Shenzhen Second Hand Housing Change Situation: Transaction Downturn Under Regulation And Control, Real Estate Speculation Chain Cut Off

Shenzhen, the weather vane of the property market, is undergoing profound changes, mainly in the second-hand housing market.

After the "July 15" new deal, the transaction of second-hand housing in Shenzhen fell into a downturn, and the volume of online signing fell to the freezing point in August and September. In the near future, the policy has to control the second-hand housing market, aggravating the decline of the second-hand market.

Previously, due to the price limit of new houses in Shenzhen, and the second-hand housing prices formed an inverted link, which brought room for speculation. Thanks to the cancellation of the luxury house tax at the end of last year, many community owners jointly speculated on the price rise of the control panel to obtain more profits. In the first half of this year, Shenzhen staged a wave of magic rising market.

But now, with the upgrading of purchase restriction and the linkage regulation of supervision and control of second-hand housing, the chain of real estate speculation in Shenzhen has been cut off. The price transmission from new houses to second-hand houses is ineffective, and the circulation of second-hand houses is getting worse, and the atmosphere of market speculation is cooling down.

Second hand housing market frozen

After the "7.15" new deal, the most intuitive performance of Shenzhen property market is the "cliff" decline in the turnover of second-hand housing.

According to the online sign trend chart released by the China Association of Shenzhen real estate, one week after the new deal, the number of second-hand houses online signed in a single day was only 359, and the lowest was 55. Compared with the week before the new deal, the number of online signings decreased by 79.8% on average, and the number of online signings also suffered a "low back".

8. In September, the number of online signatures for second-hand housing continued to cool down. Last week (9.14-9.20), the number of second-hand housing online signatures was 1467, falling to the lowest level since the new deal. Compared with the first-hand room often "Japanese disc", second-hand housing has entered the state of quick freezing.

Shenzhen Housing Association believes that this is mainly because of the rising cost of some housing resources and the increase of new housing supply. After the new deal, the tax cost of buying second-hand housing increased, and the value-added tax on luxury house tax was restarted and the value-added tax on transfer was changed from two-year exemption to five-year exemption, which made some people unavoidably worry that they could not buy a house after selling their houses or could not sell them at a "good price" in less than five years. As a result, the number of new houses newly released decreased significantly. In addition, the supply of new houses was sufficient, and the turnover of second-hand houses dropped sharply.

In the past, the areas with a larger rise, such as Nanshan and Bao'an, were particularly depressed. According to the data of China Association for housing and housing in Shenzhen, the proportion of online signatures in Longgang and Luohu increased continuously in August, reaching 29% and 17% respectively, accounting for nearly half of the city's second-hand housing. In sharp contrast, the proportion of online signings in the western regions represented by Nanshan and Bao'an declined significantly, accounting for 14% and 16% respectively.

On September 17, Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of justice solicited public opinions on the "Shenzhen real estate market supervision measures (Revised Draft)" to clearly improve the real estate market price supervision mechanism and establish a price guidance system for the stock of commercial housing.

The establishment of second-hand housing price guidance mechanism is to change the previous price inversion phenomenon in Shenzhen and reduce the speculation space of second-hand housing price.

According to a number of intermediaries, the second-hand housing control mechanism can curb the phenomenon of second-hand house price overheating to a certain extent. But in the current market, there are still many owners still take different ways to avoid. For example, suspend the sale of high price housing or reduce the number of hanging plate, which in disguise becomes the second-hand housing "Wu Pan Xi sell.".

With the sale of second-hand houses, buyers and sellers will continue to be depressed. However, with the low prices of second-hand houses, it will not be appropriate to exclude them.

Fried tenants disappear?

Shenzhen's second-hand housing price guidance mechanism has been rumored for a long time, because Shenzhen has become the most concentrated city of speculators in recent years.

In the past few years, especially in the first half of this year, Shenzhen's real estate market is the only key city with long-term high housing prices and no adjustment. The average price of second-hand houses in July was as high as 70000 square meters. Among them, it is easy to settle down in Shenzhen, the restrictions on purchase are relaxed, the supply is small and the relationship between supply and demand is unbalanced.

Real estate speculators saw this and joined the market. The real demand overlapped the real demand. From the new house to the second-hand house, the real speculators in Shenzhen have built a mature real estate chain.

They buy new houses by "playing new", and at the same time, they raise the prices of second-hand houses around them, and enlarge the arbitrage space. On November 11, last year, Shenzhen's luxury house tax was cancelled, and the tax and fee dropped sharply, which directly ignited the market sentiment. In that month, the second-hand houses sold more than 8000 sets, with an average price of more than 60000 yuan / m2, which made Shenzhen the most expensive city in China. And buyers are also worried about the follow-up prices continue to rise, and choose to actively enter the market to buy a house. The enthusiasm to pursue the rise was further catalyzed.

From the end of last year to March this year, owners of second-hand houses in many districts of Shenzhen began to control their own house prices independently. The owners of Hengyu Penang city in Nanshan started the "price control" and took the lead in raising the second phase of the listing price to nearly 200000 yuan / m2 or even 270000 yuan / m2.

After that, the owners of Longhua and Bihai began to plan for the first ten districts. The owner of fenghuangli garden sent a post, asking the neighbors to take 55000 yuan / square meter as the lowest listing price.

According to the feedback from leading enterprises in the industry, there are indeed some owners (or even joint) in the whole city who have raised the price of housing supply substantially, so as to cash in high position through operating mortgage loan (the interest rate of operating loan is lower than the interest rate of housing loan) by means of "high evaluation and high loan".

Subsequently, fenghuangli community was interviewed by Shenzhen Bureau of housing and urban rural development, and Hengyu Bincheng was named by the Bureau. In December of last year, Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development suspended the online signing procedures for second-hand houses in some communities where collective speculation on housing prices was malicious.

Since this year, there are still a lot of residential owners to significantly increase the listing price, speculation in the residential housing prices. Some second-hand houses such as Tata apartment in Bao'an District, hongrongyuan one party center, jinhuihe capital of Longhua District and Dandi of Xinghe district are listed at unreasonably high prices. On May 22, Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development, together with Baoan District Bureau of housing and urban rural development of Bao'an District, carried out on-site inspection on the real estate agencies around Tata apartment and hongrongyuan one party center. Some houses with listing prices significantly higher than the recent real transaction prices were removed from the shelves.

Speculation style prevailed, the whole country paid attention to it, and Shenzhen finally took action. Since July 15, Shenzhen has launched a series of regulation and control. In September, it launched a marriage information inquiry mechanism to plug the loophole of "false divorce" real estate speculation, and then launched a second-hand housing price guidance mechanism.

In the view of a large developer in Shenzhen, the regulation and control orientation of Shenzhen's property market has changed significantly, from previous encouragement to inhibition. With the upgrading of purchase restriction and the increase of new housing supply, the market is regulated from both sides of supply and demand, and the demand for second-hand housing is diverted by the large supply of new houses. At the same time, the purchase cost of second-hand housing, such as taxes and fees, is increasing, which reduces the attractiveness of buyers, resulting in poor liquidity, which greatly impacts the "confidence" of the secondary housing market. The second-hand house prices are significantly reduced, and the regulatory policies are further effective.

With the passage of time, under the joint control of purchase restriction and supervision and control of second-hand houses, the conduction effect from new houses to second-hand houses has been broken, greatly weakening the circulation of second-hand houses in Shenzhen, and the real estate speculation chain has almost broken. A fried tenant told reporters that their circle has recently moved to Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan and other places to see houses.

Although Shenzhen people are still keen on "building new houses", if they can't sell them in the second-hand market or can't sell them at a "good price" in the future, they may face a long-term situation in which there is a price but no market. Even under the strict control of the government, the second-hand housing will decline, so the driving force for new building will be weakened accordingly.

In the long run, the aforementioned developers believe that Shenzhen will learn from Beijing, Changsha and other places to implement the housing and housing speculation policy; however, in the view of a senior securities trader, if Shenzhen wants to completely cut off the root of real estate speculation, it still needs to link up with surrounding areas to expand land supply.

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