The loss of cash flow from naphtha to ethylene glycol increased to more than - 60 USD / T. The cash flow loss of MTO methanol production line increased significantly to about - 1060 yuan. The ethylene glycol process of each line is in total deficit.

　　 Supply

1. Equipment maintenance

　　 From July 1, 2020, the polyester production base will be upgraded to 61.1 million tons, including Shenghong 250000 tons (filament), Yisheng 250000 tons (bottle flakes), Yijin 100000 tons (staple fiber) and Yihua 200000 tons (staple fiber). On Wednesday, a 200000 ton plant was opened in Fangxiang, and some polyester plants reduced production. Overall, polyester load fluctuated in a narrow range. As of this Friday, polyester load was 92%. In the middle of the week, the sales rate of the rest of the week was reduced by 120% except polyester production.

Table 1: recent changes in major polyester plants:

　　 Data source: CCF Zhongzhou energy and Chemical Research Institute

PTA domestic plant: as the 2.5 million ton PTA plant of Hengli phase 5 was put into operation at the end of June, the PTA capacity base was adjusted to 54.83 million tons. At the end of the month, the overhaul plan of Yangzi Hengli petrochemical plant with a total capacity of 2.55 million tons was postponed.

Table 2: recent changes of PTA main units:

　　 Data source: CCF Zhongzhou energy and Chemical Research Institute

Ethylene glycol unit: the load of coal to ethylene glycol unit has slightly increased, and the comprehensive operating rate continues to decline slightly. As of July 9, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in China was 58.25%. The start-up load of coal to ethylene glycol was 41.72%.

Table 3: recent changes in major MEG units

　　 Data source: CCF Zhongzhou energy and Chemical Research Institute

Commissioning of new units: the first 200000 tons of coal to ethylene glycol plant of Xinjiang Tianye and 400000 tons of Zhongke refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. are in the commissioning stage, and are expected to supply the market from July to August.

　　 PTA Inventory 2

PTA plant inventory for six consecutive weeks to maintain stable at 5.5 days. PTA raw material inventory of polyester plant stabilized at 10 days for two consecutive weeks. In fact, the total inventory of polyester products in PTA warehouse increased significantly compared with the total inventory of PTA products last week. Absolute inventory is still the highest level of the same period in nearly four years.

　　 Ethylene glycol import and port inventory

Ethylene glycol port inventory on July 6, the latest inventory showed a significant accumulation compared with the previous period. As of July 6, MEG port inventory in East China's main port area was about 1.463 million tons, up 59000 tons compared with the previous period. According to the shipping report, from July 6 to July 12, the total amount of goods delivered by the four major ports is expected to be 326000 tons, still at a very high level. Zhangjiagang and Taicang two mainstream reservoir area delivery recently neutral, the average total daily average is about 12000 tons / day. The problem of port storage capacity may lead to slow increase of dominant inventory and slow down of accumulation of dominant inventory.

　　 Demand

1 polyester

1.1 polyester operating rate and plant change

Although the overall maintenance level of 92% from last week to 2018 is still lower than the overall maintenance level of 92% this week. Among them, the operating rate of polyester filament slightly decreased by 0.5% to 77% compared with the previous period; the load of polyester bottle flakes decreased slightly by 0.3% to 77.30%; the operation rate of direct spinning polyester short yarn increased slightly by 94.30% of 0.7%. The operating rate of direct spinning polyester staple is still the highest level in the same period of history; the operating rate of polyester filament is still only higher than the next low level in the same period of 16 years; the operating rate of polyester bottle sheet is still the lowest level in the same period of history.

　　 1.2 polyester inventory

The inventory changes of downstream polyester products: polyester filament comprehensive accumulation: POY large accumulation of 1.8 days to 18.9 days, FDY small accumulation of 0.4 days to 19.3 days, and DTY inventory to a large extent of 1.8 days to 29.6 days. At present, the short fiber stock is accumulated for 5 days. Polyester bottle piece inventory to maintain last week's inventory level of 20 days above. The inventory of polyester staple fiber rebounded to the level above the equilibrium level in the same period of the previous year, and the advantage of low inventory was no longer; the inventory of polyester filament and polyester bottle piece maintained the highest level in the same period of previous years.

　　 2 terminal conditions

This week, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom, elastic start-up overall small decline. Up to now, the operating rate of loom and texturing is 62% and 72% respectively. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms dropped slightly by 2%, still at the lowest level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of comprehensive spring loading dropped slightly by 1%, which was the lowest level in the same period of previous years. Although the terminal purchase was followed up, the sales volume was only slightly increased on Wednesday, and the production and sales rate reached 110% - 120%. With limited orders, it is difficult to maintain the continuity of production.

　　 The number of grey fabric inventory days of sample weaving enterprises in Shengze area rose again from 5.25 to 44.5 days at present, which is the highest level in the same period of previous years. Under the influence of the epidemic situation, the off-season of this year came earlier than that of previous years, and began to accumulate continuously at the end of may (in previous years, grey fabric inventory began to accumulate until the end of June to the beginning of July). Under the background of off-season, grey cloth inventory is still expected to continue to accumulate. Light Textile City Trading Volume in late June and the same period in previous years, mainly due to the terminal in this time period are in the off-season, trading light. In the second half of the year, the peak season demand of gold, silver and ten may begin to manifest in the middle of August. There is also a risk of delaying or not flourishing in the peak season. We should pay attention to the development of the epidemic situation.