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The Negative Growth Of Textile Market Has Not Been Reversed, And The Smooth Operation In The Second Half Of The Year Is Facing Great Challenges?

2020/8/3 14:48:00 2

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Since 2020, facing the severe test and complex and changeable domestic and foreign environment brought by the new coronapneumonia epidemic, China has overcome the adverse impact of the epidemic situation and achieved steady recovery of macro-economy. During the period of fighting against the epidemic, the textile industry steadily promoted the resumption of work and production of enterprises, making due contributions to ensuring the production and supply of domestic epidemic prevention materials and meeting the needs of international epidemic prevention and control. In the second quarter, driven by the production of epidemic prevention materials and the recovery of domestic market demand, the economic operation of textile industry recovered under pressure, and the decline rate of production, investment, quality and efficiency and other major operation indicators were significantly narrowed than that in the first quarter. However, the losses caused by the impact of the epidemic have not been completely repaired, the production and operation pressure of textile enterprises is still prominent, the investment and development confidence are obviously insufficient, the negative growth trend of the industry has not been reversed, and the stable operation of the whole year is facing great challenges.

The industry's prosperity has rebounded significantly, and the decline rate of production has been steadily narrowed

In the second quarter, the prosperity of the textile industry rebounded significantly and the utilization level of production capacity accelerated. According to the survey data of China Textile Federation and the National Bureau of statistics, the prosperity index of textile industry will reach 51.0 in the second quarter of 2020, returning to the expansion range. Over the same period, the capacity utilization rate of textile industry and chemical fiber industry reached 70.3% and 77.1% respectively, rising by 3.1% and 2.7% compared with the first quarter, but slowing down by 7.9% and 6.1% respectively compared with the same period of last year.

The decline rate of industry production narrowed month by month. From January to June, the added value of textile industry above designated size decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, the growth rate was 10.3 percentage points lower than that of the same period of last year, and 9.8 percentage points lower than that of the first quarter of this year. In the whole textile industry, the production value of the whole textile industry increased by 8.57% year-on-year. Affected by the shrinking demand, the production of clothing, home textile industry and textile equipment manufacturing industry at the end of the industrial chain still showed a downward trend. The industrial added value decreased by 12.2%, 8.5% and 17.6% respectively from January to June.

The output of major categories of products has generally declined. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to June, the output of chemical fiber, yarn, cloth and clothing of Enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.0%, 15.8%, 25.9% and 13.7% year-on-year, respectively, with growth rates lower than that of the same period of last year by 13.0%, 15.5%, 25.8 and 12.6 percentage points respectively. The output of non-woven fabric increased by 6.6% year-on-year. ?

Domestic demand market continued to recover, export growth rate from negative to positive

Since the second quarter, with the opening of residents' travel and consumption activities, the domestic demand market of textiles and clothing has gradually recovered. According to the statistics of China's National Bureau of textiles and clothing, the sales volume of needles and hats decreased by more than 12.6% in the first half of 2020, a decrease of more than 6% compared with that in the first half of 2020. A series of national policies such as "protecting people's livelihood" and "promoting consumption" have accelerated the recovery of online consumption. In June, the retail sales of online wear goods in China basically recovered to the same level of the same period of last year. The cumulative retail sales from January to June decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 12.2 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter.

The outlet pressure was relieved. According to the data of China Customs, in the first half of the year, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to 130.8 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, realizing the first export growth rate from negative to positive since 2020. Due to the severe situation of international epidemic prevention and control, the scale of China's export of anti epidemic materials such as masks to Europe and the United States expanded. From January to June, the textile export value increased by 24.8% year on year, reaching 77.16 billion US dollars, accounting for 59% of the total export volume of textiles and clothing. Clothing export pressure is still prominent. The export value from January to June was 53.64 billion US dollars, down 19.4% year-on-year. The export market of the textile industry has been divided, and the export to the three traditional markets of the United States, Japan and the European Union has improved significantly. From January to June, the export amount of textiles and clothing increased by 4.2%, 15.1% and 41.1% year-on-year, respectively, which increased by 4.9%, 19.8 and 45.3 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. Due to the sluggish consumption in the international terminal market, emerging export markets such as Southeast Asia and Africa need intermediate products in the industrial chain From January to June, China's textile and clothing exports to countries along the belt and road decreased by 12.2% year on year.

The pressure of quality and efficiency improvement is still great, and the decrease rate of investment is obviously narrowed

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first half of the year, 33000 Textile Enterprises above the designated size realized a total business income of 1926.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%, a decrease of 9 percentage points compared with the first quarter; the total profit of 73.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19%, a decrease of 25.2 percentage points compared with the first quarter. The profit margin of operating income of Enterprises above designated size was 3.8%, up 1.2 percentage points from the first quarter. The profitability of industrial use and home textile industry has been improved, and the total profit increased by 216.3% and 4.1% from January to June, respectively, which is at a high level in the whole industry chain. Affected by the factors such as raw material price fluctuation, light market transaction, and order grabbing by price reduction, the benefits of chemical fiber and cotton textile industry decreased significantly, and the total profit decreased by 41.9% and 41.3% respectively year-on-year. Due to the significant increase in operating pressure, the operation quality of textile enterprises has declined. From January to June, the loss of textile enterprises above Designated Size in China reached 32.6%, and the loss of loss making enterprises increased by 50.2% year-on-year; the turnover rate of total assets and the turnover rate of finished products were 1 time / year and 10.6 times / year, respectively, slowing down by 19.9% and 25% respectively; the proportion of three fees was 7.3%, which was 0.3% higher than that of the same period of last year.

Affected by the epidemic situation, the confidence of textile enterprises is obviously insufficient, and the investment scale of the whole industrial chain is declining. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to June 2020, the completion amount of fixed assets investment in the textile industry will decrease by 27.3% year on year, with the growth rate slowing down by 26% compared with the same period of last year, but rising by 10.8% compared with the first quarter. Among them, the investment in textile industry, chemical fiber industry and clothing industry decreased by 22.4%, 16.9% and 37.9% respectively year-on-year, and the growth rate was lower than that of the same period of last year by 22.1%, 6.3% and 38.7% respectively. Compared with the same period, the investment in clothing industry of Hubei Province, central and western regions of Jiangsu Province decreased by 16.6% from the same period of last year, while the investment in clothing industry of Guangdong Province, central and western regions of Jiangsu Province decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, by 6.6% respectively %。

Positive factors continue to accumulate and maintain stable operation pressure is still large

In the first half of the year, the textile industry focused on resolving the adverse effects of the epidemic, continuously improving its development toughness and anti risk ability, and some economic indicators showed signs of recovery. However, at present, the global epidemic is still spreading, and the prospect is uncertain. The impact on the operation of global supply chain and economy will continue to develop and evolve. In the second half of the year, the textile industry is still facing more external risks and challenges, and the pressure to maintain stable operation throughout the year is still large.

In the difficult situation, there are still positive factors for the textile industry to achieve a stable recovery. The steady recovery of China's macro-economy shows strong resilience to the impact of the epidemic, especially in the aspects of complete industrial system, perfect infrastructure and strong domestic demand market. During the epidemic period, the continuous innovation in manufacturing mode, industrial chain operation mode and commercial format promoted the steady recovery of production and the improvement of consumer market, which provided a new foothold for the steady recovery of various industries. On the other hand, the effects of various macro policies issued by the state around helping enterprises to relieve poverty, ensuring employment and ensuring basic people's livelihood will continue to work, providing an important guarantee for gradually unblocking the economic cycle and promoting the economy to return to normal track.

We will continue to implement the policy-making of the central government to ensure the stability of the supply chain of the textile industry We should make due contributions to the implementation of the "six stability" work and the "six guarantees" task, complete the task of national economic development in 2020, achieve the decisive victory, build a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and fight against poverty.