Controversy Over "False High" Credit Rating

Since this year, many issuers have been upgraded by rating agencies.

According to wind data, as of July 29, more than 200 issuers have been upgraded their main credit ratings, which is higher than the same period last year.

However, under the influence of the current epidemic situation, many enterprises are under pressure. Compared with the situation of credit rating upgrade in a wide range, the market dispute about "false high" rating is also emerging. For example, recently, a district level urban investment company and Nantong Economic and Technological Development Zone Holding Group Co., Ltd. obtained AAA rating, which caused various doubts in the market.

"Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the financing environment has been relaxed. Upgrading the rating is a win-win thing for the rating companies and issuers. Everyone is willing to do it, and it is a kind of packaging for the seller. But for investors, there is a high risk. If the rating can not reflect and distinguish the credit status of the issuer, the rating is equivalent to fictitious, which is also unfavorable to the bond market. " On July 29, a bond fund manager of a private placement agency in Beijing told the reporter of the 21st century economic report.

In fact, with the release of annual tracking rating reports, the current credit rating of issuers also shows different characteristics.

"AAA" in a pile

According to wind data, as of July 29 this year, 226 issuers have been upgraded.

According to the research on open source securities, 2020 has entered the second half of the year, and although the rating tracking period is only more than half of the time, it can be roughly seen from the current trend of rating adjustment that rating agencies roughly set the marginal adjustment of credit in 2020. The current rate of increase is 2.69% (as of July 12), which is close to 3.04% of the whole year in 2019. On the whole, both the upward and downward rates in 2020 are likely to be significantly higher than those in the same period in 2019, and there will be differentiation between the upward and downward adjustment of the main body level.

According to the data, 85 of the 226 issuers were upgraded to AAA, accounting for 38%; 112 issuers were upgraded to AA +, accounting for 50%; 6 issuers were upgraded to AA -, accounting for 3%; 21 issuers were upgraded to AA, accounting for 9%; and 2 issuers were upgraded to a +, accounting for 1%.

If measured by debt credit rating, the proportion of bonds upgraded to AAA is higher.

According to the 21st century economic report, as of July 29, 672 bonds have been upgraded, of which 402 bonds have been upgraded to AAA, accounting for 60%, and 254 bonds have been upgraded to AA +, accounting for 38%.

"On the whole, there are a lot of AAA and AA + issuers in the market as a whole, but many bonds tend to start the" several successive downgrades "mode after the occurrence of material default. There are too many AAA's now to distinguish risks. " In the opinion of the above-mentioned institutions.

According to wind data, the 21st century economic report found that in the credit upgrade during this period, the number of issuers who upgraded the main credit rating of cicci was the largest, with 53; followed by joint credit rating and joint credit rating, with 47 issuers and 42 Dagong international.

"The number of issuers who raise their ratings every year is generally higher than those who have been downgraded. Over time, the overall rating of the market may be getting higher and higher, just like the AAA rating of all district and county-level urban investment companies." A large-scale broker in the 21st century told a reporter in Beijing.

In fact, since this year, the proportion of state-owned enterprises that have been upgraded is still relatively large. Among the 226 issuers whose subject rating has been upgraded, 187 issuers are state-owned enterprises, accounting for 83%; in addition, there are 27 private enterprises, 2 Sino foreign joint ventures and 2 wholly foreign-owned enterprises.

From the industry of issuers, 99 companies belong to the capital goods industry, which is also the largest industry, followed by banks, real estate and diversified financial industries, with more than 20 issuers.

Secondly, as far as the real estate industry is concerned, it is worth mentioning that there are more issuers in the real estate industry.

"Since the second half of 2019, the tightening of financing policies for real estate enterprises has not fundamentally changed. However, under the relatively loose monetary policy environment, the liquidity of real estate enterprises has been improved, and the financing cost has also decreased Cao run, senior deputy director of corporate rating Department of China integrity international, pointed out.

Increased differentiation

At the same time, many issuers' credit rating has been adjusted to 73. Among them, there is an obvious phenomenon of credit differentiation.

For example, the city investment company, which accounts for the majority of the credit rating increase, also has a number of issuers to decline.

Zunyi City Investment Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Zunyi City Investment and Construction Co., Ltd.") issued the latest rating of "Zunyi City Investment and Construction Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as" Zunyi City Investment and Construction Co., Ltd.) (hereinafter referred to as "Zunyi City Investment and Construction Co., Ltd.) (hereinafter referred to as" Zunyi City Investment and Construction Co., Ltd.) (hereinafter referred to as "Zunyi City Investment and Construction Co., Ltd." (hereinafter referred to as "Zunyi City Investment and Construction Co., Ltd.) (hereinafter referred to as" Zunyi City Investment Group ") issued the latest" April 17 " The credit rating of "02" is AA.

Zhongchengxin pointed out that this year, under the effect of anti epidemic policies, the issuance of urban investment bonds will reach a new high, the growth rate of implicit debt dominated by interest bearing debts of urban investment may rise again, and the debt ratio and debt ratio index will further rise. Under the background of the current economic downward pressure, the differentiation of regional economic and financial strength is intensified, and the structural risk of debt, especially in regions with weak economic and financial resources, needs further attention.

According to its prediction of the provincial debt risk index in 2020, nearly half of the provinces' risk index has increased. If the implicit debt is considered, the risk index of each province will be significantly higher than that of the dominant debt. The lower risk index is still Guangdong, Zhejiang and Shanghai, and the higher risk index is also concentrated in the northeast and western regions.

In contrast, the differentiation and Matthew effect of the real estate industry are more obvious.

"Affected by the epidemic, funds and resources tend to be high-quality real estate enterprises, and the Matthew effect of the industry is intensified. In addition, under the guidance of the CBRC window, the scale of trust financing will be further reduced in the second half of the year, and real estate enterprises with trust as the main financing structure may face greater refinancing pressure. " According to Cao run.

Kaiyuan securities also pointed out that as the industry continues to clear up, regional real estate leaders enjoy the scale advantage they already have, and the second and third tier cities with good economic foundation may further benefit in the future. In the future, we may see more AA or AA + regional real estate enterprise subject level upgrade.

"Generally speaking, credit risk is still in a relatively high incidence period, but it is not as big as the year-on-year growth rate of the previous two years. The amount of credit default this year is almost the same as that of last year, which is still at a relatively high level, but it has not continued to grow significantly. On the one hand, the cash flow of enterprises affected by the epidemic is relatively fragile, but on the other hand, the state has issued a lot of relevant policies in the first half of the year. M2, the total amount of social financing and credit growth are relatively fast, which also provide some funds for enterprises to alleviate potential pressure. " Shen Wan Hongyuan securities fixed income financing headquarters deputy general manager Fan Wei said.

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