Domestic Cotton Prices Continue To Rise

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According to statistics from the business agency, as of September 22, the average price of domestic lint spot market was 12866 yuan / ton, which was 230 yuan / ton higher than that on September 10, or 1.81%, and 1.35% lower than that of last year. In August, cotton was blown to a high point by the hurricane, but the US dollar rebounded strongly. In early September, the sharp drop of US stocks caused the price of cotton in ice period to fall sharply. In the middle of September, the hurricane landed in the United States again, which triggered a big rise in cotton, and "Sally" stirred the heart of the market.

According to the sampling survey conducted by relevant institutions, as of the beginning of September, the average cotton inventory days of enterprises were about 36.85 days, a decrease of 0.09 days on a month on month basis, and an increase of 9.33 days on a year-on-year basis. It is estimated that the National Cotton Industrial inventory is about 708200 tons, with a month on month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 17.6%. In the face of the rising cotton price, the willingness of textile enterprises to purchase cotton has declined, and the wait-and-see situation is getting stronger.

It can be seen from the cotton futures chart that the trend of spot and main contract is basically the same. As of September 22, the resistance level of the main contract of Zheng cotton was about 13100 yuan / ton. The favorable support of the hurricane to the cotton market was limited, and the harvest of new cotton was imminent. Under the ban on Xinjiang cotton by the United States and the long-term overweight such as the sharp fall of American stocks, cotton prices began to fall back, falling above 12500 yuan / ton. The track and scale of Hurricane "Sally" has become the focus of market attention. Meanwhile, the rise and fall of American stocks play a role as a weathervane for cotton market. The power of nature and capital can not be ignored.

As of September 22, 32S ring spinning cotton yarn in Shandong was reported at 19650 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton or 0.51% over September 10, and down 10.36% month on month. In the face of the continuous rise in cotton prices, cotton mills finally straighten up once, but holding prices is still the strategy of many enterprises. Under the current trade background, export orders are sharply reduced and domestic digestion is limited. Yarn enterprises have to face the market competition pressure of imported cotton yarn, and the price reduction keynote will always be implemented in the first half of 2020. Stepping into the traditional peak season, exports have recovered.

In July 2020, China imported 172700 tons of cotton yarn, a month on month increase of 17.69%, a year-on-year increase of 14.84%; export of 23900 tons of cotton yarn, a month on month increase of 38.86%, a year-on-year decrease of 15.32%; in July 2020, China's cotton imports of 16 million meters, a month on month increase of 5.29%, a year-on-year decrease of 34.42%; export of cotton yarn of 654 million meters, a month on month increase of 17.70%.

Business agency analysts believe that under the background of serious economic consumption decline, the supply and demand side is difficult to reverse in the short term. The market needs an opportunity and a reason to boost the cotton market. At this time, "Sally" appeared and was talked about from time to time. Although she was demoted at this time, it could still boost cotton prices. However, the hurricane is far less severe than the financial storm. The US stock market fell sharply, and the hurricane came in vain. Yarn enterprises are waiting for new cotton to come into the market, and their willingness to purchase is greatly reduced. Lint spot price keeps rising slightly. The order support is limited, and the short-term resistance level is 13000 yuan / ton.