Polyester Raw Material Trend Differentiation

survey:

　　 U.S. crude oil 09 contract slightly reversed this week, with a weekly decline of only 0.12% to close near $41. The trend of Buyou 09 contract is basically the same as that of us oil, with a weekly decline of only 0.16% and closing at more than US $43. The overall external crude oil volatility trend. The main domestic crude oil contract fell by 1.09% on Friday night.

As of the reporting period, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States reached 3.8337 million, the number of deaths exceeded 140000, and the number of newly diagnosed cases in a single day reached more than 70000. Meanwhile, the epidemic situation in Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and Peru is not optimistic. The cumulative number of confirmed cases in Brazil also reached 207500.

Weaving operation rate this week by the Changxing market Jiapu area drainage backflow guidance, a substantial decline to 53%, elastic operation rate slightly dropped to 69%. Polyester load began to decline from this week to 90.90% on Friday. Polyester products were significantly accumulated again, inventory pressure was highlighted, and filament losses intensified. Polyester staple fiber accumulated for six weeks to 7.4 days. More than 9% reduction in polyester production can not be maintained. PTA converted inventory of polyester raw materials decreased slightly this week; ethylene glycol port inventory expansion is imminent, arrival volume is still relatively large, and shipment is neutral. Accumulation is expected to remain, this week's capital driven rise or difficult to maintain.

　　PTA：

PTA spot price fluctuations this week, to Friday 3485 yuan / ton. TA disk main processing poor shock narrowed this week, to Friday was 608. 1.25 million tons of Hengli 5 ? line 2 has been put into operation, and the overall 2.5 million tons of units are operating at 90% of the load. Under the new capacity base, the supply increment increases. The px-npt price differential rose slightly to $165 this week.

glycol:

　　 Ethylene glycol port inventory on July 13, the latest inventory showed a small accumulation compared with the previous period. As of July 13, MEG port inventory in East China's main port area was about 1.483 million tons, an increase of 20000 tons compared with the previous period. According to the shipping report, from July 13 to July 19, the total amount of goods delivered by the four major ports is expected to be 268000 tons, It is still at a higher level. The problem of port storage capacity may lead to the slow increase of dominant inventory, and the actual arrival volume is generally significantly lower than the arrival forecast quantity, and the accumulation of explicit inventory will slow down.

Cost and profit

1 raw material Market

1.1 crude oil, NPT, PX

Based on CFR Japanese naphtha, naphtha (CFR Japan) basically showed a downward trend this week, falling to $379 / T on Friday. U.S. crude oil 09 contract slightly reversed this week, with a weekly decline of only 0.12% to close near $41. The trend of Buyou 09 contract is basically the same as that of us oil, with a weekly decline of only 0.16% and closing at more than US $43. The overall external crude oil volatility trend. Crude oil price difference narrowed to usd-62 on Friday; crude oil price difference narrowed sharply to usd-62 on Friday. PX (CFR China) prices surged higher in the week to $544 / T on Friday. The px-npt spread rose slightly this week to $165 on Friday.

PX's Asian operating rate rebounded slightly this week, rising 1.38% to 76% month on month; PX China's operating rate rose sharply from 2.9% to 84.10% month on month.

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2. Changes in cost and profit

The average price of oil to ethylene glycol spot price fluctuated within the week, rose to 3475 yuan on Friday, and the average price within the week was about 3461 yuan, which was stable compared with last week's price center, equivalent to about 3261-3311 yuan of coal based contract price. In the chart, it is based on the nearby spot price - 3200 yuan / ton. The coal to ethylene glycol deficit intensified for six consecutive weeks, with the highest regional loss of - 1400 yuan. The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is stable at $800 / T. The cash flow loss of ethylene glycol production decreased to around - 109 US dollars. The loss of cash flow from naphtha to ethylene glycol decreased to around us $40 / T. The cash flow loss of methanol MTO production line decreased slightly to - 1032 yuan / ton. The ethylene glycol process lines were in full deficit, but the loss was eased on a month on month basis.

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Supply

1. Equipment maintenance

　 From July 1, 2020, the polyester production base will be upgraded to 61.1 million tons, including Shenghong 250000 tons (filament), Yisheng 250000 tons (bottle flakes), Yijin 100000 tons (staple fiber) and Yihua 200000 tons (staple fiber). Recently, some units have begun to reduce production, while new units are still put into operation. Polyester load moderate down, as of this Friday polyester load at 90.9%. Polyester production and sales this week, in addition to the FDY cut price promotion in the middle of the week, the production and sales rate reached 100%, the rest of the days were maintained light.

Table 1: recent changes in major polyester plants:

Data source: CCF Zhongzhou energy and Chemical Research Institute

PTA domestic plant: as the 2.5 million ton PTA plant of Hengli phase 5 was put into operation at the end of June, the PTA capacity base was adjusted to 54.83 million tons. Hengli's 5 × 2.5 million tons new plant, the second 1.25 million tons of which was put into operation last weekend, has a load of 90% of the 2.5 million tons unit.

Table 2: recent changes of PTA main units:

Data source: CCF Zhongzhou energy and Chemical Research Institute

Ethylene glycol unit: coal to ethylene glycol unit load continued to rise, and the comprehensive operating rate rose slightly. As of July 16, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in China was 59.34%. The start-up load of coal to ethylene glycol was 44.38%.

Table 3: recent changes in major MEG units

Data source: CCF Zhongzhou energy and Chemical Research Institute

Commissioning of new units: the first 200000 tons of coal to ethylene glycol plant of Xinjiang Tianye and 400000 tons of Zhongke refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. are in the commissioning stage, and are expected to supply the market from July to August. Sinochem Quanzhou's 500 000 t / a MEG new equipment's reverse commissioning plan was postponed to around the end of August.

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?2 PTA inventory

PTA plant inventory for seven consecutive weeks to maintain stable at 5.5 days. PTA raw material inventory of polyester plant was stable at 10 days for three consecutive weeks. In fact, the total social inventory of PTA conversion is the total of PTA inventory and polyester product inventory, which is slightly lower than last week. PTA raw material inventory is slightly removed this week, while polyester finished product inventory is slightly accumulated, which is actually the transfer of inventory. Absolute inventory is still the highest level of the same period in nearly four years.

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3. Ethylene glycol import and port inventory

Ethylene glycol port inventory on July 13, the latest inventory showed a small accumulation compared with the previous period. As of July 13, MEG port inventory in East China's main port area was about 1.483 million tons, an increase of 20000 tons compared with the previous period. According to the shipping report, from July 13 to July 19, the total amount of the four major ports is expected to be 268000 tons, still at a higher level. There was a decline in arrivals for two weeks in a row - or related to an increase in overseas plant maintenance. In recent days, the average daily shipment from Taicang and Taicang is about 12000 tons per day. The problem of port storage capacity may lead to the slow increase of dominant inventory, the actual arrival volume is generally significantly lower than the forecast arrival volume, the port detention is more serious, and the accumulation of dominant inventory slows down.

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demand

1 polyester

1.1 operating rate and polyester plant

Polyester has a large number of maintenance plans announced for two consecutive weeks, and the overall load began to decline this week, to 90.90% on Friday, which is still the second lowest level only lower than the level in 2018. Last week, the polyester yarn loading rate dropped sharply to 77.0% from the previous week to 77.0% in the long spinning period, and the polyester production rate dropped sharply to 77.0% compared with that in the long spinning period. The operating rate of direct spinning polyester staple is still the highest level in the same period of history; the operating rate of polyester filament is still only higher than the next low level in the same period of 16 years; the operating rate of polyester bottle sheet is still the lowest level in the same period of history.

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1.2 polyester inventory

Inventory changes of downstream polyester products: PET filament only FDY small stock removal: POY large accumulation of 1.8 days to 20.7 days, FDY small to 17.8 days, DTY inventory significantly accumulated 2 days to 31.6 days. Polyester staple fiber has been accumulated for six consecutive weeks, and the current stock is 7.4 days, with a month on month increase of 1.4 days. Polyester bottle piece inventory to maintain last week's inventory level of 20 days above. The inventory of polyester staple fiber rebounded to the highest level in the same period of the previous year; the inventory of polyester filament and polyester bottle piece maintained the highest level in the same period of previous years. As of this week: polyester products inventory has rebounded to the highest level in the same period of previous years, and the inventory pressure is obvious.

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Terminal 2

This week, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and texturing continued to decline. Up to now, the operating rates of loom and texturing are 53% and 69% respectively. In the same period, the water jet printing and dyeing stations in Zhejiang and Zhejiang had the lowest operation rate in the same period. The operating rate of comprehensive spring loading dropped slightly by 3%, which was the lowest level in the same period of previous years. During the week, FDY made a large loss in sales promotion, and the terminal purchase was followed up slightly. Only on Wednesday, partial transaction volume was slightly increased, and the production and sales rate reached 100%.

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The number of grey fabric inventory days of sample weaving enterprises in Shengze area rose again from 5.25 to 44.5 days at present, which is the highest level in the same period of previous years. Under the influence of the epidemic situation, the off-season of this year came earlier than that of previous years, and began to accumulate continuously at the end of may (in previous years, grey fabric inventory began to accumulate until the end of June to the beginning of July). Under the background of off-season, grey cloth inventory is still expected to continue to accumulate. In the same period, the light textile volume is not much different from that in the end of June. In the second half of the year, the peak season demand of gold, silver and ten may begin to manifest in the middle of August. There is also a risk of delaying or not flourishing in the peak season. We should pay attention to the development of the epidemic situation.