Beijing Passenger Car Lottery New Deal Will Be Implemented Next Year

"Buy a card and report your household registration, age and gender."

On the afternoon of December 7, when the 21st century economic report reporter asked how to handle the transfer of Beijing brand index, second-hand car dealer Lao Liu sent the above content to the reporter.

"There are still more than 20 days left. There is still time to do so this year, and there will be a new policy next year." Then, Lao Liu sent another wechat to the reporter.

On the morning of December 7, the new policy of laoliukouzhong was officially issued by Beijing Municipal Communications Commission as the implementation rules of "Interim Provisions on the number of passenger cars in Beijing" and "Interim Regulations on the number of passenger cars in Beijing" (revised in 2020). The new policies will be implemented on January 1, 2021.

The biggest difference from the current policy is that the new policy will promote the orderly withdrawal of the second or more passenger cars registered in the city under the individual name. According to the Beijing Municipal Commission of transportation, the passenger car index is a limited social public resource, and the principle of "each person can retain at most one indicator" should be established.

Among them, "one person more vehicles" or "back door" can only choose one of the updated indicators, but the vehicle as personal property can be used until scrapped. At the same time, individuals who have more than one car under their name are allowed to apply online to transfer the surplus vehicles to their spouses, parents and children who meet the requirements.

More importantly, in order to crack down on the behavior of buying and selling Beijing minibus indicators through illegal behaviors such as "marriage transfer", starting from January 1, 2021, when handling the change registration of vehicles between husband and wife, and the transfer registration of divorce and property analysis vehicles, the conditions for the expiration of one year of marriage shall be met.

The new deal has raised the cost of "false marriage transfer". Some people are eager to take action because they have too many "maintenance standards".

Experts call for "loosening restrictions on purchase"

In fact, in the view of the industry, behind the gray trading of passenger car indicators is a microcosm of the increasingly unbalanced supply and demand of passenger car indicators since the implementation of the car purchase lottery policy in Beijing. The fundamental problem behind it is the increasingly serious traffic congestion in the city after the car ownership has increased linearly.

In order to control the traffic congestion in Beijing, the Interim Regulation on the number of passenger cars in Beijing was implemented on December 23, 2010. Beijing has also become the first city in China to draw numbers to buy minibuses.

In January 2011, at the beginning of the implementation of the policy, the winning rate of passenger car index was 1:10.6; in the latest issue of passenger car index allocation in early October this year, the winning probability has dropped to 1:3120.

In order to meet the travel needs of more citizens, the new policy has increased the index allocation method of "car less family" as the unit and the score ranking. On the basis of the draft regulation and control policy on the number of passenger cars in June 2020, the new deal adjusted the proportion of household new energy indicators and set a three-year transition period. In 2021, 60% of the number of new energy passenger cars will be allocated to "car less families".

"On the whole, the new deal has changed the rules for the allocation of indicators. In fact, the rules are being adjusted every year, and there is no change in the total amount. So the main solution is how to" cut the cake ". Now, it will benefit the local car less families." On the afternoon of December 7, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information association, said in an interview with reporters.

The new deal will, to some extent, improve the current situation of "car less families" in Beijing, but the root causes of lottery numbers, namely, urban congestion and air pollution, are still unable to be significantly alleviated.

"Restricting the purchase and transportation of automobiles is not a long-term solution to traffic problems." An industry expert familiar with the policy told reporters that international experience shows that to deal with traffic congestion, we need to take measures including vigorously developing rail transit, optimizing urban structure, improving the level of traffic management and infrastructure construction, implementing automobile consumption policies that encourage purchase, guide and economize on use, and implement regional vehicle restrictions (such as setting up low emission zones), etc Engineering.

"It is not in line with the spirit of the central government to restrict the purchase of automobiles as the main means of regulating and controlling automobile consumption. If this practice is continued during the period of the 14th five year plan, it is not in line with the spirit of the central government." The experts said.

It is understood that this year's "fourteenth five year plan" proposes to promote the transformation of automobile and other consumer goods from purchase management to use management. Some industry experts believe that this "change" means that the foothold of future automobile policy will be more emphasis on the use orientation, and some restrictions on purchase will be relaxed.

At the same time, on October 19, the national development and Reform Commission held a regular press conference, and spokesman Meng Wei also said: "the next step will be to promote the sustained growth of the consumption of bulk commodities and services, promote the transformation and upgrading of automobile consumption, promote the transformation from purchase restriction to guided use, and encourage all localities to go out of Taiwan and promote the policy of replacing old cars."

In the view of the experts mentioned above, it is not a long-term plan to implement the purchase management of passenger cars. As a government administrator, it is necessary to speed up the "make-up lesson" while restricting the purchase, learn from the international advanced experience, improve the urban infrastructure and optimize the urban management level; at the same time, use tax policies and other means to gradually guide the transformation of automobile and other consumer goods from purchase management to use management.

What is noteworthy is that the Beijing Transport Commission also said that the relevant departments will further study and demonstrate the implementation of the urban master plan for policy recommendations such as congestion charges and suburban license plates, which are highly demanded.

"In terms of technology and management means, there is no difficulty in improving the traffic environment by imposing congestion charges, but the key is how to change consumers' mentality, which requires an adaptive process." Cui Dongshu said.

"Competition" between stock and increment

According to the latest data of the Ministry of transport, by the end of 2019, the number of motor vehicles in Beijing has exceeded 6.36 million, ranking first in China.

According to the annual report of Beijing Traffic Development released by Beijing Transportation Development Research Institute, the traffic congestion coefficient in Beijing has dropped from 6.14 in 2010 to 5.48 in 2019, which belongs to "mild congestion". Under the policy of purchasing restriction, Beijing's "blocking" seems to be effective.

However, under the policy, disputes continue. For the automotive industry, car purchase restrictions also limit car consumption, especially for China's auto market, which has declined overall since 2018.

Up to now, there are six cities and one province in China: Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Shenzhen and Hainan Province. Therefore, it has become the voice of the automobile industry to relax the restrictions on purchase and promote consumption.

Huaxi Securities predicts that at present, the accumulated demand of China's limited purchase cities is more than 8 million. If it is gradually digested in five years, it is estimated that it will contribute about 1.6 million vehicles to the market every year and contribute about 6% elasticity to the growth rate of the automobile industry. If the purchase restriction policy is gradually liberalized, the automobile market will usher in greater development space under the real demand.

Since 2019, in order to stabilize automobile consumption, relevant departments have repeatedly mentioned in the policy the relaxation of car purchase restrictions.

In January 2019, 10 ministries and commissions including the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of transport jointly issued the implementation plan for further optimizing supply, promoting steady growth of consumption and promoting the formation of a strong domestic market (2019), proposing "measures to optimize the management of motor vehicle purchase restriction" to promote automobile consumption.

In June 2019, the national development and Reform Commission issued the implementation plan for promoting the renewal and upgrading of key consumer goods and unimpeded resource recycling (2019-2020). It is proposed that local governments that have implemented car purchase restriction should speed up the shift from restricted purchase to guided use, and local governments shall not impose restrictions on new energy vehicles, and those already implemented shall be cancelled.

In fact, there have been tentative moves in many places to relax the restrictions on car purchase. For example, Guangzhou and Hangzhou have recently increased tens of thousands of car purchase indicators. In addition to increasing the purchase index, Shenzhen has also relaxed the restrictions on vehicle purchasing qualifications. Guiyang city is the biggest and most thorough way to relax the restrictions on car purchase. On September 12, 2019, Guiyang municipal government announced that it would cancel the lottery policy for car purchase, becoming the first city in China to implement the policy of purchasing restriction.

However, after the implementation of the vehicle license plate policy, the local government must solve the problem of how to stimulate the enthusiasm of the local government in the future.