Where Is America'S Election Looming?

As one of the most important international events of the year, one day from the countdown to the election day of the United States on November 3, especially the trade disputes between China and the United States in recent years and the sanctions imposed by the United States on some cotton textile enterprises in China, this election has attracted the attention of participants in the cotton industry. According to relevant media reports, starting from 8:00 a.m. Beijing time on November 4, U.S. state polling stations will be closed one after another. Who will be the winner in the end? And what will be the reaction of domestic and foreign financial markets? I believe it is a hot topic in cotton market recently. Although no one knows who will ultimately spend the US election, many people in the industry believe that its impact on the cotton market is the same.

First of all, most cotton related enterprises believe that although cotton is a crop, its financial attribute is strong, so its price trend is more vulnerable to the interference of the entire financial market. In particular, from the outbreak of Sino US trade friction in 2018 to the implementation of the first phase of Sino US trade agreement at the beginning of this year, the cotton market has basically changed around the progress of negotiation between the two countries. In September, the United States plans to impose a ban on cotton and cotton products in Xinjiang, and to add some domestic cotton related enterprises to the entity list, which will have a negative impact on the cotton market.

Secondly, as the two superpowers in the world, the integration of politics, economy and culture, as well as the inevitable market competition, will have a profound impact on the current and future development. According to the analysis of some professionals, no matter who is the winner in the US election, it can be seen from the US side's measures such as delaying the elimination time of some Chinese textile tariffs that China's cotton market will face more challenges in a certain period of time.

Moreover, due to the relatively high cost of domestic cotton textile raw materials and labor, some export-oriented enterprises gradually transfer to Southeast Asia and other countries. In recent years, the proportion of China's products exported to the United States is relatively high, so it is necessary to reduce the dependence on China's cotton to a certain extent and adjust the industrial layout.

In addition, the epidemic situation in some textile consuming countries such as Europe, the United States and India has worsened, which makes domestic enterprises worry about the future sustainable orders of downstream enterprises. Short term bearish mood will focus on the outbreak, or need to wait for this fuse will be ignited.