Automobile Production And Sales Maintain Double-Digit Growth In July: New Energy Vehicles Or New Cycle

On August 11, the China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as "CAAC") released monthly auto production and sales data, which showed that in July 2020, automobile production and sales reached 2.201 million and 2.12 million respectively, down 5.3% and 8.2% month on month, and increased by 21.9% and 16.4% year-on-year.

The production and sales of 12.37-million vehicles decreased by 1.23-1.24% and 12.36% respectively compared with the same period of last year.

"In July this year, automobile production and sales continued the warming trend since the second quarter and maintained a good running situation. The overall situation of automobile production and sales is stable. Although the production and sales volume of the month decreased slightly on a month on month basis, the year-on-year growth rate of commercial vehicles is still obvious. " On August 11, Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of the China Automobile Association, said.

Since the beginning of this year, as China has made achievements in the overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the overall recovery of economic operation has continued to be good, especially driven by various consumption promotion policies, residents' outbound consumption has increased in an orderly manner, market vitality has gradually increased, and automobile sales have also been continuously improved.

"From the cumulative situation, the production and sales in the first seven months exceeded 12 million. Compared with the first half of the year, the year-on-year decline in sales from January to July narrowed to 12.7% from the negative growth of 16.9% in the first half of the year, and the rate of decline was still very fast. " Chen Shihua said that the contribution of commercial vehicles to the growth of the overall automobile market is still very obvious under the strong pull of trucks.

According to the data, in July, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 472000 and 447000, respectively, down 10.4% and 16.6% month on month, and increased by 70.3% and 59.4% respectively year on year. From January to July, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 2.831 million and 2.832 million, with a year-on-year increase of 16.4% and 14.3% respectively.

Despite the gradual recovery of automobile production and sales, but faced with many uncertain factors, the second half of the year is still facing greater growth pressure. Therefore, for the whole year's sales volume, CAAC still maintains the forecast of 10% - 20% year-on-year negative growth.

The market share of independent brands hit the bottom and rebounded

"Since April, the market share of China's independent brands has been in a downturn. After experiencing a historical low of 33.5% in June, the market share of China's independent brands has increased slightly in July, but it is still at a low level." Chen Shihua pointed out.

According to the data, in July this year, 585000 passenger cars of Chinese brands were sold, down 0.9% month on month, up 4.5% year on year, accounting for 35.1% of the total sales volume of passenger cars, ending the continuous downward trend since March. From January to July, a total of 3.434 million passenger cars of Chinese brands were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 25%, accounting for 36.0% of the total sales of passenger cars, with a 3.2 percentage point decrease over the same period of last year.

While the market share of Chinese brand passenger cars is declining, the market share of Japanese and German car companies continues to rise, and the market performance is better than the average level of the industry.

"The impact of the epidemic has delayed consumer demand for cars, so the second quarter is good for joint venture brands, and the market share of joint venture brands has gradually increased in the first half of this year. However, with the release of consumers' delayed car purchase demand, the market gradually returned to its original state in July, and the market share of independent brands also gradually recovered. " Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, said in an interview with the reporter that with the overall economic situation in China getting better, the restrained demand of customers who buy independent brands will be released, and the market share of independent brands is in a bottoming up stage, but there is no possibility of explosive growth of self-made brand cars.

At the same time, Xu Haidong believes that independent brands are facing polarization. The top enterprises such as great wall, Hongqi and Chang'an are in a relatively good state of development and occupy the corresponding market share, while the market share lost by the edge independent brands will be shared by the head independent enterprises and joint ventures.

Under the dual effects of the overall scale decline and consumption upgrading trend of the auto market, resources are further concentrated to the leading enterprises.

According to the data, from January to July this year, the top 15 enterprises in China's brand automobile sales volume sold 5.896 million new cars, accounting for 95.6% of the total sales of Chinese brand cars.

Based on the prediction that the promotion of consumption policies implemented by various regions in the first half of the year is coming to an end, and the future promotion of automobile consumption policies may be weakened and the rhythm will slow down. Chen Shihua suggests that automobile enterprises pay close attention to the changes in the domestic market and the introduction and implementation of national and local policies, timely adjust the pace of production and operation, and promote the high-quality development of enterprises.

New energy vehicle or new cycle

It is worth noting that in July this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles achieved the first year-on-year positive growth.

According to the data, in July this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 100000 and 98000 respectively, down 2.4% and 5.5% month on month, and increased by 15.6% and 19.3% respectively on a year-on-year basis. Compared with the same period of last year, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles increased. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 79000 and 78000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.9% and 24.2%.

"Since this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have changed from negative to positive for the first time, which is of great significance." In an interview with reporters, Xu Haidong pointed out that in July this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles ended a 12 month year-on-year decline. At the same time, after one year's adjustment of new energy vehicle manufacturers and new energy vehicle market, new energy vehicles will continue to maintain relatively stable growth in the latter few months of this year. It is estimated that the domestic new energy vehicle market will sell 1.1 million vehicles this year, of which Tesla will account for 100000.

Xu Haidong believes that "since this year, shared cars and group car purchases have decreased significantly, and the consumption of private new energy vehicles is becoming the driving force for the growth of new energy vehicles, which is a very important factor to ensure the development of new energy vehicle market."

At the same time, in July this year, the activities of new energy vehicles to the countryside jointly promoted by the three ministries and commissions will also open up a sinking market and become a new increment of new energy vehicles. Since April, China Automobile Association has gradually included Tesla, Weima, Hezhong, ideal and other new automobile manufacturing enterprises into the statistical scope. Therefore, the data of the same period have also been adjusted accordingly, which has a certain impact on the changes of the data Ring.

In addition, China's new energy vehicle market is also undergoing differentiation. On the one hand, the scale of the medium and high-end new energy vehicle market represented by Tesla, Weilai and ideality continues to expand. On the other hand, the sinking market oriented micro electric vehicle represented by Wuling Hongguang Mini ushers in new development opportunities under the promotion of new energy vehicles going to the countryside.

According to the data of the passenger Federation, the wholesale of A00 class pure electric passenger vehicles accounted for 20% in July, and it is expected that the sales force will be launched next month.

"It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles such as Tesla will have a good effect in the second half of this year, as the sales volume of new energy vehicles will be low in the next half of the year." Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car Association, said on August.

Since this year, Tesla has set a benchmark for the sales of high-end electric vehicles in China's new energy vehicle market. On the premise that traditional multinational automobile enterprises have not yet formed a layout, Tesla also gives domestic automobile enterprises development opportunities in the field of high-end electric vehicles.

It is understood that in July this year, the trend of high-end electric vehicles is obvious. Tesla still keeps the first place in pure electric vehicles with 11000 units, and BYD's overall sales of new energy vehicles have reached 14000, returning to the first place of new energy vehicles. In addition, the new forces of car manufacturing showed a strong performance. The total wholesale volume of new energy vehicles of new force brands was 14000, with a year-on-year increase of 174%, becoming an important force to promote the growth of new energy vehicle market.

For the development trend of new energy vehicles in the future, Cui Dongshu predicts that the growth of new energy vehicles in the first half of the year is mainly driven by the growth of new forces represented by Tesla, and the sales of micro electric vehicles are expected to rise sharply in the second half of the year, thus promoting the sustained double-digit high growth of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year, and further forming a new cycle of high growth of new energy vehicles in the next few years.

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