Negative Fundamentals Under Pressure PTA Price Shocks Down In July

As of the beginning of July, the average price of PTA fell by 29.42% compared with the same period of July. In July, new units were put into operation, terminal demand was weak, supply increased, inventory was high, fundamentals were under pressure, prices fluctuated downward, cost support and terminal demand were purchased on bargain at the end of the month, and the tail showed a slight recovery.

In terms of factory price, Yisheng Petrochemical announced that the PTA contract settlement price in July was 3570 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton compared with the previous month; Hengli Petrochemical Company's PTA settlement price in July was 3528.07 yuan / ton, and the advance collection in August was 3700 yuan / ton; the PTA settlement price in July was 3528 yuan / ton, and the PTA advance collection in August was 3800 yuan / ton; the PTA settlement price in July was 3730 yuan / ton, and the advance collection in August was 3800 yuan / ton.

In terms of the plant, the 4.5 million ton PTA plant of fuhaichuang was put into operation with reduced load on July 9 and restored to full load on July 14. Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.2 million ton PTA plant was shut down in the evening of July 12, and it is planned to overhaul for about 2 weeks. Luoyang Petrochemical 32.5 plans to overhaul at the end of July. PTA start-up load decreased from 92% at the beginning of the month to about 88%, but it remained high. The new plant Hengli Dalian line 5 is 2.5 million tons, of which 1.25 million tons were put into operation on June 28, produced products on June 29 and started operation on July 2 to 90%. Another production line of 1.25 million tons was put into operation on the evening of July 11, and the overall load has reached 90%.

At present, most of the PTA plants are not active in reducing the production cost of 550 yuan / ton. At present, PTA plant maintenance plan is mostly concentrated in August. Huabin Petrochemical 1.4 million tons / year unit is planned to be shut down for maintenance in late August, Ningbo Taihua 1.2 million tons / year unit is expected to be shut down for about half a month on August 3, and Shanghai Yadong Petrochemical 700 thousand tons / year unit is planned to be overhauled for 3 days at the end of August. It is expected that PTA plant will be overhauled as planned in August, and the start-up load will decrease slightly.

In terms of inventory, PTA market is still facing a certain contradiction between supply and demand. The demand side support is weak, and the inventory is further increased. PTA total inventory has been hovering at a historic high of 3.5 million tons in recent months. The possibility of large-scale removal of PTA inventory in the future is small, and the imbalance between supply and demand will remain for a long time. At present, the social inventory of PTA is constantly rising. As of the week of July 24, PTA social inventory reached 3.95 million tons, a record high.

Affected by the OPEC + crude oil production reduction agreement, the oil price is supported. At present, the factors restricting the continued rise of crude oil are still the concerns of demand. The crude oil price in July has significantly narrowed. As of July 28, the closing price of WTI main contract was 41.04 USD / barrel, up 3.06% compared with the beginning of the month. As of July 28, Asian PX (CFR China) closed at US $558 / T, up 3.14% from the beginning of the month. Recently, overseas units have come to an end and are being restarted gradually. The domestic start-up load is basically stable. At present, PX is still in a deficit state. At present, the cumulative domestic inventory of 2.5 million tons of devices has been recovered.

In terms of downstream demand, Jinyi polyester plant was put into operation, and polyester production capacity was increased by 100000 tons / year. Polyester comprehensive operation rose to more than 87%. The characteristics of the off-season are obvious, the foreign trade demand is still in the recovery period, the number of orders is small, the terminal textile market is still light, the enthusiasm of textile factories to purchase raw materials is not high, and the transaction atmosphere is general. At the same time, with the gradual deepening of summer, some weaving and printing and dyeing enterprises have entered the summer vacation mode, which has a negative impact on the upstream product delivery. Under the background of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the start-up rate was down to 55% year on year. The demand for raw materials gradually weakened, resulting in the continuous accumulation of inventory, high inventory has become a common problem, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 30-39 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is up to 9-16 days, FDY inventory is around 20-27 days, and DTY inventory is about 28-39 days. Near the end of the month procurement, polyester factories generally reduce the preferential power, have a strong speculation mentality.

From the perspective of PXA's crude oil supply, PXA will face an increasing pressure on the domestic crude oil supply, so PXA will face a pressure on the overall supply of crude oil, so PXA will face pressure on the overall supply of crude oil. At the same time, PTA start-up and inventory are maintained at a high level, and the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to improve under the background of off-season terminal, and the market is expected to weaken in early August. In the second ten days of August, PTA plant maintenance will increase, and the inventory pressure may decrease. In addition, the recovery of orders in the terminal textile market will boost the upstream market to a certain extent. Therefore, it is expected that PTA Market in August will show a "V" trend.