Medium Term Forecast Of Medical Device Listed Companies

Shi lichen, head of Beijing Dingchen medical management center, told the 21st century economic reporter that the market rate of medical devices in the second half of the year will continue to improve, because the epidemic situation in foreign countries is still very serious, and there is still a huge demand for medical devices such as ventilators.

As of July 27, wind data shows that 38 out of 69 medical device enterprises have announced their interim report performance forecast in 2020. Among them, 29 medical device enterprises, such as Yingke medical, are expected to increase their net profit in the first half of 2020 compared with the same period of the same period. Nearly half of the enterprises' net profit increases by more than 100%. The expected net profit of three enterprises remains unchanged or decreases year on year, while only 6 enterprises such as alpeng technology show a year-on-year decrease in net profit. Among them, Lidman's net profit decreased by a large margin and suffered losses.

According to the 21st century economic report, the reporter found that the enterprises with a relatively large growth rate were mainly affected by the epidemic situation. The demand for medical protection products at home and abroad was huge, and the related enterprises could also provide sufficient production capacity. However, the loss of some enterprises with the decrease of net profit is also due to the influence of the epidemic. For example, during the epidemic period, the normal diagnosis and treatment of domestic medical institutions was restricted, resulting in the decrease of net profit of Lidman and top nine biological products.

On July 27, Shi lichen, head of Beijing Dingchen medical management center, told reporters of the 21st century economic report that the market rate of medical devices in the second half of the year will continue to improve, because the epidemic situation in foreign countries is still very serious, and the demand for ventilator and other medical devices is still huge. From the list, most of the listed medical device companies are on the list of the Ministry of Commerce. "In the second half of the year, although the state promotes centralized procurement in the medical device industry, it mainly focuses on high-value consumables, which has a greater impact on multinational enterprises."

Nearly 100% up

According to the wind data, among the 38 enterprises that announced interim performance forecasts, the mid year net profit and growth rate of British Medical Group ranked first in the board. Among them, the forecast net profit was 1.9-2.100 billion yuan, with an expected growth rate of 2581.80% - 2864.10%. Zhende medical, Oriental biology and Daan gene are the second, and the maximum growth rate is expected to exceed 1200%.

Among them, Zhende medical reported a net profit of 985-1.015 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1538.97% - 1588.89%, Oriental biological forecast net profit of 463 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1294.1%, and Da'an gene forecast net profit of 620-800 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 924.57% - 1222.03%.

In addition, there are 9 enterprises, such as Lidman and top 9 biology, whose net profit growth has decreased, while the net profit growth of Lepu medical is between - 10% and 10%. In addition, tianzhihang-u and Lidman suffered losses. Lidman forecast net profit of - 08 million yuan to - 04 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 197.94% - 148.96%, ranking the largest loss proportion. The losses of aipeng medical and Jiuqiang biology were less than 100% on a year-on-year basis.

The reporter of 21st century economic report found that most of the enterprises with relatively large growth or net profit growth decline or even loss are affected by the epidemic.

The global demand for disposable protective gloves has surged due to the impact of the new type of coronavirus, and the price of disposable protective gloves has increased greatly, which has increased the sales revenue and gross profit margin of the company during the reporting period. Since August 2019, the company has laid out Anhui production base, and the PVC glove production line and nitrile glove production line have been put into operation, which has increased the glove production capacity in the reporting period year on year. At the same time, the U.S. trade representative's office has exempted import tariffs on a variety of medical products imported from China, and the surge in demand for protective products such as masks and isolation clothing also contributed to the growth.

Zhende medical said that the growth was due to the substantial increase in the sales of anti epidemic protective products (mainly masks, protective clothing and isolation clothing products). In addition, the company acquired 55% equity of British rocialle healthcare limited in 2019, which further expanded the sales channels and improved the overall market share and coverage.

Many enterprises also suffered from the negative impact of the epidemic. For example, Lidman's main business is R & D, production and sales of in-vitro diagnostic reagents. The company's net profit growth in the first half of the year has dropped sharply, with an estimated loss of 4-8 million yuan and a profit of 8.1696 million yuan in the same period of last year.

Lidman explained that due to the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic, the number of routine outpatient inspection in domestic medical institutions decreased year on year. With the gradual control of the domestic epidemic situation, the inspection volume of medical institutions and physical examination centers at all levels in the second quarter increased compared with that in the first quarter, but the biochemical detection volume still did not reach the same level in the same period last year. The sales volume of biochemical diagnostic reagents of the company declined, and the company's overall business income The decrease on a year-on-year basis resulted in a loss in the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company.

On July 14, the company released the performance forecast. The company estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies from January to June 2020 was 32.9415 million to 46.1181 million, with a year-on-year change of - 75.00% to - 65.00%, and the average net profit growth rate of medical device service industry was - 0.95%.

Jiuqiang bio explained that during the epidemic period, the company's raw material procurement, production arrangement, logistics distribution and commercial promotion were restricted to a certain extent, and the production and operation were affected to a certain extent. As a result, the sales orders in the first half of 2020 were reduced, and the company's operating income and profits were also decreased.

Ventilator Market

In recent years, China's medical device market has been growing rapidly. From the perspective of industry scale, Guoxin Securities pointed out that China's medical device industry has maintained a high growth in recent years. In 2018, the domestic medical device market scale exceeded 530 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of about 20%. In recent three years, the growth has been steady. From the perspective of subdivided fields, due to strong technical barriers and high unit price, the market scale of medical equipment accounts for the highest proportion, more than 50%.

However, Shi lichen pointed out to the reporter of the 21st century economic report that the technical threshold of medical devices is relatively high. Large equipment such as CT, MRI, ventilator, anesthesia machine, especially high-end medical equipment, are still mainly imported products. Although the trend of import substitution has begun to appear at present, it still needs a certain amount of technology accumulation before comprehensive and rapid import substitution.

During the epidemic period, the domestic ventilator also came out of a wave of market. Affected by the epidemic situation at home and abroad, the surge in ventilator orders also makes the capital market "excited" for ventilator concept stocks.

For example, the aerospace Changfeng, which was attached to the side of "ventilator", started on March 20 and started around 10 yuan, with the first trading limit. On March 27, aerospace Changfeng issued the announcement on clarification of media reports, saying that the developed severe ventilator Athena 8500 At present, it is in the product registration stage, and has not obtained the Chinese medical device product registration certificate. At present, it has not been mass-produced and has not formed actual sales in China. But the clarification announcement also can't stand the favor of the market. By the end of April 2, the stock price of aerospace Changfeng had risen to 22.28 yuan, up 113% in just 10 trading days.

Yuyue medical, an authentic ventilator enterprise, said on the interactive platform on April 1 that the company's noninvasive ventilator was granted the emergency use authorization (EUA) of FDA on April 1, which can be used clinically during the outbreak of covid-19 in the United States. The specific impact on the performance depends on the actual business situation. On February, the company's stock price rose again.

In addition to helping the stock price rise, judging from the performance forecast of the interim report, these enterprises have also made great achievements. According to the above-mentioned performance forecast of 2020 interim report, the net profit of many ventilator related enterprises has maintained a growth trend. For example, Lepu medical is expected to make a net profit of 113-118 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 590% - 620%, ranking first in the growth rate of ventilator concept stocks. It is estimated that the net profit of medical treatment will increase by RMB 10-66 billion. The net profit of Mindray medical is expected to be 3.269-3.506 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 38.00% - 48.00%.

According to the mid year report of Wandong Medical Co., Ltd., the profit growth is mainly due to the increase in sales of mobile DR and other related products in the half year of 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic. Huatai Securities expects that mobile DR and Dr of the company's anti epidemic products will continue to develop and maintain growth, while other products such as MRI, CT and DSA will gradually recover.

According to the mid year report of Mindray medical, due to the epidemic situation, the demand for monitors, ventilators, infusion pumps, portable color ultrasound and mobile Dr of the company's life information and support production line increased significantly, especially the pulling effect on the life information and support production line. In 2020, the company began to export some of its new reagents to the overseas market.

Industrial Securities said that after the epidemic, the construction of ICU in China will be gradually implemented. It is estimated that the total incremental demand for ventilators will be 15342 in 2020, an increase of 30.15% year-on-year. In 2016, the output of respirators increased by nearly US $66.58 billion, about US $2.58 billion. In 2018, China's medical ventilator market scale reached 2.43 billion yuan, with an annual growth rate of about 15%. Compared with developed countries in Europe and America, there is still a big gap in the per capita ventilator population in China.

It can be seen that the demand for ventilators will remain high in the second half of the year, whether in the domestic market or in the overseas market where the epidemic situation is still serious, and the performance of relevant companies can still be expected.

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