Forecast And Analysis On The Development Of China'S Clothing Industry From 2020 To 2024

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1.1 production scale of China's garment industry

1、 In 2019

According to the investment analysis and prospect forecast report of China's clothing industry from 2020 to 2024 issued by CICI, the data of the National Bureau of statistics show that from January to December 2019, the garment output of Enterprises above Designated Size in the garment industry has reached 24.472 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 3.28% and a decrease of 0.09% compared with the same period of last year.

Table 37 cumulative increase of output of Enterprises above Designated Size in the garment industry from 2017 to 2019

Source: National Bureau of statistics

2、 2020

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to August 2020, enterprises above Designated Size in the garment industry have completed a total of 13.481 billion pieces of clothing, a year-on-year decrease of 11.95%, and the decline rate is 1.47 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.

1.2 analysis of the impact of epidemic situation on China's clothing industry

In the first few months of 2020, the decline rate of China's textile and clothing exports was narrowed, and it increased for the first time in August. The overall export showed four characteristics: the export of anti epidemic materials such as masks and protective clothing increased significantly; the export of conventional textile and clothing products decreased significantly; the export of new formats such as cross-border e-commerce increased rapidly. As for the future situation, he believes that although the impact of the global epidemic may exist for a long time to come, the world economy is in a deep recession, the demand for international trade is falling sharply, the supply chain of global industrial chain is damaged, economic globalization is encountering adverse current, protectionism and unilateralism are on the rise, and foreign trade will face more and more complex challenges in the future. However, some new development opportunities will also come along, so we should be confident in the future.

According to the investment analysis and prospect forecast report of China's clothing industry in 2020-2024 issued by CICI, the export of anti epidemic materials such as masks continued to drive the growth of export throughout the year, and the export growth rate dropped from the peak of the epidemic, but it will maintain a certain scale in the future; The slowdown of global economic growth, the weakening of personnel flow and the increase of unemployment rate fundamentally restrain the global demand for clothing, home textiles and consumer goods. Sino US trade friction and other issues will inevitably have a profound impact on China's export distribution in the medium and long term. China's textile and garment industry will continue to effectively strengthen China's core position in Asia and even the global textile and clothing supply chain, actively explore the booming new market and the "belt and road" market, seek and cultivate new market space, gradually reduce the dependence on traditional markets, rely on the development of Internet + foreign trade (domestic trade) to bring more technical dividends, and promote the double circulation of consumption Ring.

Under the current situation, we should face up to the crisis, preserve our strength, and minimize the risks and losses. The opportunity of digital economy may come earlier, so we must plan ahead.

We should seize the opportunity in the crisis. The global digital era is coming rapidly. We need to accelerate the digital development of the industry, develop digital products, greatly reduce costs and improve market response. It can also reduce transportation expenses.

We must adhere to the determination, strengthen the supply chain management, and prepare for the market recovery in the post epidemic era. Textile and garment industry is one of the industries affected by the epidemic situation and trade friction between China and the United States.

1.3 characteristics of main consumer groups in clothing market

According to the report on investment analysis and Prospect Forecast of China's clothing industry from 2020 to 2024 issued by CIC Industry Research Institute, the new main force is changing the entire consumer market. China has more than 400 million people born in the 1980s and 1990s, accounting for nearly one third of China's population. Coupled with the gradual entry into the market after 00, China's clothing market ushers in a new consumer force. They not only have a strong ability to spend, but also receive good education. They have their own attitudes and ideas, and have their own consumption value proposition. For example, they don't spend freely, but when they meet a product they really like, they will buy it immediately, regardless of the price.

Young women's consumption can not be ignored, which is the guiding force of consumption reform. The new generation of Chinese women pay attention to the fashion trend through wechat public accounts and news information platform, and participate in the consumption, dissemination and production of fashion information by means of short video and live network broadcast. They not only support the professional influence of opinion leaders, but also process and share new fashion content based on brand fashion information, thus contributing to the formation of fashion trends.

In addition, the middle-aged and elderly people are pouring into the tide of consumption upgrading. The consumption potential of the middle-aged and the elderly is large and generous. At the same time, the proportion of online and offline consumption of the elderly is increasing.

1.4 investment opportunities in textile and garment supply chain

According to the report on investment analysis and Prospect Forecast of China's clothing industry in 2020-2024 issued by CICI, the popularity of the track in the textile and garment industry chain has increased significantly since 2019, leading institutions have dropped in succession, dozens of financing cases have been made, and the track is in full swing.

1、 Textile and garment industry chain is a unique opportunity for China in the world

If you look at this track, it is very difficult to find foreign benchmarking in the industry chain segment market, except for Zara and UNIQLO, which are often talked about, to predict the development path of a start-up company. In the textile and clothing industry chain, China has the only development opportunity in the world. The main reason is that it has the world's absolute leading textile and garment production capacity (foreign trade / domestic sales), and reaches the largest single consumer market in the terminal world through perfect infrastructure and diversified and three-dimensional channels (media / online / offline), which will surely produce global leading development opportunities.

2、 Textile and garment industry extends to Southeast Asia instead of transferring

In recent years, it is an indisputable fact that China's garment factories have transferred to Southeast Asian countries. The following question is: will the foundation of China's clothing supply chain be shaken? Will China's clothing supply chain industry be in the wrong direction and become a person standing on a high position? Our view is that China's clothing supply chain industry will still lead for a long time.

（1） From 2013 to 2017, China's global share of clothing exports continued to decline, from 39.19% to 33.60%, a decrease of 5.59%. At the same time, Southeast Asian countries' clothing export share increased. On the other hand, the share of Southeast Asia will increase by only 2.0%. Vietnam is a country with a population of 100 million. In terms of the size of its employees and the size of its economy, it is difficult to affect China's fundamentals. The relative potential of other Southeast Asian countries is weaker than that of Vietnam.

（2） The core attraction of industrial transfer comes from the low labor cost and rent of Southeast Asian countries, but the rapid growth of these two items in the past few years has also greatly weakened the attractiveness of Southeast Asian countries. The advantages of domestic workers in complex technology, the convenience of culture and management, and the geographical advantages of domestic industrial clusters further reduce the attractiveness of Southeast Asian countries, and even lead to backflow.

The clothing industry in Southeast Asian countries is the extension of China's supply chain network rather than a substitute. A large number of raw materials are produced in China, exported to Southeast Asian countries to complete labor-intensive sewing processing, and then sold to external markets (mainly Europe and the United States). In this supply chain network, China is absorbing cheap labor from Southeast Asian countries, but the core position of the supply chain organization has not been shaken. The external orders are mainly large orders for foreign trade, while a very large proportion of domestic sales orders remain in China. Because in the clothing production and circulation chain, intensive enterprise cooperation, rapid response cycle, the requirements of industrial agglomeration are very strong.

（3） A huge, decentralized and fully competitive market breeds opportunities for change and innovation

The textile and garment industry chain has a scale of one trillion yuan. There are more than 100 listed enterprises (only supply chain enterprises, excluding brand enterprises) in the field, and the head company Shenzhou International has a valuation of more than 100 billion yuan. Even so, the market concentration is still very low. Shenzhou International's revenue in 2018 is more than 20 billion yuan. Compared with the trillions of foreign trade and domestic sales market, the market share may be less than 1%. Tens of thousands of small and medium-sized clothing supply chain enterprises are distributed in various industrial belts in China. In these scattered industrial cells, there must be great opportunities. The most important point is that the whole textile and clothing industry chain is a market with full competition. With the change of external environment, enterprises in the industry will actively seek survival and change. This kind of sensitivity and acceptance is not possessed by industries with insufficient competition.