Weak Demand Of Polyester Around Oil Price

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Viewpoint strategy

Last week PTA shock finishing, ta009 on Friday reported 3556, the whole week up 10 (+ 0.28%), spot processing fees compressed to around 590 yuan / ton, there is still room for compression. Eg 009 closed at 3594 on Friday, up 79 (- 2.27%) for the week. International oil price fluctuated, PX price rose in January, PTA processing fee continued to compress. The supply and demand of pta-px in the upstream of the whole line has been put into operation, and the supply and demand of pta-px in the upstream of the whole line has been put into operation. On the downstream side, with the deepening of the traditional off-season and the repeated overseas epidemic situation, the terminal orders are relatively light, and no obvious improvement can be seen in a short time. The weak terminal demand drags down the loom start-up further, and the demand for polyester is also weakening. However, the inventory of polyester was further accumulated, and filament POY and FDY continued to lose money. Under the double extrusion, some factories successively reduced production and load, and the polyester load decreased slightly. If the contradiction continued to ferment, there was still room for decline in polyester start-up. This round of production reduction cycle is expected to last at least until the end of the month, and the low operating rate needs to be observed. In terms of ethylene glycol, the benefit of each production line is low, and most of coal chemical industry is also in a deficit state. The commissioning of new units is delayed, and there is little room for further load reduction, so there is a certain cost support. But the overall operation is in a weak position. On the whole, PTA processing fee has room for further compression before large-scale overhaul, and polyester raw material price may continue to follow the weak crude oil price.

Main risk points

1. The progress of the epidemic led to a sharp decline in downstream demand, and the profit of raw materials was compressed upward.

2. Poor implementation of OPEC + production reduction led to further collapse of crude oil price center.