House Price In The Era Of Strong Control

After a series of actions such as tightening credit and strengthening regulation, the rising curve of house prices this year is tending to ease.

On December 14, the National Bureau of statistics released data showing that in November this year, 70 large and medium-sized cities saw a fall in house prices. Among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 36 cities have seen a rise in the price of new commercial residential buildings, the number of which is the lowest since March this year.

On average, the price increases in the first, second and third tier cities are flat or falling. Among them, the second and third tier cities saw a lower rise in house prices, while the first tier cities led the rise again.

The National Bureau of statistics's statement of housing price changes has changed from "keeping stable" in the past few months to "falling in stability". According to the agency's point of view, with the introduction of various regulatory policies, the driving force of house price rise is weakening.

Near the end of the year, the real estate policy level action is frequent. It is mentioned that "the real estate market is not stable" and "the real estate market is not stable". This is interpreted as a signal that the policy will not be relaxed, and it is also a good factor for "maintaining stability" of house prices.

After a series of actions such as tightening credit and strengthening regulation, the rising curve of house prices this year is tending to ease. -Photo by Gan Jun

"Three red lines" aggravate the "upside down" of house prices

In November this year, 36 out of 70 large and medium-sized cities saw a rise in the price of new houses, the number of which was the lowest since March this year. New house prices fell in 28 cities, the highest in recent years.

Specifically, the average price of new houses in four first tier cities increased by 0.2% month on month, 31 second tier cities by 0.1% and 35 third tier cities by 0.1%, both of which were flat or falling back from the previous month. In terms of second-hand housing, the price of first, second and third tier cities rose by 0.5%, 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.

It can be seen that prices in the second and third tier cities, which have risen rapidly in the past few months, have eased, while the first tier cities have led the rise again.

In this regard, Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, said that this was mainly related to the relatively abundant liquidity in half a year, and the houses in core cities were sought after by funds. With the recent tightening of credit environment, the real estate in core cities also shows better value preservation.

Among them, Guangzhou new house prices rose 0.9% month on month, ranking second in 70 large and medium-sized cities. Second hand house prices rose 0.8% month on month, leading the rise.

Shell Research Institute pointed out that in November, the turnover of second-hand residential buildings in Guangzhou increased by 15.7% month on month, and the annual turnover was expected to increase by about 23% year-on-year. The increase in transaction volume has promoted the rise of housing prices in Guangzhou. "The Guangzhou market has been relatively stable. Since this year, the market is expected to continue to be good, and the demand is positive. At the same time, after the regulation and control of Shenzhen and Dongguan in the surrounding areas, the demand spillover has driven the Guangzhou property market to warm up. "

In terms of classification, the rise of second-hand housing prices in hot cities is generally higher than that of new houses. For example, Beijing's new house prices fell 0.1% month on month last month, while second-hand house prices rose 0.5%.

In recent years, the phenomenon of first-hand housing prices hanging upside down in hot cities has always existed. Because most cities impose price limits on new houses, and there is no relevant price limit policy for second-hand houses, the price of second-hand houses in the same region is usually higher than that of new houses.

In addition, "this is also related to the active adjustment of real estate enterprises." A person in charge of a listed real estate enterprise in Beijing told the 21st century economic report that after the launch of the "three red lines" policy, some real estate enterprises reduced their leverage by means of inventory in the past. In addition, near the end of the year, real estate companies are also seizing the impact of year-end sales tasks. Therefore, in the fourth quarter of the new house sales, the phenomenon of yield is more common, and affects the price performance of the new housing market.

According to the recent sales bulletin issued by real estate enterprises, the sales prices of rongchuang, COSCO and Jianye in November all declined, even lower than that in the same period last year.

Real estate companies are still at the peak of debt repayment

In June this year, housing prices in large and medium-sized cities began to decline after the historical peak of 70. In October and November, the number of cities with house prices rising rapidly decreased, while the number of cities falling significantly increased.

In the view of most respondents, this trend is related to changes at the policy level. On the one hand, monetary policy has gradually returned to neutral, the loose credit environment for house purchase since the second quarter has ended, and the threshold for house purchase has been raised.

In the 36 cities monitored by Shell Research Institute, the mainstream housing loan interest rate level gradually stabilized, and the average lending cycle of bank lending was prolonged, which was 8 days longer than that in November and July.

On the other hand, more and more cities have joined the ranks of regulation and control, and have extinguished the "spark" of housing price rise before. According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real estate, from July to November this year, there were 32, 32, 35, 22 and 33 times of real estate regulation and control policies.

In fact, since November, the frequency of property market regulation has not decreased, but the specifications have been raised again.

The proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on formulating the 14th five year plan for national economic and social development and the long-term goals for the year 2035, which was issued on November 4, pointed out that we should adhere to the position that houses are used for living, not for speculation. We should promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market by combining rent and purchase with urban policies.

On December 3, Han Zheng, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, held a forum at the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, stressing that "housing and housing do not stir fry". The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on December 11 said that "we should promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market".

Xu Xiaole believes that in the medium and long term, the real estate regulation will continue the keynote of "no speculation on housing and housing", stabilize the fluctuation of house prices and deepen the regulation and control of housing finance. Due to the strict control of both supply and demand leverage, the driving force of house price rise will be further weakened.

Xie Chen, director of CBRE CBRE CBRE CBRE CBRE China Research Department, told the 21st century economic report that the overall policy of the property market in 2021 will be slightly tighter than this year, but "the housing market will not be fried, and the policy will be implemented according to the city" is still the main theme. It is expected that the number of new construction and sales volume in next year will decrease slightly compared with this year, but the price trend will still be stable.

Xie Chen pointed out that this year and the next two years will be the peak when developers' bonds are due, and there will be 870 billion yuan and 900 billion yuan of real estate enterprise credit bonds respectively. In the future, developers will continue to maintain financing demand, but also increase sales, and the driving force of substantial price increase is not sufficient.

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