Market Review And August Outlook Of Chemical Fiber Industry Chain In July 2020

The first part is a brief introduction

In July, the upstream and downstream products of polyester industry chain showed a low fluctuation trend. International crude oil fluctuated around the high level of 40 US dollars / barrel, forming a certain support for the market. With the end of cost fluctuation, polyester industry chain market returns to fundamentals. In the middle and early ten days, the polyester raw material market continued to weaken due to high inventory and low demand. Under the pressure of cost, the polyester product market was weak. In the second ten days of this year, the polyester market began to rebound and the market began to fall.

List of chemical fiber industry in July

In terms of polyester chip, compared with the month of polyester, polyester fiber decreased by 35.1% on the month, while polyester fiber decreased by 10.6% compared with that of polyester fiber, while that of polyester fiber decreased by 10.6% compared with that of polyester fiber.

The second part analyzes the rise and fall situation and trend of chemical fiber industry chain in July

Jinlianchuang chemical fiber industrial chain monitors the monthly average prices of seven chemical fiber products and raw materials. As shown in Figure 1, the monthly average price of chemical fiber products only rose in July, while the monthly average prices of other products decreased to varying degrees, with the decline range of 2-10% in the month. The biggest drop was Px, up 9.84%, and polyester filament, the smallest, rose 0.77%.

According to the statistics of the rise and fall of various products in the chemical fiber industry chain in July, as shown in Figure 2, the chemical fiber industry chain market was mainly weak and volatile during the month, with a significant decline compared with the same period last year. As can be seen from the year-on-year data, the overall decline was between 20-43%, with PTA falling by 43.43%, and ethylene glycol with a decline of 19.77% was the smallest.

Market analysis of main products of differentiated fiber chain

PX

However, as of the end of May, the price of USD 54t / FOB / USD 54t / USD / USD / USD 54t were higher than that of USD 54t in Asia and USD 52T / USD in China at the end of May.

At the beginning of the month, PX market stalled and reorganized, and Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. resumed the 600 kt / a PX plant, and domestic supply increased. In addition, due to the bearish mood of the whole polyester chain, the businesses worried that the terminal demand would be difficult to improve. However, the crude oil remained firm, the industrial chain sentiment was good, the business offer was partial to stick, PTA started high, and the demand for PX was good, which supported the market sentiment.

In the first ten days, WTI crude oil basically fluctuated around $40 / barrel. The upstream raw material market fluctuated little, and PX basically kept up with the trend of downstream market. Although supply and demand are booming at present, PX and PTA are still at high stock level. In addition, foreign epidemic situation severely suppresses market sentiment, and merchants mainly follow the market. At the end of the month, businesses mainly focus on ACP negotiation, and the market atmosphere is flat, although the upstream market is relatively stable However, due to the tension between China and the United States, the general buying sentiment of PX, as well as the continued weak demand for terminal polyester, merchants' intention to sell PX cargo in September and October increased.

At the end of the month, Sinopec announced that the PX settlement price in July was 4420 yuan / ton, which was 30 yuan / ton lower than that of the previous month. In July, the CFR Taiwan / China average price was $542.77/t, up 1.78% month on month and 36.11% lower than the same period last year. The lowest price appeared at 534 US dollars / ton on July 1 and the highest price appeared at 552 US dollars / ton on July 24.

PTA

Generally speaking, PTA will be closed in July. At the beginning of the month, the crude oil price was high, and the cost side supported the PTA market firmly. PTA new plant put into operation, operating rate remained high, inventory continued high, suppressed market price. The terminal textile orders are insufficient, the weaving start-up rate is declining, the downstream polyester profits are low, the production enterprises are willing to reduce production, and the PTA supply and demand fundamentals are weak.

On the 9th, the spot offer of the main port of East China implemented the 2009 contract reduction of 70-75 yuan / ton, and the delivery price reduced by 80 yuan / ton. The negotiation focused on 3530-3570 yuan / ton. In the middle of the year, the international crude oil price was running in a narrow range, and the PX market was shaken and sorted out. The cost side formed a certain support for the PTA market. Hengli Petrochemical's 2.5 million ton new unit is in normal operation, the operating rate remains high, PTA supply is sufficient, and the accumulation mode is continued. Moreover, the production reduction of downstream polyester factories is general, the demand continues to be sluggish, the inventory is accumulated, the production and sales of terminal weaving are weak, and the supply and demand fundamentals of PTA are weak.

On the 23rd, the spot offer of the main port of East China will be reduced by 50-55 yuan / ton in 2009 contract and 55-60 yuan / ton in the delivery offer. The negotiation will focus on 3480-3520 yuan / ton. The price of PX is stable and the price of PX is stable, which supports the international market. The external economic atmosphere is strong, the macro mood is warm, boosting PTA market. However, the normal operation of PTA new plant, high start and high inventory, to a certain extent, suppress the market. The cumulative supply and demand situation of PTA terminal is not weak, and the demand of traditional polyester is not weak.

On the 30th, the spot offer of the main port of East China implemented the 2009 contract reduction of 30-35 yuan / ton and the delivery offer of 40 yuan / ton. The negotiation focused on 3540-3550 yuan / ton. In July, the average price of PTA Market in East China was 3523 yuan / ton, down 2.19% month on month and 43.43% year on year. The highest price was 3630 yuan / ton on the 6th and 3440 yuan / ton on the 20th.

MEG

Ethylene glycol market bottomed out and recovered in July. During the month, the international crude oil remained at a high level of US $40 / barrel. Ethylene glycol cost support is relatively stable. With the end of cost volatility, the glycol market is looking back to fundamentals. At the beginning of the month, the port congestion was serious, the port inventory rose at a high level, and the downstream polyester centralized load reduction maintenance news was added, which increased the market's worry about oversupply, and the ethylene glycol futures market went down sharply. In the last ten days, affected by the overhaul of ethylene glycol units at home and abroad, the expected contraction of ethylene glycol supply boosted the bullish confidence of the market, and drove the low price rebound. By the end of the 30th, the negotiation will be conducted around 3625-3635 yuan / ton.

Polyester bottle piece

In July, the domestic bottle grade pet market showed a weak trend of concussion. Polyester raw material PTA market range finishing, the cost support is general. Recently, the manufacturers of bottle chips have not been able to deliver the products. The preferential range of the manufacturers' negotiation has been enlarged. The middle dealers mainly sell the goods at low prices, and the market negotiation focus continues to weaken. During the month, the units of Yuanfang, Anhua, Chenggao and Pushi were still in shutdown, and the overall supply of the market was limited, forming a certain support for the market. At present, although it is still in the peak season of demand, due to the influence of epidemic situation and domestic flood disasters, the terminal demand is not as high as that in previous years. Moreover, the export advantage of bottle manufacturers is weakened, and the overall export volume is declining, so the bottle manufacturers still have great sales pressure. Downstream demand continued to be weak, maintain a cautious wait-and-see, only to maintain just demand buying. By the end of last ten days, the market price in East China fell to 5150-5300 yuan / ton. With the gradual shrinkage of the profits of bottle manufacturers, manufacturers continue to reduce the price intention, and the market price gradually remains stable. As of July 31, the average price of bottle grade PET in East China in July was 5335 yuan / ton, down 5.14% month on month and 29.24% year on year. The highest price was 5600 yuan / ton on July 1 and the lowest price was 5150 yuan / ton on July 21.

Polyester chip

In July, the polyester chip market was weak, and the overall trading atmosphere was general. However, the price of PET chips fell sharply in the second ten days, and the price of PET chips fell sharply. The price of PET chips fell sharply in the first ten days of the year, but the price of PET chips fell sharply. The price of PET chips fell sharply in the first ten days of the year, while the price of PET chips fell sharply. However, after the middle of the year, the price of PET chips was still in a downward trend, and the price of PET chips was still in a weak state, and the price of polyester chips was still in a weak state of supply and demand, while the price of polyester chips was still weak in the downstream market. At the end of the month, the overseas epidemic situation became more and more serious, the international original price fell, the cost driving effect weakened, and the downstream buyer's market still had the upper hand, the polyester chip cash flow continued to lose, the factory inventory was in a reasonable range, and the market focus was in a dilemma. As of July 31, the average market price of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester chips was 4513 yuan / ton, down 6.35% month on month and 39.18% year on year. The highest price was 4650 yuan / ton on July 1 and the lowest price was 4400 yuan / ton on 23 July.

Polyester staple fiber

The polyester staple fiber market continued to decline in July. Due to the fact that July is still in the traditional off-season of polyester staple fiber, coupled with the repeated epidemic situation in foreign countries, the raw material end fluctuates in a wide range, and the cost support is general, thus restraining the rise of polyester staple market. Under the condition of low pressure and low profit of manufacturers' inventory, the decline range of polyester staple fiber market is limited. Although there is a small recovery in the last ten days, there is not enough favorable support, and the market is only 50 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the month, the polyester staple fiber market was at a low price, and the downstream yarn mills had a strong mentality of bottom copy. The production and sales of polyester staple fiber were locally higher than 200-400%. The inventory of polyester staple fiber manufacturers was alleviated, but the market momentum was insufficient. Polyester staple fiber factory is still mainly on sales promotion. However, in the second half of the month, the cost side support was fair, staple fiber profits fell sharply, the market price has dropped to the factory cost line, and the production and sales volume has gradually increased, but the overall strength is still limited. As of July 30, the average price of polyester staple fiber in East China was 5388 yuan / ton, down 6.85% month on month and 33.39% year on year. The highest price was 5600 yuan / ton on July 1 and the lowest price was 5250 yuan / ton on July 30. The price of short fiber decreased by RMB 5700.7mm/month compared with that of Sinopec. Jiangsu Sanfangxiang chemical fiber polyester staple fiber price of 1.4d semi gloss polyester staple was reported to 5450 yuan / ton in July.

Polyester filament

Low end of July, polyester filament finishing market situation continued to rise. However, the production of PET filament will be affected by the trend of crude oil and long filament production, which will affect the production of polyester fiber, reduce the production cost and reduce the production cost. In the middle of the month, the prices of polyester filament factories have both ups and downs, and some factories have preferential sales promotion, but the effect is not so good. Only FDY has a large volume, and the downstream purchase is on the low side. The market trading atmosphere is general. Near the end of the month, polyester raw materials are warmer and more volatile, polyester filament factories are willing to stand up for prices, and their quotations have been increased, and the preferential range has been narrowed. Downstream enterprises have properly followed up orders while digesting the raw materials in the early stage, and the production and sales of polyester filament have been in large volume, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. Up to now, the average market price of East China polyester filament POY is 5050 yuan / ton, down 10.17% month on month and 39.53% year on year. The highest price is 5350 yuan / ton on July 1 and the lowest price is 4850 yuan / ton on July 20.

The fourth part forecasts and prospects

Jinlianchuang forecasts that the polyester industry chain market in August may maintain a volatile pattern. With the gradual recovery of demand, the international oil price is in the upward stage, and the PTA and glycol markets of polyester raw materials are still likely to rebound upward in the next month, and the cost faces the market support. However, the terminal market is still weak, and the demand of traditional weaving Market is still weak. Therefore, the overall trend of polyester product market in August may continue the finishing trend. The following is the outlook for each product:

PX is not expected to be strong in August. At present, PX enterprises are still suffering from serious losses, so it is unlikely to increase the supply. However, a set of 1 million tons / year PX plant of Weilian chemical is planned to be put into operation. Under the severe international epidemic situation, the demand for terminal polyester is weak, and the business mentality is cautious. Generally speaking, the PX market will be dominated by weakness in the next month, which is easy to fall and difficult to rise.

PTA: jinlianchuang expects PTA Market in August to be mainly volatile, which does not rule out the possibility of a small increase. In August, maintenance plan was issued for some PTA units, and the overall supply pressure was relieved; while the downstream polyester operating rate remained high, and the low price promotion made the on-site inventory digest, but the PTA high start-up and high inventory increased the market repression. At the same time, the poor performance of terminal demand, sluggish domestic sales and poor export also weaken PTA demand. Therefore, in the short term, PTA market may maintain a volatile pattern. However, driven by the strong crude oil and commodity markets, it is not ruled out that there is a small possibility of a strong PTA market.

MEG: the ethylene glycol market is expected to be strong and volatile in August. At present, there are different degrees of profit loss in each process line of ethylene glycol, which leads to the increase of unexpected maintenance of upstream plants, and the willingness to restart the maintenance device is not strong. The start-up load of upstream plants is always kept at a low level. In addition, the market spot price valuation is low, easy to attract long funds into the market. Moreover, with the delivery period approaching, the spot price of ethylene glycol is further closer to the futures price. But at present, the high level of port inventory is difficult to drop, which still suppresses the market price. It is expected that the overall trend of ethylene glycol market in August will be warmer, but it is difficult to pull up sharply.

Pet: jinlianchuang expects polyester pet market to fluctuate in August. Next month, PTA and glycol raw materials or strong shock, cost side support is OK. From the supply side, the polyester PET plant's production reduction plan in August is not much, and there are still new units put into operation, and the operating rate may maintain a high level. It is expected that the supply pressure in the future market will increase. From the perspective of demand, although the fiber grade PET downstream slicing workshop still has a negative expectation in August, the downstream polyester industry will gradually usher in the traditional consumption peak season, and the bottle grade PET downstream is still in the traditional consumption peak season, and the overall demand of polyester pet market may be fair. Generally speaking, the overall fluctuation range of pet market in August may be relatively large, so we should pay close attention to the trend of international crude oil and upstream raw material market.

Polyester fiber: jinlianchuang expects the polyester fiber market in August to develop first and then restrain. PTA and glycol market or price rise next month, cost side support is OK. At the beginning of the month, polyester fiber prices may still be under pressure. However, in August, the overall production reduction of the plant was moderate, and with the continuous production of new units, the supply pressure was increasing. In the early stage, the production of weaving enterprises can not be improved due to the low production order, and it is difficult for the downstream enterprises to improve their production in the low season. Therefore, prices will fall in the middle of the month. Affected by this, the polyester fiber market will develop first and then restrain in August.