Investigation On Price Reduction Trend Of Famous Liquor

With the national day and Mid Autumn Day approaching, the big drama of new product promotion and price increase in liquor industry has basically ended, and a wave of famous liquor price reduction is coming.

One is the price that consumers can't see, such as the price increase between suppliers and dealers, that is, the transfer price between distributors. According to public information, the original box price of new Feitian Maotai liquor dropped all the way from 2860 yuan on September 18 to 2720 yuan on September 27, and the bulk bottle price of new Feitian Maotai liquor dropped from 2550 yuan on September 18 to 2430 yuan on September 27.

Second, the price that consumers can see with their own eyes. In recent days, the 21st century economic reporter has seen from Chongqing new century supermarket that Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Langjiu and other major products of famous liquor enterprises, including old Feitian Maotai, have made special or preferential prices one after another, and some liquor products have reduced their prices by as much as 80%.

Is this the short-term cooling after the price increase of liquor or the beginning of long-term adjustment of the industry?

On September 29, Xiao Zhuqing, a well-known liquor marketing expert and a long-term moderate trader in liquor industry, accepted the 21st century economic report reporter's interview that the above-mentioned price reduction was due to the intensive and large-scale commercial supermarkets conducted by Guizhou Maotai before the Mid Autumn Festival, which interfered with the psychological expectations of speculators. However, judging from the terminal market price of Feitian Maotai has gone up to 3000 yuan, there is no fundamental change in the phenomenon of oversupply. The decline of adjustment price is short-term, and the market price of Maotai is expected to reach a new high before the Spring Festival.

Second, famous wine manufacturers through price increases, have allowed dealers to purchase in advance to lock in profits. In his opinion, Shangchao's holiday promotion and price reduction are more impulse actions taken by dealers to digest inventory. "Once the National Day has passed, most of them will return to their original terminal prices." He said.

However, some Maotai dealers did not dare to judge the price trend of Maotai liquor in an interview. In his opinion, a bottle of Maotai liquor often costs tens of thousands of yuan for catering, which runs counter to the warning from the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection on the resurgence of unhealthy tendencies caused by the rise in liquor prices and the advocacy of strict economy. "We are waiting to see if there will be any substantive binding policy documents coming out next, which is not good for high-end liquor after all." He said.

The first batch price of Maotai liquor continued to decline

On September 22, the front page of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection published a reporter's signed article "vigilance against the resurgence of unhealthy tendencies caused by the rise of high-end liquor prices" on the homepage of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. The article deals with the market price of Feitian Maotai. Although the ex factory price of 500ml 53 degree Feitian Maotai has not changed, compared with the approved price of 2700 yuan for Feitian Maotai in the Mid Autumn Festival and national day last year, it has jumped to more than 2800 yuan before the Mid Autumn Festival, and the retail price is generally as high as 3000 yuan.

According to the data provided by Haitong Securities to the 21st century economic reporter, on September 19, the first batch price of new Feitian Maotai liquor dropped by 5 yuan from 2860 yuan on September 18, while the first batch price of new Feitian bulk bottles dropped by 15 yuan from 2550 yuan on September 18. As of September 21, the first batch price of new Feitian original box has dropped to 2840 yuan, and the first batch price of bulk bottles has dropped to 2510 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan and 20 yuan compared with the previous day.

On September 24, 21st century economic reporter learned in Chongqing international trade convenience store that the new Feitian can be shipped at 2600 yuan per bottle and 2900 yuan for the whole piece. On September 27, the reporter learned from many channels that the first batch price of the original box of new Feitian Maotai had been reduced to 2720 yuan, and the price of loose bottles was 2430 yuan. Within 10 days, the price of a batch of new Feitian Maotai liquor dropped by 140 yuan, while that of bulk bottles dropped by 120 yuan.

On September 28, the official micro Henan Maofen club, which had not announced the market price of Maotai liquor for several days, only sent a few words: "the market has plummeted, and the goods are suspended.".

It is worth mentioning that just the day after the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection issued the document, Wumei supermarket fired the first shot of Feitian Maotai during the national day. From September 23 to September 27, 7500 bottles of Maotai liquor worth 1499 yuan were purchased according to the qualification. From September 25 to 28, four more Maotai direct marketing channels announced the launch of a total of 90000 bottles of 1499 yuan / bottle of Feitian Maotai, namely Henan Dazhang (20000 bottles), Xiamen Xiashang (20000 bottles), Metro (30000 bottles) and Xinhua du (20000 bottles).

From the current public information, tmall supermarket (30000 bottles), Wumart (85000 bottles), Guizhou Hualian (20000 bottles), China Resources Wanjia (30000 bottles), Henan liquor convenience (30000 bottles) and jiuxian.com (30000 bottles) have put in more than 300000 bottles of cheap Feitian Maotai liquor during the mid autumn National day. Up to now, Maotai Group has cooperated with 67 direct selling channels and has initially completed the channel layout.

In 2019, when the marketing system reform of Maotai in Guizhou Province is "breaking the ice", launching the national and local supermarket channels is regarded as the establishment of flat channels and reasonable price reduction.

It's just a short-term cooling down

However, it is different from that before the Mid Autumn Festival last year, Wumart group concentrated on large-scale production, and China Resources Wanjia, tmall supermarket, Suning e-buy, etc. joined the large-scale team, causing a decline in the wholesale price of Feitian Maotai liquor. This price fluctuation started long before the Mid Autumn Festival.

"The main reason is the change of psychological expectation caused by the increase of market investment. Besides cost, the main factor affecting price is the relationship between supply and demand. The increase of direct supply of Maotai by supermarkets and e-commerce has an impact on the price adjustment among liquor dealers. What the manufacturers want to crack down on are speculators like scalpers. " Xiao Zhuqing said.

But he believes that before the double festival, the supply and demand relationship of Feitian Maotai is still tense, and the market retail price is about 3000 yuan. Maotai liquor is expected to break through the price of 3500 yuan before the Spring Festival.

At the same time, different years of Feitian Maotai liquor is also on sale?

Maotai liquor dealers from Jiangsu told the 21st century economic report that as long as the guiding price of 1499 yuan is not loose, investors, dealers and consumers have psychological expectations of price increase. Therefore, the retail price of 3000 yuan of xinfeitian is supported. From the bottle opening rate, the new Feitian is OK. After all, the cost of a meal is more than 3000 yuan for a meal. This is contrary to the strict economy demanded by the central government.

In Xiao Zhuqing's opinion, the relevant articles on the website of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection serve as reminders to Party members, cadres and civil servants, and do not contradict consumption stimulating economic development. Among the high-end liquor brands, Maotai liquor has entered the ranks of luxury brands, and Shunzhi liquor has entered the ranks of luxury brands. Therefore, its channel price adjustment is only a short-term cooling down.

However, for regional liquor enterprises, Xiao Zhuqing believes that the liquor market is concentrated on strong brands, and the pressure of regional brands can only be increased.

"More than the promotion of Spring Festival"

In addition to Feitian Maotai Liquor's first batch price continued to decline, the market terminal price of famous liquor also went down in the past two days.

On September 28, 21st century economic reporter saw in China Resources Wanjia supermarket in Nanping, Chongqing, that liquor counters were widely promoted. Since Feitian Maotai, all famous liquors were labeled with "special price". The original price of 500ml Wuliangye of the eighth generation was 1399 yuan, and the special price was 1099 yuan. It is worth mentioning that Wuliangye's special price tag was put after the positive price tag. Jiannanchun crystal bottle 52 degrees 500ml, original price 489 yuan, special price 399 yuan. The price is 1198 yuan and the special price is 1019 yuan. The number of Luzhou special liquor decreased from RMB 299 to RMB 328.

Also hit on the special price is the old Maotai liquor. The 500 ml package of 53 degree Feitian Maotai decreased from 3399 yuan to 3199 yuan in 2017, and 300 yuan in 2018.

Compared with the main products of famous liquor enterprises, the decline of other liquor enterprises' products is amazing. The price of a Maotai mellow product developed by Maotai Group Technology Development Co., Ltd. has been directly reduced from more than 600 yuan to 90 yuan. The price of mianrou Royal Porcelain in Quanxing Liquor Co., Ltd. is 598 yuan, and the special price is 99 yuan. Sales staff urged reporters to buy: "more than the promotion of the Spring Festival, then also to 110 yuan."

As early as September 24, in Chongqing Jiefangbei new century supermarket, 500 ml qinghualang (20) was also given a discount from 1189 yuan to 1019 yuan, and the eighth generation Wuliangye was given a 200 yuan discount from 1389 yuan. The owner of Guomao convenience store told reporters that her Luzhou Laojiao Tequ was more than 10 yuan cheaper than the supermarket after promotion.

At the beginning of this month, Langjiu, Hengchang Shaofang and Guoyuan liquor industry announced price increases one after another. Lang Liquor sales company issued a notice, 530 blue and white wine out of the planned quota price of 1179 yuan, the proposed retail price of 1499 yuan, direct standard 53 degrees Feitian Maotai liquor, obviously, the terminal price inverted. Similarly, Shanxi Fenjiu (600809. SH) released a revival version of blue and white Fen Liquor with a market price of over 1000 yuan, and entered the high-end liquor market, but the transaction price on Jingdong was not more than 1000 yuan.

Lang liquor dealers acting as agents of blue and white Lang on e-commerce platform disclosed to 21st century economic reporter that the terminal market price of blue and white Lang is less than 1499 yuan, and the platform price is 1049 yuan. The manufacturer raised the factory price, which was less than 800 yuan last year, but now it is 850 yuan. As for the terminal price, it's still less than 9.9 yuan for the wholesale price, but it's still about 10 yuan after the wholesale price is raised. With the price difference of dozens of yuan plus logistics and packaging materials, dealers can only obtain meager profits and face great pressure.

But the stock can't be left out. "Lock in the profits of the manufacturer, so that the advance payment. Now the price reduction is more dealers in the performance pressure, the rush season behavior. " Xiao Zhuqing said that as to whether the price reduction will affect the brand image of manufacturers. This kind of promotion is often short-lived. Once the festival is over, most products will return to their original price.

?