Musk Presents Battery "Ultimate Weapon": Why Wall Street Doesn'T Buy Tesla'S Account?

The main reason for Tesla's share price's fall is that the technical results were not released as expected. Previously, Tesla has hinted at a number of "blockbusters" in the field of batteries, but the batteries have not been mentioned in recent days, such as batteries with a service life of up to one million miles, dry electrode technology that can greatly increase the energy density of cells, and so on.

Tesla battery day, which has been warmed up for a long time, is finally here.

On September 22, local time, on a vacant lot at a factory in Fremont, California, Tesla CEO Elon Musk During the period of the meeting, many executives and executives were still in the process of communicating with each other in detail.

Tesla has previously expressed its plan to develop its own batteries, and the outside world is curious about the progress of this cross-border project in several acquisitions. But musk has shown rare "restraint" in this matter, keeping the suspense on battery day - even though he has been promoting it since last year.

According to the information disclosed on the 22nd battery day, Tesla's self-developed battery is a "electrodeless ear" battery cell with five times more energy, six times more charging and discharging power and 16% longer driving range. Compared with existing batteries, Tesla's self-developed battery has lower cost, higher energy density and higher upper limit of charging and discharging power, making a breakthrough in the field of batteries to a certain extent.

But investors are not buying into it. After the end of Tesla battery day, the company's share price changed from up to down. As of the end of September 22 local time, Tesla's share price fell 5.6% to 424.23 U.S. dollars per share. After hours, the share price continued to fall, falling 6.81% by the time of publication.

According to analysis, the main reason for Tesla's share price decline is that the release of technical achievements is less than expected. For example, Tesla's battery technology has not greatly improved its battery life by more than one million miles per day.

But for Tesla, it's more important for Tesla to build its own battery at the right cost as soon as possible rather than "revolutionizing" - the former is much more difficult than the outside world thinks, and the latter is obviously not easy. In fact, Tesla's self-developed battery itself has made a breakthrough. It takes time for large-scale production. Musk said the day before that "mass production will not be carried out before 2022".

Less than expected battery debut

Tesla is one of the few vehicle manufacturers that insist on independent battery research (of course, Tesla's positioning is never a car company, but a technology company). In addition to its existing accumulation in the field of tri electric, the outside world pays much attention to Tesla's battery projects.

In fact, Tesla's electrodeless ear battery is not the first time. In November last year, Tesla submitted a new battery patent, and half a year later, the patent was exposed, that is, the electrodeless ear battery released on this battery day.

The electrode lug is the contact point of the battery when charging and discharging. The traditional cylindrical battery extends the positive and negative electrodes to both ends, and the convex or concave part is called the polar ear. The electrode lug can generate a lot of heat energy, and canceling the structure of electrode lug can solve the problem of heat dissipation of battery cell.

Tesla's cell is larger than the current industrialized cell, which is said to be 46 mm in diameter and 80 mm in height (hence the name 46800 battery, and the last "0" represents a cylindrical battery). The battery life is increased by 16% due to its large power consumption.

This has also become a point of criticism for 46800 batteries. According to some analysts, the energy density of the new power cell which "comes out after thousands of calls" has not been significantly improved. "The battery cell currently used in Tesla is 21700. After it becomes 46800, its volume is 5 times larger, so the energy is increased by 5 times. However, after the volume decreases, the corresponding packaging materials are reduced, and the driving range is correspondingly increased."

Although there is no data to support the above analysis, it is reasonable. Musk did not introduce the information on the energy density of 46800 battery. More importantly, the "dry electrode" technology which can improve the energy density, which has been stir fried in the market, has not appeared this time.

In February last year, Tesla invested 218 million US dollars to acquire Maxwell. One of the core technologies mastered by Maxwell is dry battery electrode technology, which can thicken the electrode and significantly increase the energy density of the battery. It is said that the maximum energy density of the single cell of the ternary lithium battery manufactured by this technology can reach 500wh / kg, while the current mainstream ternary lithium battery cell cell energy density is about 300wh / kg.

Another criticism is that the newly released 46800 battery does not mention the "million mile" feature. According to Tesla's previous introduction, through the innovation of the electrochemical system, the battery can run millions of miles, and the battery life can be as long as 10 years or more.

Service life is one of the pain points of batteries. Since 2016, Tesla has been working with Jeff, a pioneer in the field of lithium batteries in the world However, Dr. dahnmas and the outside world have achieved a significant reduction in the capacity of the new single-crystal batteries, which Dr. dahnck and his team have not published in recent years.

However, the technology of increasing cell volume to reduce cost has made breakthroughs, including thermal management problems following the increase of cell volume. The thermal management engineer of a new energy engine plant commented: "compared with the performance improvement, I think that the cancellation of the polar ear design is subversive for the industry change. For battery thermal management, the reduction of heating also means that the design of battery liquid cooling system may not be needed."

Cost reduction, Musk's target

Musk is full of enthusiasm for disruptive technology, but for Tesla at this stage, it is more urgent for Tesla to put into production as soon as possible than to significantly increase the energy density of single battery.

Tesla is determined to develop its own batteries, on the one hand, to avoid being constrained by the capacity of battery suppliers, on the other hand, to reduce costs. Musk said at last year's shareholders' meeting that if he was an external investor, he would pay close attention to Tesla's plans to expand battery production and reduce unit battery costs.

At the shareholders' meeting held at the same time as battery day, musk and Tesla CTO drew Baglino introduced the company's grand blueprint: 100% pure electric transportation and the required battery capacity. According to the calculation, this is a figure close to 10000 GWH. According to the data published by SNE research in South Korea, the world's lithium-ion power battery shipment was only 116.6 GWH in the whole year last year.

If 100% pure electric transportation is still too far away, it is imperative to reduce the cost of batteries. Musk said electric cars are still not affordable cars, and he plans to halve the cost of batteries to make them more widely available.

Tesla's main solution is to develop its own batteries. It is said that the 46800 battery can reduce the cost per kilowatt hour by 14% only by changing its external dimensions. In addition, Tesla will also reduce the cost of the battery by changing the negative material and positive material of the battery and improving the battery factory.

In the aspect of changing anode material, the cost can be reduced by 5% by using new material silicon; in terms of changing cathode material, the cost can be reduced by 12% by reducing cobalt and nickel, improving material preparation process, and obtaining materials locally; in terms of improving battery factory, the cost can be reduced by 18% by optimizing production technology. In addition, Tesla will also drive down the cost of new body design by 7%.

Self developed battery is a strategic measure for Tesla to reduce cost. In response to questions from investors, musk pointed out that it would take three years for the price of Tesla to reach the level of fuel vehicles, which is consistent with the time line of full production of 46800 batteries. However, before full production, musk also said that 46800 batteries will be put into operation one after another, and the annual output of the battery is planned to reach 10gwh by the end of 2021.

At a time when the cost of electric vehicles is significantly reduced, Tesla will bring a $25000 fully autonomous car to the market, which is more "user-friendly" than the model 3, and may be responsible for Tesla's mission to subvert the travel market.

But whether it can come on time is another question. Musk had mentioned the model in an interview with the media in 2018, when he said it would appear in three years' time. Now, the timeline has obviously shifted a little bit.

?