Polyester Staple Fiber Is Coming Into The Market Soon, Textile Industry Will Add Vitality

As the market of polyester staple fiber futures is getting closer, the market's attention to polyester staple fiber is also gradually increasing. If the polyester staple fiber is listed, the textile industry will involve five varieties on the market. According to the listing time, the ranking will be cotton, PTA, cotton yarn, MEG and polyester staple fiber. The first four products are listed as follows.

Textile industry related to listed varieties

Cotton is a kind of fiber with a long history. As early as 3000 years ago, cotton yarn was used to weave cloth. Compared with natural fiber, the history of chemical fiber is relatively short, and the synthetic fiber of chemical fiber is only developed half a century after the industrial production of cellulose fiber. Although synthetic fiber started late, it has developed rapidly. During the period of 1997-2018, the average annual compound growth rate of global demand for synthetic fiber can reach 4.85%, and the main fiber driving the rapid development of synthetic fiber is polyester.

At this stage, polyester staple fiber is coming into the market, and the market is paying more and more attention to polyester staple fiber. Because it is in the cotton textile industry with another futures cotton variety, the market's correlation and arbitrage analysis are also increased.

Application of cotton, polyester and viscose in cotton spinning

Cotton, polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber are the main raw materials in the field of cotton spinning. With the long-term development, the proportion of cotton used in the field of cotton spinning is also gradually evolving. As an agricultural product, cotton is limited by natural factors and land area. Under the background of rapid development of the downstream cotton spinning field, the supply of cotton is far from meeting the demand of downstream days As a result, the proportion of global cotton consumption in the field of cotton spinning decreased from 66% in 2004 to 48% in 2019, while the rapid development of polyester staple fiber quickly occupied a large number of cotton textile market, and its consumption proportion increased from 28% in 2004 to 41% in 2019. And in terms of the demand for cotton and polyester staple fiber in China's cotton spinning field, the demand for cotton has declined from 53% in 2010 to 42% at present, while the demand for polyester staple fiber has jumped to 37%.

Therefore, cotton, polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber are in one of the three major cotton spinning raw materials. Under the common downstream situation, the three have strong competition. If the cotton textile industry develops rapidly, the demand for chemical fiber will continue to increase. However, if the downstream share is relatively fixed or even shrinks, the three major cotton spinning raw materials are likely to be in a state of ebb and flow.

Price trend of cotton, polyester and viscose in cotton spinning field

Therefore, there is a common downstream relationship, the price trend of the three major cotton textile raw materials is relatively unified. In terms of the price trend of cotton and polyester staple fiber, the price of polyester staple fiber rose due to the cotton speculation weather and a series of factors in 2010, and then the speculation factors gradually broke down, and cotton and polyester staple fiber turned to decline. Both of them experienced a decline for five years, then both rebounded after reaching the bottom in January 2016, and then both in March 2020 both set a new low at the end of January 2016.

Moreover, since 2015, the price difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber is basically in the range of 6000-7000 yuan / ton. Even if it is not within this price difference, the price of polyester staple fiber and cotton will repair each other.

Viscose staple fiber is the third place of cotton spinning raw materials. At present, the two major raw materials are listed and traded. People in the viscose staple fiber industry have also begun to have expectations for the listing of viscose staple fiber. As early as Chapter 24 of the game theory of viscose staple fiber market published by Ji Liuyan, the feasibility study on the listing of viscose staple fiber futures was mentioned, and the details and significance of viscose staple fiber listing were mentioned in the article. In addition, we can also consider the mutual substitution of cotton, polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber in the downstream actual production and use, and the arbitrage relationship generated by strong correlation with pulp price.