The Purchasing Manager Index Of The Manufacturing Industry In December Was Stable And Slow

On December 31, 2020, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing manager index. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe has carried on the interpretation.

In December, China's economic recovery continued to consolidate. The purchasing manager index, non manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index of China's manufacturing industry were 51.9%, 55.7% and 55.1%, respectively, which were lower than 0.2%, 0.7% and 0.6% of the previous month, but they were still at a relatively high level in the year, and remained above the boom and bust line for 10 consecutive months.

　 1. The purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry is stable and slightly down

In the fourth quarter, the pace of recovery of the manufacturing industry accelerated. In December, the PMI of the manufacturing industry was 51.9%, which was only 0.2 percentage points lower than the year's high of last month. The manufacturing industry generally maintained a good momentum of steady recovery, and its prosperity was at a high level in the year. Main features of the month:

First, both sides of production and demand continued to improve. The production index and new order index were 54.2% and 53.6% respectively, which were 0.5% and 0.3% lower than the previous month, but both were the second highest points in the year, and the difference between the two continued to narrow. The manufacturing industry maintained a good growth trend and the relationship between production and demand was more balanced. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the production index and new order index of 18 and 17 industries are in the expansion range respectively. Among them, the two indexes of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, general equipment, special equipment, computer communication electronic equipment and instrument are all higher than 56.0%. Compared with the previous month, the growth momentum of the industry is enhanced and the production activities are accelerated.

Second, the import and export index continued to expand for four consecutive months. The new export order index and import index were 51.3% and 50.4%, respectively, lower than 0.2% and 0.5% of the previous month, and continued to be in the boom zone. The survey results also show that the expected index of production and operation activities of export enterprises has rebounded for eight consecutive months, reaching the annual high point, and the manufacturing export enterprises' confidence in market development has been increasing.

Third, the leading role of high-tech manufacturing industry continues to show. Since this year, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry has always been higher than that of manufacturing industry as a whole, reaching 55.8% this month. Although it is down 0.4% from last month, it is still the second highest point in the year. Among them, the production index, new order index and employee index were 59.3%, 58.2% and 52.6%, respectively, which were 5.1%, 4.6% and 3.0% higher than that of the manufacturing industry as a whole, indicating that the high-tech manufacturing industry has a prosperous production and demand, and the labor demand has continued to grow, which has significantly driven the overall recovery of the manufacturing industry.

Fourth, the price index rose to the annual high. In recent years, the prices of some bulk commodities have continued to rise. In addition, the market demand continues to pick up, which has accelerated the rise of purchasing prices of raw materials and selling prices of products in the manufacturing industry. The purchasing price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials in this month were 68.0% and 58.9%, respectively, which were 5.4% and 2.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, both of which were annual highs. From the perspective of the industry, the two price indexes of upstream industries, such as petroleum processing, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, were all higher than 70.0%, significantly higher than the previous month. The rapid rise in the price of raw materials has increased the pressure on enterprises' costs. This month, 49.4% of the enterprises reflected the high cost of raw materials, which was a high point in recent two years.

Fifthly, the PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises continues to remain above the critical point. The PMI of both large and medium-sized enterprises was 52.7%, which continued to operate in the prosperous range of 52.0% and above; the PMI of small enterprises was 48.8%, lower than 1.3% of the previous month, and fell below the prosperity and withering line. In this month, the proportion of small enterprises reflecting high raw material cost, logistics cost and labor cost increased by 5.0%, 4.6% and 1.5% respectively compared with the previous month. The operating cost of small enterprises increased, and the profit space was squeezed to a certain extent.

　　 2、 Non manufacturing business activity index expansion slows down

In December, the non manufacturing business activity index was 55.7%, lower than 0.7% of the previous month, and remained at a relatively high boom range of more than 55.0%. The non manufacturing industry continued to recover steadily.

The service industry has maintained a high level. The business activity index of the service industry was 54.8%, which was lower than 0.9% of the previous month, but it was still at the high operating level of the whole year. From the perspective of the industry, the business activity index of air transport, telecommunications, radio and television satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, capital market services and other industries continued to be in the high boom range of more than 60.0%, and the total business volume grew rapidly. In addition, the business activity index of catering, real estate, ecological protection and environmental management industries was below the critical point, and the business activities of enterprises slowed down. In terms of price, the input price index and sales price index were 53.1% and 52.0%, respectively, 1.2% and 1.1% higher than that of the previous month. Affected by the obvious rise of commodity prices, the two price indexes of producer services closely related to manufacturing industry were significantly higher than those of active service industry. From the perspective of market expectation, the expected index of business activities is 60.1%, which is in the high prosperity range for six consecutive months, indicating that most service enterprises are optimistic about the stable recovery of the market.

The construction industry continued to maintain rapid growth. The business activity index of the construction industry was 60.7%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month. Among them, the business activity index of civil engineering and construction industry was 63.2%, 6.6% higher than that of last month, and the production activity was significantly accelerated. From the perspective of market demand, the index of new orders was 55.8%, 1.8% higher than that of the previous month, rising for two consecutive months, indicating that the number of new engineering contracts signed by construction enterprises continued to grow and market demand expanded steadily.

　 3. The overall operation of the comprehensive PMI output index is stable

In December, the comprehensive PMI output index was 55.1%, lower than 0.6% of the previous month, and remained at a relatively high prosperity range of more than 55.0% for four consecutive months, indicating that the production and operation activities of China's enterprises have continued to recover in the near future. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index which constitute the composite PMI output index are 54.2% and 55.7% respectively.