The Price Of Liuhuamian Could Move Up Continuously

Since July, the main contract CF2009 of Zheng cotton has been consolidated in 12000-12500 yuan / ton box. Bulls have tried to take advantage of the stock market and weather and other factors to continue to pull up at the Waner pass. However, the industry is still in a slow recovery state. Due to the limited support of cotton yarn, grey cloth and other terminals in the downstream, coupled with the interference of the new crown epidemic and the continuous tension between China and the United States, a total of 12000 yuan / ton of cotton is expected Although the bottom has been tested many times, it has not been established effectively. The whole surface of Zheng cotton is still in the state of "top on top and bottom at bottom". From the perspective of finance, stock and bond market and bulk commodities, zhengmian is easy to rise but difficult to fall; however, in the short term, from the perspective of cotton supply and demand fundamentals, external uncertainty risk accumulation and downstream order situation, cotton futures are not strong enough to rise, so it is difficult to break at 12000 yuan / ton and extremely cold at 12500 yuan / ton.

If the time point is longer, since June, the bottom center of gravity of Zheng Mian has been moving up continuously, from 11400 yuan / ton to 11925 yuan / ton. CF2009 contract has been steadily and steadily upward. It not only has the foundation, but also is rigid and flexible, advancing and retreating freely. Zheng Mian has always been in the channel of upward gravity center. Therefore, it is a high probability event to stand at 12000 yuan / ton and move forward to 12500 yuan / ton and 13000 yuan / ton. According to the author's judgment, the new cotton and the old cotton will be in line with the standard level of 3128b near 13000 in 2020 / 21. Why do I think cotton price will rise in September? It can be summarized as follows:

First, the central bank continued to ease monetary policy, sufficient capital flow, and the financial and commodity futures markets were optimistic. In order to deal with the new epidemic situation, boost the real enterprises, slow down the economic recession, and ensure the employment rate, the global central banks will open the "helicopter money" mode in 2020. Recently, the central bank has set a target of 12.09 trillion yuan in new loans in the first half of 2020;

Second, the production and sales of China's textile and clothing enterprises are in a difficult recovery and climbing stage, which requires time for space. China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in July was 51.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, according to the China Federation of logistics and purchasing and the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics. As of July, PMI of the manufacturing industry has been operating at more than 50% for five consecutive months, especially the index rose to more than 51% in July, indicating that the economy is picking up rapidly; according to the survey data of China Textile Industry Federation, the prosperity index of textile industry will reach 51.0 in the second quarter of 2020, returning to the expansion range. Over the same period, the capacity utilization rates of the textile and chemical fiber industries reached 70.3% and 77.1% respectively, up 3.1% and 2.7% compared with the first quarter. Although the recovery of foreign trade exports is slow, the whole industry is still struggling to recover;

Third, the textile and clothing industry "gold nine silver ten" is coming, gauze production and marketing is expected to start ahead of time. In the first half of 2020, affected by the epidemic situation, employment situation, income decline and other factors, textile and clothing consumption has been in a state of repression and restraint (the savings rate of Chinese residents has increased significantly). However, with the periodic effect of the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic, the economic recovery of European and American countries and the fall of domestic sales orders in the spring and summer of 2021, the "gold, silver and ten" of gauze and clothing can be expected, and cotton will disappear It seems that the increase of fees and the moderate rise of prices are not far away;

The fourth is to pay attention to the weather and epidemic situation changes in Xinjiang cotton area from August to September. According to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Bureau and the autonomous region meteorological station, the high temperature and drought weather in Xinjiang in August continued (35-37 ℃ high temperature appeared in most areas, and the highest temperature in some regions of Tarim Basin, Turpan City, Hami City and other places in southern Xinjiang could reach above 40 ℃), which was not conducive to cotton boll setting, peach making and boll opening, and even caused the buds and bolls to fall off and fruit less The quality of cotton has been affected; however, the current epidemic situation in Xinjiang has led to a sharp decline in lint road transportation and a drop in railway shipment. The inquiry and shipment of cotton in Xinjiang are relatively active in the mainland.