Top Performance Of Public Funds: ICBC Credit Suisse And ABC Huili Lead The "Banking System" To Be Tested

"Looking at the ranking to buy funds is not reliable, do not look at the rankings to buy funds is particularly unreliable." On December 24, Zeng Linghua, director of Haomai fund research center, said.

This kind of cognition actually reflects the whole market's obsession with the year-end ranking data of public funds.

Many people did not expect that in the last month of 2020, there will be a lot of variables in the fund performance ranking war.

As of December 23, reporters of 21st century economic report tracked the data and found that there were 6 public funds in the year compared with the end of November.

Up to now, there are only five trading days left before the end of 2020. Who will win the championship and who will stay in the top 10?

Competition has become more and more tight.

Top 10 exchange transfusion

According to wind data statistics, as of December 23, the top three fund performance in 2020 are the three funds managed by ABC Huili Zhao Yi, which are respectively Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) Huili industry 4.0, ABC Huili new energy theme and ABC Huili research selection, with their return rates reaching 156.98%, 155.20% and 146.17%, respectively.

The remaining 7 top 10 companies are: ICBC Credit Suisse small and medium Cap Growth (128.01%), GF high end manufacturing a (125.21%), Nord value advantage (125.08%), HSBC Jinxin low carbon pioneer (124.74%), chuangcheng Hexin industry cycle selection a (123.22%), Nord cycle strategy (122.41%), HSBC Jinxin intelligent manufacturing pioneer a (122.27%).

It is worth noting that since December, the top 10 fund performance has changed, and there are 6 new funds, and the ranking has also changed greatly.

At the end of November, Guangfa's high-end manufacturing a was 126.28%, which was 115.58% higher than that of ABC Huili industry 4.0, reaching 11 percentage points. However, as of December 23, the revenue of AGB Huili industry 4.0 increased by 20.32% to 156.98%, while that of Guangfa high-end manufacturing a fell by 0.48% instead of rising, and that of ABC Huili industry 4.0 was reversed.

As a matter of fact, at the end of November, the three funds managed by Zhao Yi, namely, the Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) Huili industry 4.0, the new energy theme of abc-ca, and the research selection of abc-ca have achieved a return of about 20% since December. All of these three funds have achieved reverse surpluses and won the top three places.

In addition, ICBC Credit Suisse, which ranked 12th in performance at the end of November, also grew in the small and medium cap of ICBC Credit Suisse, which ranked 12th in performance at the end of November. It has risen 17.70% since December. At present, with 128.01% revenue in the year, it has won the fourth place in 125.21% of Guangfa's high-end manufacturing a, while Guangfa's high-end manufacturing a has dropped to No.5.

The six newly introduced top 10 funds are all relying on the excellent performance since December to realize the anti super.

Our reporter's statistics show that the return of six funds in December reached more than 15%. On the whole, in addition to GF high-end manufacturing a, the range returns of the remaining nine TOP10 funds since December are between 15.44% and 21.10%.

A question worth exploring is why there are a large number of funds that have turned over in the last month of this year?

Reporters found that in this year's final fund ranking sprint, the industry and heavy positions play an important role.

The path of turnovers

Take Zhao Yi, a fund manager who is currently the champion temporarily, as an example, the top ten stocks of the three funds under his management are basically the same.

Take the No.1 Agricultural Bank of China Huili industry 4.0 as an example. The fund has concentrated holdings. At the end of the third quarter, the top ten heavy positions accounted for more than 60% of the net value of the fund. The proportion of heavy positions and net worth of the fund were: Ningde times (7.96%), Yingliu shares (7.74%), Zhenhua Technology (7.53%), Tongwei shares (7.22%), Longji shares (7.14%), Ganfeng lithium (6.14%) and Putai (5.14%) 37%), neozhou state (4.79%), Xinquan shares (4.46%), Tiancai materials (4.34%).

These heavy positions are mainly concentrated in the new energy sector.

Since December, the new energy industry index of Shenwan industry has increased by 17.20%.

In December, the biggest day for the growth of ABC Huili industry 4.0 was December 21. On that day, due to the sharp rise of new energy concept stocks, Ningde times, Zhenhua Technology and Longji shares all increased by more than 10%, making the net value of the fund rise as high as 5.93% in a single day.

On the same day, the other two funds managed by Zhao Yi, which are similar to those in heavy positions, namely, the Agricultural Bank of China Huili new energy theme and the Agricultural Bank of China Huili research collection, rose by 6.27% and 5.98% respectively.

As a matter of fact, according to the reporter's review of the heavy positions of the top 10 performance funds during the year, all of them have heavy positions in the new energy industry. The more overlapping heavy positions include Ningde times, Tongwei shares, Longji shares and Dongfang Risheng. Since December 24, the range returns of the four stocks have been 28%, 24%, 32% and 55%, with a fierce rise.

It is precisely because of the new energy industry and the soaring of related stocks that a number of funds with heavy positions in new energy have entered the top 10 in December.

In addition, in addition to heavy positions in new energy stocks, there are also funds in top 10 funds that also have heavy positions in the food and beverage industry. For example, two funds managed by Luo Shifeng - Nord value advantage and Nord cycle strategy.

In fact, as of December 24, the food and beverage industry index has also risen by 12% since December, and the liquor index has soared by 23%.

"From the performance ranking point of view, the year, especially in the last month, has a relatively big change, mainly because this month there are some sectors of rapid progress, such as liquor and new energy, but there are also some sectors down, so this leads to relatively large fluctuations in performance." Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said.

As a matter of fact, both the funds entered the top 10 due to their heavy positions in new energy stocks in the last month, and some funds fell into the altar due to the adjustment of positions.

Guangfa high-end manufacturing a ranked first in revenue at the end of November, far ahead. However, when the new energy industry soared in December under the market rotation, the high-end manufacturing of Guangfa, which was still heavily invested in new energy at the end of the third quarter, fell slightly.

"Judging from the current performance of GF high-end manufacturing, it should be a position adjustment. The top 10 heavy positions shown in the three quarterly reports have performed well in the past week and in the past month, with a large increase. However, the performance of the net fund value is relatively weak. The high-end stocks with good performance have been adjusted, and the net value fluctuation elasticity is relatively reduced." Zhang Ting, chief strategist of Ge Shang financial management, believes that.

"Champion curse" selection logic

This year is the new year of funds, and equity public funds have generally achieved good returns.

According to wind data statistics, as of December 23, the average return of funds established before 2020 this year is 54.11% for general equity funds, 52.62% for partial equity hybrid funds, and 37.28% for flexible allocation hybrid funds.

Since this year, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index have increased by 10.26%, 33.41% and 56.87% respectively.

So, what are the characteristics of the top funds this year?

"One is that most of the heavy positions are in the industries with the highest growth rate this year, such as electrical equipment, medical biology, electronics, chemical industry, food and beverage, etc.; the second is that in the industries with the highest growth rate, high-quality individual stocks are selected, and the excess returns far exceed the industry's growth rate; the third is that the fund management positions are relatively concentrated, which makes the fund more flexible." Zhang Ting thinks.

The reporter found that there is a new phenomenon among the top funds in this year's performance. There are a large number of bank based funds from ABC Huili and ICBC Credit Suisse.

For example, four of the top 10 performance in the year belonged to the banking system, including three ABC funds managed by Zhao Yi and one ICBC fund managed by Huang Anle, accounting for 40%. If it is expanded to the top 30 within the year, four of them belong to the fund of Agricultural Bank of China, and eight belong to the fund of Credit Suisse of ICBC. It also accounted for 40%.

Moreover, it is often a fund manager who manages a number of outstanding bank funds. For example, among the top 30 performance in the year, Zhao Yi of ABC Huili managed 4 funds; Huang Anle and he Xiaojie of ICBC Credit Suisse managed 3 funds each.

For this phenomenon, Yang Delong believes that "this year, many banking fund performance ranking higher, there is a certain contingency, but also inevitable, because this year's performance of funds are generally heavy positions in medicine, consumption, new energy, these performance funds may seize the rhythm of the market, so get better returns."

Zhang Ting explained that there are several reasons: first, the holding industry and individual stocks of these funds are suitable for this year's market, and their holdings are relatively concentrated, resulting in higher beta returns and alpha returns; second, the same fund manager manages several funds, and the positions of several funds are very similar, which will show that many products managed by the same fund manager are ranked at the top; third, they are The ability circle of fund managers is suitable for this year's market, and the stock selection ability is also relatively excellent.

In fact, fund ranking war can bring incentive and honor to fund managers, and lay a reputation and investors accumulation for attracting more incremental funds in the future.

The influence of fund ranking mainly has several aspects: first, whether the style of fund managers is good at is suitable for the market situation of that year; second, whether the individual stocks of fund positions have strong excess returns; third, whether the industry of fund positions and the difficulty of individual stock concentration are higher.

"It is difficult to see the persistence of the long-term performance of the fund manager when the fund wins the championship in a year. It is necessary to judge whether the investment philosophy, investment style and performance of the fund manager match, and whether the sustainability of the performance is good." Zhang Ting said.

Zhang Ting believes that "in the field of public offering, the curse of Champions often exists, mainly because the positions of the industry and individual stocks that have won the championship will be relatively concentrated, with strong explosive force, and the range of callback will be relatively larger. Therefore, when these stocks have a higher rise, whether they can sell in time and find the stocks with higher performance price ratio is very important

"Therefore, when selecting funds, we should try to choose those with more than three years' performance ranking in the forefront of the same category, and the excess return and performance ranking are relatively stable. Then we will investigate the investment style and capability circle of fund managers, whether they perform well in the appropriate market, and whether they can reduce the fluctuation under the unsuitable market conditions, which is very important for the fluctuation of returns and rankings Large funds should be relatively vigilant. " Zhang Ting said.

Yang Delong also believes that "the curse of Champions" actually shows that the style of the market will change every year. Therefore, generally, the champion of one year can not guarantee good performance in the second year, and even some of the top two or even three or five years of the previous year show a countdown. Therefore, we should not excessively pursue the champion fund, but should pay more attention to the long-term performance of the past two or three or even three or five years Short term results. "

?