A Study Of Sino US Relations From The 20-Year Memorabilia Of China'S Foreign Trade

In October of this millennium, Clinton, then president of the United States, signed the bill on permanent normal trade relations with China, making the bill officially become the law of the United States. According to this bill, after China's accession to the WTO, the United States will terminate its annual review of China's "most favored nation treatment" (normal trade relations) in accordance with the relevant provisions of the trade law of 1974, and establish permanent normal trade relations with China.

In the following eight years, China's exports of goods to the United States increased significantly In 2003, 2004 and 2005, the year-on-year increase was more than 30%. Until the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, China's exports of goods to the United States turned to negative growth in 2009, but in 2010, it rebounded sharply by 28.3%, recovering the lost land.

Also in this year, November, Zhu Rongji, then Premier of the State Council of China, proposed the idea of establishing a China ASEAN Free Trade Area It has been positively responded by the leaders of ASEAN countries. In 2020, 20 years later, ASEAN will surpass the EU and become China's largest trading partner.

This year, Chinese were allowed to apply for their passports freely. In the same year, the US trade deficit with China reached an all-time high of US $103.12 billion, accounting for 23.7% of its total deficit.

This year, The highly concerned anti-dumping case of color TV in China has a final result. In fact, as early as 2002, China's share of color TV sets in the U.S. market increased year by year, which caused the defense of American domestic enterprises and well-known European, Japanese and Korean color TV manufacturers that have entered the American market. Finally, the United States raised the big stick of anti-dumping.

On April 13, 2004, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the final findings of the anti-dumping case against China's color TV industry. The four enterprises under separate investigation by the U.S. government obtained separate tax rates. Among them, Changhong's dumping rate was 24.48%, TCL's was 22.36%, Konka's was 11.36%, and Xiahua's was 4.35%; Haier, Hisense and other color TV companies that responded positively but did not accept the separate investigation got an average of 21.49% The dumping tax rate is 78.45% for other non responding enterprises.

China's color TV set suffered a heavy setback at sea.

Since 2001, the proportion of China's total export to GDP has been rising in a straight line, reaching a peak of 35.21% in 2006.

From 2001 to 2006, the trade volume between China and the European Union has increased by 2.5 times, with an average annual growth rate of 25%; the trade volume between China and the United States has increased by 2.3 times, with an average annual growth rate of 24%; the trade volume between China and South Korea has increased by more than 2.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 27%; and the trade volume between China and Japan has increased by 1.4 times, with an average annual growth rate of 16.6%.

For many Chinese people, 2008 is a year destined to be unforgettable. On May 12, Wenchuan, Sichuan Province, an earthquake of magnitude 8 on the Richter scale struck Wenchuan. From August 8 to 24, Beijing held the 29th Olympic Games, presenting an unparalleled opening ceremony to the world. Finally, China ranked first in the gold medal list and medal list.

In September, the economic situation changed dramatically. On September 15, Lehman Brothers, one of the four largest investment banks in the United States, announced its application for bankruptcy. The amount of bankruptcy reached the highest in the United States and even in the world. The global financial crisis broke out. Investment, employment and household consumption in major developed economies have declined sharply.

As China's economy is highly dependent on exports (at that time, the degree of dependence on foreign trade exceeded 60%), the decline of world demand means the risk of economic cooling for China, and many domestic export enterprises are facing great pressure. In order to ease the difficulties of textile enterprises, stabilize exports and ensure employment, the Ministry of Finance and other departments increased the export tax rebate rate of some textiles and clothing from 11% to 13% on August 1, 2008, and increased the export tax rebate rate of labor-intensive goods such as textiles, clothing, toys and other labor-intensive goods and high-tech and high-value-added goods from November 1, 2008.

At this time, the world economy has recovered from the financial crisis, and China's foreign trade has also begun to recover. In this situation, from July 15, 2010, export tax rebates for 406 kinds of commodities, which belong to the steel, nonferrous, chemical, glass and plastic and rubber products industries, have been cancelled.

In 2010, China's exports increased by 31.3% year-on-year, and the growth of imports also reached 38.7%, The annual trade surplus declined for the second consecutive year after reaching a record high in 2008 。

The sovereign debt crisis that broke out from Greece in 2009 spread to Europe in three years. At that time, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain were called PIIGS. Dragged down by Europe, the recovery momentum of the world economy has been frustrated and the growth rate has slowed down significantly. In the government work report in March 2012, it was proposed that the expected target of China's economic growth in this year was 7.5% Reduce the economic growth target for the first time in eight years 。 As a result, the GDP growth of that year was 7.8%, which reached the target, but it was also the lowest level since 1999.

In this year, China's total export volume increased by 7.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 12.4% lower than that of the previous year. In the same year, the Chinese government issued the guiding opinions on strengthening import and promoting the balanced development of foreign trade, We have further improved the import promotion policy.

In 2014, "new normal" became one of the hottest words in China's economy. Its main characteristics are: speed - from high-speed growth to medium - high-speed growth; structure - economic structure is constantly optimized and upgraded; power - from factor driven, investment driven to innovation driven.

This year's GDP growth rate was 7.4%, while the growth rate of import and export slowed down more obviously, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%. From January to April, foreign trade experienced a situation of "double decline" in import, export and export, which was not seen for many years. But on the other hand, Cross border e-commerce, market procurement and other new trade modes are gradually becoming the new growth point of foreign trade development. In 2014, the growth rate of cross-border e-commerce reached more than 30%, and the growth rate of Yiwu market's purchase trade mode export reached 36.8%.

The decline rate of foreign trade in 2016 was narrower than that in 2015. The good thing is that both imports and exports achieved positive growth in the fourth quarter.

Internationally, Britain's referendum on brexit and Trump's victory in the general election have increased the uncertainty of the international economy. At the end of December, the onshore exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar reached 6.9633. This is the first time to face the psychological barrier of "7" after the exchange rate reform on August 11.

Trade friction runs through the whole year. In fact, as early as August 2017, U.S. President trump ordered an investigation into whether China infringed on US intellectual property rights in accordance with the "301 section" of the US trade act.

On January 22, 2018, the United States imposed global safeguard tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines, also known as "the United States first" tariff. Huawei was also investigated after the US Department of Commerce announced on April 16 that it would ban American companies from selling parts, goods, software and technology to ZTE for seven years.

On May 20, at about 2:00 a.m. Beijing time, Xinhua News Agency announced that after two days and two nights of fierce game, a new round of Sino US consultations was concluded, and a joint statement was subsequently issued. However, less than a month after the joint statement was issued, the US side unilaterally tore up the statement. On June 15, the U.S. government released a list of goods subject to tariff increase, which will impose 25% tariff on about US $50 billion of imports from China. Tariff measures will be implemented on about us $34 billion of goods since July 6, 2018. Meanwhile, the US government began to solicit public opinions on the tariff increase of about US $16 billion. On September 24, 2018, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on US $200 billion worth of Chinese exports to the United States. The trump government said that the tariff rate would be increased to 25% from January 1, 2019.

On December 1, during the G20 summit in Argentina, China and the United States reached an agreement to suspend the imposition of new tariffs on each other Trump agreed to postpone the implementation of a plan to increase tariffs on US $200 billion worth of Chinese exports to the United States on January 1.

On the other hand, China International Import Expo, the world's first national Expo with the theme of import, was held in China this year.

On January 15, China and the United States formally signed the first phase of the economic and trade agreement, and the two sides reached an agreement that the United States would fulfill its commitment to abolish tariffs on Chinese products in stages, so as to realize the change of tariff increase from up to down. From September 1, 2019, the tariff rate imposed by the United States on US $120 billion of Chinese goods has been reduced by half, from the original 15% to 7.5%; the United States will suspend indefinitely the plan to take effect in December 2019 for us $160 billion of Chinese goods, involving mobile phones, laptops, toys and clothing; earlier, the 25% tariff imposed by the United States on US $250 billion worth of Chinese goods will be guaranteed It remains unchanged.

However, unexpectedly, the sudden outbreak of new coronal pneumonia nearly closed the world, and international trade suffered a heavy blow. The 64 year old Canton Fair was fully online in June, and "tested" live online At one time, many foreign trade salesmen worked hard to learn the anchor skills.

According to the latest forecast released by the world trade organization, Global trade will decline by 14% this year. The WTO warned that in recent months, Tariff barriers and restrictions on procurement and other issues are becoming more and more serious, which makes the prospect of Global trade worrying. At present, the anti globalization trend is aggravating, and more and more countries are isolated from each other 。

In this case, the "double cycle" development model has become a hot topic in recent years. In fact, since 2008, China's dependence on foreign trade has been decreasing, which is only 31.8% in 2019, which is equivalent to the level at the end of last century.

In terms of foreign trade, the state has also issued a series of policies to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment. Another obvious trend is the support for cross-border e-commerce: since July 1, 10 customs directly under Beijing, Tianjin, Nanjing and Hangzhou have launched a pilot project of "B2B export of cross-border e-commerce". According to customs data, In the first half of the year, the export of customs supervision platform for cross-border merchants rose by 28.7% while the total export volume decreased by 3%.

Some people say that 2020 is "Great changes not seen in a century" It's more like: A thousand sails go ill by the side of a tree.

what about you? When did you enter foreign trade and did you catch up with the golden age?