Hu Biliang Of Beijing Normal University: Explaining The Belt And Road Initiative Should Answer Three Questions From The Perspective Of Economy

The second belt and Road International Cooperation Summit Forum will be held in Beijing from April 25 to 27. 126 countries and 29 international organizations have signed the belt and road cooperation agreement with China. Nearly 40 foreign leaders and representatives from more than 150 countries and regions will attend the forum. Since the belt and road initiative was proposed for six years, it has been more and more recognized by the international community. However, some scholars believe that the concept of the belt and road initiative is relatively broad and needs to be better explained to other countries.

Recently, Hu Biliang, President of the belt and Road Research Institute of Beijing Normal University, said in an exclusive interview with the 21st century economic reporter that China can better interpret the belt and road from an "economic perspective". Under the framework of the belt and road initiative, a large number of infrastructure investment and construction can effectively stimulate investment, consumption, import and export, stimulate global economic growth, promote international economic cooperation, and improve global economic governance; the belt and road initiative can also integrate countries not involved in the "global industrial chain" through international industrial cooperation, and the global expansion of industrial chain is beneficial to all countries.

Hu Biliang, Dean of "one belt and one road" Research Institute of Beijing Normal University

Cooperation should further embody "multilateral"

21st century: the belt and road initiative has entered its sixth year. In your opinion, what are the achievements and shortcomings? What can be improved and improved?

Hu Biliang: on the achievements of the belt and road initiative, Yang Jiechi, director of the office of the Central Foreign Affairs Working Committee, talked about four aspects a few days ago: the continuous development of development planning and policy docking, the continuous strengthening of global connectivity, the continuous improvement of international cooperation platform, and the promotion of economic development and people's livelihood improvement of countries along the belt and road. In addition, I think that the institutional framework of the belt and road initiative has been basically constructed and relatively clear in the past five years. I summed it up as "12345": "one body" means building a community with a shared future for mankind, which is the ultimate goal of international cooperation on the belt and road initiative; "two natures" means openness and inclusiveness, which are its main characteristics; "three Communist Parties" means consultation, Co Construction and sharing, which are the basic principles; "four mutual" means peaceful cooperation, openness and inclusiveness, mutual learning and mutual benefit, This is the basic spirit; the "five links" refer to policy communication, facilities connection, trade unimpeded, capital financing and people to people communication, which are the main contents. Secondly, a large number of construction projects have been implemented, and some projects have achieved early harvest. Third, the security of the belt and road initiative has been greatly improved, including financial security, security and popular support.

As for the deficiencies, in the past five years, the belt and road initiative has carried out more bilateral cooperation, which shows obvious "bilateralness" both at the project level and in the aspect of people to people communication, but not enough in multilateral cooperation. In fact, multilateral participation in a project, such as Saudi Arabia's participation in the construction of the "China Pakistan Economic Corridor", can not only reduce our risks, but also benefit more countries, so that they can more actively support the belt and road initiative. Therefore, the future "belt and road" international cooperation platform should further reflect the multilateral and pluralistic nature, and encourage multi-party participation.

Secondly, in terms of project selection, the belt and road initiative focuses more on the "big projects" of the government. It seems that little attention has been paid to the small projects closely related to the interests of the people. In fact, large-scale projects have a long cycle and are far away from the people's lives, so it is difficult to obtain the support of local people in a short time. Some small and medium-sized projects that have an important impact on people's daily life, such as irrigation projects, drinking water projects, small and medium-sized power stations, may be effective in three months, but have a better positive effect on Establishing China's image. Therefore, MNCs should be encouraged to participate in diversified projects in the future.

Third, some enterprises have "non-compliance" and "illegal" problems in their operation, and some enterprises do not attach importance to environmental protection and social responsibility. In this regard, there should be an "overall arrangement" to regulate the behavior of "going out" enterprises.

Fourth, the construction of the belt and road initiative has been promoted rapidly in some regions in the past few years. Some enterprises may not conduct in-depth and detailed research before investment, which will bring some pressure on risk management in the future. In the future, the speed of development should be adjusted. Enterprises should not be too anxious, otherwise it will cause many "sequelae".

Three issues on the belt and road initiative

21st century: there is a view that the concept of "the belt and road" is relatively broad. How do you think China should better explain the belt and road to the outside world?

Hu Biliang: in the past, most of the international economic cooperation platforms were formed based on the natural geographical distribution, with strong geographical characteristics. For example, what "economic community" should be built by neighboring countries? Its geographical boundary is very clear, and it is really easy to identify and do research. However, such "closeness" also leads to the "fragmentation" of the whole world. The belt and road initiative is an open and inclusive platform for international economic cooperation and a new mode of international economic cooperation. Its significance is to jointly promote the construction of an open global economic system through this international economic cooperation platform. "Interconnection" can make the factors of production flow freely in the global scope, thus improving the efficiency. At present, the belt and road initiative is only an initiative, which is still at the macro level. However, a set of clear rules and standards may be further formed in the next stage.

In my opinion, China's interpretation of "the belt and road" to the outside world needs to clarify the following three aspects from the "economic perspective".

First question: why should we carry out the "belt and road" international cooperation? From the perspective of China's own development, the first is the need of trade development. At present, China's oil imports account for about 70% of the total demand, natural gas imports account for about 35% of the total consumption, as well as iron ore, soybeans and other imports are also very large. Therefore, we need to import oil and gas from Russia and Central Asian countries, so we must build gas and oil pipelines. These projects naturally become important projects in the belt and road initiative. Such trade development is, of course, what China needs in the first place, which is conducive to ensuring that China's demand for some products can be met; at the same time, it is also necessary for other countries, because it is also conducive to promoting the export of other countries to China, with complementary advantages and win-win results. The second is the need for investment. Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China has accumulated considerable capital in different areas. Foreign exchange reserves have exceeded 3 trillion US dollars. State owned enterprises have also accumulated some capital, and private entrepreneurs have accumulated some wealth. However, China's shortage economy in the past has undergone transformation, and most products are no longer in short supply. However, at the same time, many developing countries need a large amount of capital investment, which is called Chinese capital Therefore, China's "strong investment" has become the general trend. The third is the need of regional development. Most of the underdeveloped areas in China are in the border areas. The "belt and road" initiative helps to promote the development of more than ten border areas. The "belt and road" has completely changed the geographical concept. The five northwest provinces of China can become the center of Eurasia, the southwest minority areas can become the middle of the North-South Avenue, and the three northeast provinces will become the center of Northeast Asia.

From the international perspective, first of all, it can promote global economic growth. A large number of infrastructure construction can drive the growth of investment in fixed assets, provide more employment opportunities, increase people's income and drive consumption. After strengthening connectivity, trade facilitation can also be promoted. Secondly, it can promote international economic cooperation. In the past, economic cooperation was regional, while the belt and road initiative is global oriented, providing new opportunities for economic cooperation for many countries. Third, improve global economic governance. In the past, the global economic governance system was basically dominated by a small number of countries, and it is difficult for developing countries to benefit from it. The belt and road initiative will unite developing countries to make global public goods available to more people.

The second question: what does the belt and road initiative do? The first is to support the interconnection of global infrastructure; the second is to integrate the global industrial chain, including rebuilding the industrial chain. In the past, some countries did not join the industrial chain. Through the construction of industrial parks and international production capacity cooperation, China has extended the industrial system to these countries and integrated them into the international industrial chain system. In the past, only Europe and the United States, Japan, China and several other big countries have taken over the middle and low-end industrial chains in the world. However, through the belt and road initiative, China and some ASEAN countries occupy the middle end of the industrial chain. Through close cooperation with China, South Korea and central and Eastern European countries, some African and Latin American countries can also participate in the middle and low-end industrial chain The low-end of the global industrial chain has made a difference. In the past, China has also come through this way. Europe, the United States and Japan continue to occupy the high-end position of the global industrial chain. Thus, the content of the new global industrial chain system will be fuller, and each country can find its most suitable position from it, which is beneficial to the long-term development of each country.

The third question: how to implement the belt and road initiative? The basic concept of "the belt and road initiative" is "consultation, co construction and sharing", voluntary cooperation, mutual benefit and win-win results. China does not force export its own development model. The "belt and road" cooperation is based on the market, the main body is enterprises, and the government only plays a guiding role.

Promote China's industrial upgrading

21st century: what are the characteristics of the new globalization led by the belt and road initiative? How does "one belt and one road" help China's economy?

Hu Biliang: comparatively speaking, the biggest feature of globalization led by the belt and road initiative is "openness and inclusiveness". Because globalization in the past was on the surface "globalization", in essence, it was unfair for a small number of countries to control the world with capital. Developing countries lacked the right to speak. The belt and road initiative can enable more countries and more people to enjoy the public goods provided by global governance. The opportunities created by the "globalization" in the past were very uneven, leading to the widening gap between the rich and the poor. However, the globalization led by the "belt and road" is "balanced and inclusive", which benefits more regions and people and reduces the development gap.

In the process of enriching the global value chain system through the belt and road initiative, China has made great contributions. As China needs to give more medium and low-end industries and markets to other developing countries, it must promote its industrial upgrading and gradually develop to the high-end value chain. Is Japan competing with Europe? Not exactly. Because with the development of the times and the development of society, the global demand for upstream products is increasing rapidly, which provides great new opportunities for industrial upgrading in China and other countries. At the same time, China's industrial upgrading can also stimulate the overall demand, drive more developing countries to achieve rapid development, and even achieve leapfrog development.

21st century: according to the IMF report, the global economic growth is facing downward risks. What challenges will the "belt and road" construction face?

Hu Biliang: the decline of global economic growth, on the one hand, may bring financial pressure to the "belt and road" initiative, affect investment enthusiasm and slow down the growth of investment; on the other hand, the world economic development is unbalanced, and there are big differences in capital supply and demand among different regions. At present, China's capital is relatively sufficient, and there are still many opportunities for overseas investment, so there are still incentives to stimulate investment. At the same time, investment can also drive economic growth and smooth the economic cycle. Therefore, generally speaking, the current downward trend of global growth will not have a major adverse impact on the construction of the "belt and road".

The 21st century: in Latin America and Eastern Europe, the practice of "Neo liberalism" is not ideal. Developing countries along the belt and road need new economic development theories as the basis for policy-making. What development theories and experiences do China have to share?

Hu Biliang: there are some problems in the past economic development theory. First of all, due to the different conditions and environments of social and economic development, especially the rapid development of science and technology in recent years, the economic development theory produced in that era may not be able to guide today. Secondly, the countries summarizing the development theories in the past are one-sided, only a few developed countries are considered, and the actual situation of many developing countries is not taken into account. Third, in the past, there was a relatively single society. The thinking mode of some big countries was "I have done well and everyone should follow suit". Today, it is a pluralistic society with different development modes coexisting. In the past, it was centralism (Eurocentrism), and today it is pluralism.

As a big developing country with a long history, China has its own characteristics, such as the system characteristics of the state, the development characteristics of the community, the personality characteristics of the Chinese people, and so on. Although the founders of big theory have rich international experience, most people don't know China well enough, and the theory is not designed for China. All roads lead to Rome. With the successful experience of China's "reform and opening up", many theories should be improved and even revised.

In terms of "the belt and road", the "one belt and one road" relationship, the "one belt and one road" relationship, the "one belt and one road" relationship, the "one belt and one road" relationship, the "one belt and one road" relationship, the "one belt and one city" relationship, the "one belt and one road" relationship, the "one belt and one road" relationship, the "one belt and one road" relationship, the "one belt and one road" relationship, the "one belt and one road" relationship, the "one belt and one road" relationship“ Poverty alleviation and economic growth. For example, the relationship between the government and the market can not be absolute. Some countries rely on the government very much, while others like "small government and big market". We should not blindly believe in "market fundamentalism". Therefore, the theory of economic development must be innovated. Every country should develop according to its own actual situation. Now it seems that development theory and policy are both science and art, and there is no fixed rule that can be applied universally.

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