Polyester Load High To Maintain Stability, Raw Material Supply And Demand In August Improved

survey:

　 The US crude oil 09 contract started a correction last week, with a weekly decline of 2.2% to close at $40.43. The weekly decline of oil distribution 10 contract was small, 0.41% to close at $43.71. Crude oil in the external market may have several small corrections, but it does not change the overall upward trend of shock. Domestic SC crude oil 09 main contract weekly decline as high as 3.28%, continued to fall on Friday night. The inner disk is obviously weaker than the outer disk.

The number of confirmed cases in the United States has reached 4.7643 million by the end of the reporting period, with a death toll of nearly 160000, and more than 50000 new confirmed cases in a single day. Meanwhile, the epidemic situation in Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa is not optimistic. Among them, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Brazil also reached 270800.

The weaving operation rate has been rising for two consecutive weeks. The load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has risen slightly to 66%, and the elastic working rate has risen to 77%. Polyester load last week high maintenance stable, last Friday load was 91%, polyester products inventory differentiation last week.

　　PTA：

PTA spot average price rose slightly last week to 3545 yuan / ton last Friday. TA disk main processing poor, this week shock wide, last Friday for 737. Spot processing gap widened sharply to 682 last week. Px-npt price difference remained stable at $156.

glycol:

As of July 27, MEG port inventory in East China's main port area was about 1.481 million tons, a decrease of 33000 tons compared with the previous period. According to the shipping report, from July 27 to August 2, the total amount of goods delivered by the four major ports is expected to be 214000 tons, It was more neutral. Overseas maintenance is planned to be carried out successively from August to November. Zhangjiagang and Taicang two mainstream reservoir area shipment recently unstable. The arrival volume is still significantly lower than the actual forecast.

Cost and profit

1 raw material Market

1

Based on CFR Japanese naphtha, naphtha (CFR Japan) basically showed a downward trend last week, falling to 387 US dollars / ton last Friday. The US crude oil 09 contract started a correction last week, with a weekly decline of 2.2% to close at $40.43. The weekly decline of oil distribution 10 contract was small, 0.41% to close at $43.71. Crude oil in the external market may have several small corrections, but it does not change the overall upward trend of shock. The naphtha Brent crude oil price gap narrowed sharply this week compared with last week, which was around $69 last Friday; the naphtha WTI crude oil price difference narrowed to about $91 last Friday. On Thursday, the price of PX fell to US $543 in China. The px-npt spread remains low, trading at $156 last Thursday. PX Asia's operating rate and PX China's operating rate fell sharply compared with last week.

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2. Changes in cost and profit

The average price of oil to ethylene glycol spot price fluctuated last week and rose to 3677 yuan last Friday. The average price within the week was about 3653 yuan, which was 107 yuan higher than last week's price center. The coal based contract price was about 3453-3503 yuan. In the chart, it is based on the nearby spot price - 3250 yuan / ton. The loss degree of coal to ethylene glycol is stable, and the highest regional deficit is around - 1300 yuan. The cash flow loss of ethylene glycol production decreased slightly to around - 92 U.S. dollars. Cash flow decreased to $27 per ton. The cash flow loss of MTO methanol production line was significantly restored to about - 813 yuan / ton. All ethylene glycol process lines were in full deficit, but the loss continued to ease month on month.

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supply

1. Equipment maintenance

　　 From July 1, 2020, the polyester production base will be upgraded to 61.1 million tons, including Shenghong 250000 tons (filament), Yisheng 250000 tons (bottle flakes), Yijin 100000 tons (staple fiber) and Yihua 200000 tons (staple fiber). Last week, the polyester plant was overhauled. In addition, the production of filament bottle chips was moderately reduced, and the load was lowered. As of last Friday, the polyester load was 91%. POY on Thursday, the average trading volume is about 140% in polyester.

Table 1: recent changes in major polyester plants:

　　 Data source: CCF Zhongzhou energy and Chemical Research Institute

PTA domestic plant: as the 2.5 million ton PTA plant of Hengli phase 5 was put into operation at the end of June, the PTA capacity base was adjusted to 54.83 million tons. Sinopec Luoyang 325000 ton unit will be shut down at 7.27, and it is expected to be overhauled for 40 days; Yangzi Petrochemical's 600000 ton unit is planned to be overhauled for two weeks in the first ten days of August; the 1.4 million ton unit in huabinzhen, Zhejiang Province is planned to be overhauled for two weeks in mid August; the 1.2 million ton unit in Sanfangxiang is planned to be overhauled in August. The 2.2 million ton device of Jiaxing city telephone was shut down at night on July 12, and it is planned to postpone the restart to the beginning of August.

Recent changes of PTA: 2

Data source: CCF Zhongzhou energy and Chemical Research Institute

Ethylene glycol unit: coal to ethylene glycol unit load and comprehensive operating rate continued to decline slightly. As of July, the overall load of ethylene glycol was 57.74%. The start-up load of coal to ethylene glycol was 39.06%.

Table 3: recent changes in major MEG units

Data source: CCF Zhongzhou energy and Chemical Research Institute

Commissioning of new units: the 600000 T / a coal to ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang Tianye is expected to start feeding methanol from next week, and the commissioning of ethylene glycol is expected to be postponed to mid and late August. Sinochem Quanzhou's 500 000 t / a MEG new equipment's reverse commissioning plan was postponed to around the end of August. The 300000 t / a MEG plant of Shanxi woneng Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. is expected to discharge around mid August. At present, the LNG produced by the unit has been discharged.

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2 PTA inventory

PTA plant inventory for nine consecutive weeks to maintain stable at 5.5 days. PTA raw material inventory of polyester plant was stable at 10 days for five consecutive weeks. PTA converted social total inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks. PTA absolute inventory is still the highest level of the same period in recent 4 years.

　　 Ethylene glycol import and port inventory

Ethylene glycol port inventory on July 27, the latest inventory showed a significant month on month to warehouse. Inventory levels returned to near the level of two weeks ago. As of July 27, MEG port inventory in East China's main port area was about 1.481 million tons, a decrease of 33000 tons compared with the previous period. According to the shipping report, from July 27 to August 2, the total amount of the four major ports is expected to be 214000 tons, which is more neutral. Zhangjiagang and Taicang two main reservoir areas of recent shipment instability, the two ports daily average total shipment of 5600 tons / day, the highest of 14650 tons / day. The actual arrival volume is generally significantly lower than the forecast arrival volume, and the port detention is still serious.

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Demand

1 polyester

1.1 polyester operating rate and plant change

Last week, the overall load of polyester plant was still lower than the high level of 91% in 2018. 4% to 70.4% for polyester yarn, and the polyester yarn production rate rose to 70.4% continuously. The operating rate of direct spinning polyester staple is still the highest level in the same period of history; the operating rate of polyester filament is basically the lowest level in the same period of previous years; the operating rate of polyester bottle flake is only higher than the next low level in 2019.

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1.2 polyester inventory

As of last Friday, the average stocks of POY, FDY and DTY in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 16 days, 16.8 days and 28.6 days respectively, FDY inventory increased by 0.5 days compared with last Friday, POY and DTY decreased by 1.5 days and 0.8 days respectively. Short fiber stocks rose to 6.4 days on the previous week. Polyester bottle chip inventory slightly recovered to the level around 20 days. The inventory of polyester staple fiber rebounded to the highest level in the same period of the previous year; the inventory of polyester filament and polyester bottle piece maintained the highest level in the same period of the previous year. According to the survey, some equity stocks of large bottle factories are negative.

　　 2 terminal conditions

Last week, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and texturing started to improve for two consecutive weeks. Up to now, the operating rates of looms and texturing are 66% and 77% respectively.

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The number of grey fabric inventory days of sample weaving enterprises in Shengze area has been rising continuously since 5.25. At present, it is 45 days, and the highest is over 45.5 days at the end of July. The grey fabric inventory is going to go away again, and the inflection point may appear. Under the influence of the epidemic situation, this year's off-season came earlier than in previous years, and began to accumulate continuously at the end of may (in previous years, it was not until the end of June to the beginning of July that the stock of grey cloth began to accumulate). The second half of the peak season is approaching, and it is expected that the inflection point of grey cloth inventory will continue in the peak season.