Second Stage Of Live Broadcast Of Bulk Commodity Center Of Business Club: Hongye Futures And Analysts Of Business Club Jointly Explore Mining Market

On October 27, Wangsheng business treasure (Stock Code: 002095, SZ)'s "bulk commodity live center" of SZ held the second live broadcast activity. The theme of this activity is "Hongye futures is a guest. Now, we will discuss the mining market in the fourth quarter together". The keynote guests include: Wu Yong, chief analyst of Hongye futures black business unit; he Hangsheng, chief editor of steel data business department of business society; and he Hangsheng, senior iron ore analyst.

It is reported that the main content of the live broadcast includes: after the iron ore month change, the high-level oscillation mode has been opened. After going down to 751, it began to pull up rapidly. "Opportunity" and "danger" coexist. Although the mine delivery volume has improved, the downstream operating rate still keeps the spot price high. On the disk, iron ore fluctuations intensified. After the madness, whether the dominant logic has changed and how to interpret the future market still need to analyze the deep reasons behind the "mining" joy.

(on the left is he Hangsheng, chief editor of steel data division of business society; on the right is Wu Yong, chief analyst of Hongye futures black business unit)

Wu Yong, chief analyst of the black business unit of Hongye futures, said the currency remained neutral. The latest LPR released on October 20 was the same as last month, and has remained unchanged for six consecutive months. In addition, Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, pointed out at the Financial Street Forum on October 21 that "monetary policy needs to keep the general gate of money supply and properly smooth the fluctuation of macro leverage ratio. In the future, China will implement normal monetary policy as long as possible.".

"In terms of supply, Australia's fourth quarter freight volume rebounded on a month on month basis. There are variables in vale, and we are concerned about the changes in market expectations. In terms of demand, the production restriction of environmental protection is not as expected, the operating rate continues to maintain a high level, and there is a certain demand for replenishment of the steel plant. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory continues to increase. In terms of the inventory structure, although it has been eased, the mainstream medium-sized and low-quality products have remained small and the overall balance continues to be tight. Wu Yong said.

He Hangsheng, chief editor of the steel data business division of the business society and senior iron ore analyst, said that in the first quarter of 2020, with the national boom of resuming production, the productivity utilization rate of domestic mines increased significantly. Under the guidance of downstream demand, the inventory also decreased significantly, continuously breaking the record low. The price of domestic minerals has also risen sharply. It can be seen that the current domestic mine market itself has a tight supply pattern, which is good for the ore price.

"From the perspective of iron ore market supply, domestic iron ore supply will maintain growth in the fourth quarter of 2020, but the increment of Brazilian ore will be less than that of Australia. In the high opening rate environment brought by high profits of steel mills, ore demand performed very well in the first three quarters. However, with the reduction of operating rate caused by steel plant maintenance and environmental protection production restriction, or the short-term contraction of ore demand is formed. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the iron ore market fundamentals are "loose supply and demand" pattern, and the overall import ore prices are still rising He Hangsheng said.

In the iron ore industry chain, the iron ore industry is in an important position in comparison with the iron ore industry. As an intermediate product in the industrial chain, billet is squeezed by both upstream iron ore and downstream finished products. The fluctuation range of its product price is relatively small, but its fluctuation frequency is the highest. When there is price fluctuation in the industrial chain, the sensitivity of billet price is higher than that of iron ore, and the reflection is faster than that of upstream ore and downstream thread.

He Hangsheng said that in the future outlook of iron ore, there is still a mismatch between the short-term supply and demand of iron ore in the later period, and there is room for price rise. The supply side will continue to increase, while the demand side will shrink depending on the start-up of the steel plant. In the winter off-season market, steel mills will gradually stop and reduce production, and the situation of oversupply at the end of the year will be prominent, which will affect the decline of ore prices. The overall downward market trend will be seen from October 2020 to the end of the year.

(Online Economic and social note: the picture shows a university in Zhejiang organizing students to watch live learning activities)

In view of the live broadcast, a university in Zhejiang organized students of relevant majors to watch and learn the lecture content of "live broadcast center of bulk commodities of business club" after the live broadcast activity. School enterprise cooperation, innovation and teaching.

According to reports, Hongye futures was established in 1995, mainly engaged in commodity futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage, futures investment consulting, asset management business, fund sales, risk management business and overseas business. More than 40 branches have been set up in major domestic financial centers and key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. In December 2015, Hongye Futures (Stock Code: 03678. HK) was listed on the main board of the stock exchange of Hong Kong.

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