Adapt To Changes, Seek New Ideas, Keep Steady And Achieve Long-Term Development: Textile Industry Under The Changing Situation Of A Century

It has been more than two years since the important conclusion that "the world is in a great change not seen in a hundred years" was first put forward. The new journey of the "fourteenth five year plan" is about to start, and is in the important historical intersection period of the "two centenary" goals. As an important basic industry supporting the national economic and social development, ensuring and improving people's livelihood, and meeting the new expectations of the people, the textile industry is duty bound to break through the situation and make innovations in order to move forward steadily.

The impact of the century change on the development of the textile industry during the "14th five year plan" period is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

　　01

Major changes in international cooperation mechanism

Since this century, the pattern of international power balance has changed significantly. In the heyday of economic globalization, the speed of economic development between developed and developing countries has been polarized for a long time, and emerging economies have risen collectively on the international economic and political arena. As a big developing country, China is approaching the center of the international stage. After getting rid of poverty and a well-off society in an all-round way, the huge and high-quality domestic demand market will become the core engine of the world economy. In recent years, the anti globalization trend has been raised in the developed countries, unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise. The trade conflicts between China and the United States are particularly fierce, which shows that the developed countries led by the United States are seriously dissatisfied with the benefit distribution pattern brought about by the global multilateral cooperation mechanism under the WTO framework. The regional free trade agreements dominated by the super large economies of the United States, Europe and Japan, such as cptpp, EPA and evfta, have been signed Developed countries in Ming Dynasty are trying to build a new international economic cooperation order which is more beneficial to their own interests. During the "14th five year plan" period, the globalization mechanism centered on WTO may fall into stagnation, and the major changes in international cooperation mechanism will have an important impact on the world economic development and international industrial layout.

Compared with the global supply chain system under the condition of full cooperation, the international supply chain under the new pattern will inevitably face the reality of declining efficiency, and the world economic growth will deviate more from the potential level. After the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, the growth center of the world economy has been reduced from nearly 5% to about 3%. In the "14th five year plan" period, considering the factors such as the decline of supply chain efficiency, the new epidemic situation and the financial system risk, the growth center level of the world economy may be further down compared with the epidemic situation. For China's textile industry, this means that the "fourteenth five year plan" will be in the market fundamentals of slowing down the total demand growth. At the same time, China's textile enterprises are familiar with the international economic and trade cooperation environment will change significantly, the risk of trade friction will remain high, the risk of integrating overseas high-quality resources will rise, and capital cooperation will face more obstacles.

In the near future, the belt and road initiative will play a more important role in international economic and trade cooperation. Based on its core position in the international supply chain system, China's textile industry will have the opportunity to better guide the international industrial chain and supply chain cooperation pattern and open up an innovative development era.

　　02

New crown pneumonia epidemic has a far-reaching impact

The global outbreak of new coronavirus pneumonia in 2020 is the most serious public health crisis so far in this century. The impact of the new epidemic on world economic development is far more than the temporary economic slowdown and international supply chain disruption caused by the blockade and prevention measures. In the long run, more deep-seated impacts will emerge one by one.

Some scientific studies have shown that the new coronavirus may exist for a long time, or at least can not disappear in a short period of time. The lifestyle and social habits formed for the purpose of epidemic prevention still need to continue. The weak demand caused by maintaining social distance, reducing gathering activities and changing consumption scenarios will continue for some time, resulting in delayed investment and innovation activities and long labor force Time off job and other issues will damage the foundation of economic development. What's more, during the epidemic period, the shortage of medical and anti epidemic materials and the serious sluggish operation of the international supply chain have made many countries realize the importance of industrial security and economic security. Strengthening the endogenous power of economic development and improving the domestic industrial system will become the inevitable policy choice. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, many developed countries have encouraged their enterprises to return to their overseas invested manufacturing industries. In this context, China has also put forward the strategy of establishing a "dual cycle" development pattern with domestic major circulation as the main factor and international and domestic mutual promotion.

In the post epidemic era, China's textile industry is facing not only the limited increment and fierce competition in the international market, but also the profound changes in the international development environment and competition pattern. Under this situation, it has become a complex task for textile enterprises to arrange the development route of international trade and foreign investment. At the same time, better tapping the domestic demand market potential with unique scenery and deeply integrating into the domestic development cycle will be the basis for the textile industry to achieve steady progress in the "14th five year plan".

　　3

Profound adjustment of international industrial development pattern

With the profound changes in the international economic and political pattern and the far-reaching impact of the new epidemic, the pattern of international industrial distribution will also change beyond expectations. For a long time, the traditional supply chain construction principles such as resource allocation efficiency and "cost-effectiveness" have been playing a fundamental role in the adjustment of international industrial pattern. Since the reform and opening up, China's manufacturing industry has grasped the opportunity of international industrial transformation based on this economic law. However, with the emergence of the trend of anti globalization, the new epidemic situation has caused many countries to consider economic security. A series of non economic factors are having an important impact on the distribution pattern of international industrial chain. The vertical and decentralized reconstruction of industrial chain and supply chain in a country or a certain region has become an important development trend of international industrial chain and supply chain. The breakthrough development of modern science and technology provides support for resolving the supply bottleneck of labor force, raw materials and other production factors and cost comparative disadvantage. The industrial chain is shortened and the supply chain is optimized, which makes the vertical trend of international industrial layout more feasible.

Under the new situation, the textile industry in recent years has always been facing the situation of "blocking in front of the rear" can not be eased. Although in reality, there are still many obstacles in the return of manufacturing industry to developed countries, which may not achieve obvious results, but it is an inevitable policy choice to prevent further loss of key links. High tech fiber materials involve many application fields and national security strategies. Developed countries will impose more stringent control and blockade on key and core technologies and equipment. The application of intelligent new technologies will also slow down the withdrawal rate of traditional manufacturing links from developed countries.

As for developing countries, in the case of extremely complex international situation, the procurement layout strategy of international purchasers will be more decentralized, and the regional free trade cooperation agreement led by developed countries will become an important basis for distribution. Therefore, the role of Asian and African developing countries in the international textile supply chain manufacturing will be further strengthened, and the industrial chain will be further improved. China's textile industry will form a more complex competition and cooperation relationship with Asian and non textile industrial countries. It is not only a competitor on the supply side, but also a business partner in the industrial chain. It will also cooperate closely and depend on each other in international investment and capacity distribution. Under the "double cycle" development pattern, it is an important test for the wisdom of the textile industry and enterprises to construct an effective new path of international development and realize deep embedding into the international supply chain.

　　04

Opportunities and challenges brought by the new technological revolution

Since the beginning of this century, a new round of scientific and technological revolution has been rising for many years, but it is still vigorous today. Scientific and technological innovation has made many breakthroughs in the fields of artificial intelligence, new materials and biotechnology. The deep cross integration, diffusion and penetration of interdisciplinary high-tech constantly update the research and development paradigm and application fields, and broaden the innovation and development space of human production and life in an all-round way. In many fields of the new scientific and technological revolution, China and developed countries are on the starting line, facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges.

Although there are only a few fields in the forefront of the new technological revolution, the textile industry still benefits a lot from it. In order to seize the opportunity of a new round of scientific and technological revolution, innovation driven strategy has received unprecedented attention in China, and the software and hardware environment of scientific and technological innovation has been significantly optimized. China's mobile communications, transportation and other aspects of infrastructure conditions are very superior, science and technology system for many years to continue to reform and improve, constantly explore the new technology path of cross domain integration and innovation, providing a good foundation for the innovation and development of all walks of life. The huge economic scale and numerous subjects make all kinds of high-tech have a wide and diversified application market, which not only provides a strong demand power, but also enlarges the effect of innovation. In recent years, China's textile industry has made rapid progress in the field of independent R & D and application of intelligent production lines, which is inseparable from the superior domestic innovation conditions and the strong application demand of the industry itself.

From another point of view, the new scientific and technological revolution relies on the transmission and accumulation of extensive data and information, so as to obtain innovation power through extensive integration. However, the adverse current of globalization will obviously hinder scientific and technological innovation. Most of the few science and technology weaknesses in China's textile industry are concentrated in the field of high-tech materials. In the future, the cost of international cooperation will increase greatly. How to effectively carry out international cooperation and realize self-reliance on this basis is also a problem to be explored.

　　05

Responding to the climate crisis calls for responsible development

In recent years, the situation of global climate change is becoming more and more serious, and the climate crisis events caused by global warming are increasing. With the rise of anti globalization trend, the Paris agreement has been pushed forward with twists and turns, making it more difficult to establish an effective global climate governance system. Global warming is about to enter a critical point. Crossing the critical point means that the climate crisis is irreversible, and the time window left for the international community to deal with it is more and more limited. The task of realizing carbon dioxide output and eliminating the "net zero emission" in the same phase is urgent and difficult.

China's national economy and industrial industry are still in the total growth cycle. According to the relevant contents of the "suggestions on formulating the 14th five year plan and the long-term goal in 2035" recently released by the CPC Central Committee, China will reach the peak of carbon emission before 2030, and the important task of Climate Governance remains to be solved. Textile industry in the "14th five year plan" period will no longer take the total growth as the development goal, but the task of carbon emission reduction is still arduous. At the same time, the proposal on the formulation of the 14th five year plan and the long-term goal in 2035 continue to strengthen the ecological environment protection concept of "green water and green mountains are golden mountains and silver mountains", indicating that the tasks of pollution prevention and control and rigid constraints of water resources are long-term and arduous. From a longer-term perspective, it is also the responsibility of the world's industrial powers to base development on the well-being of future generations and human climate security.

During the period of the "14th five year plan", in order to continuously improve the capacity of carbon emission reduction per unit output, the textile industry will continue to promote the R & D and application of energy-saving and low-consumption processing technology. Meanwhile, it is necessary to carry out forward-looking basic research related to net zero emission, explore the establishment of relevant industry management and service system, and lay a solid foundation for the realization of the total carbon emission peak. At the same time, it is very urgent to solve the contradiction between the demand of textile industry chain for printing and dyeing processing, resources and ecological environment, whether from the perspective of technological breakthrough or sustainable development of industry.

The proposal on the formulation of the 14th five year plan and the long-term goal of 2035 points out that China's development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities, and the basic judgment of the situation remains unchanged, but new development and changes have taken place in both opportunities and challenges. For the textile industry, changes give the test, break the situation to create opportunities.

Know how to change the situation and turn danger into opportunity! Adapt to change, seek new, go steady and go far! ?