The 600 Billion Market Value Of "Youmao" Golden Dragon Fish: The Stock Price Tripled In March Of Listing, And The Total Market Value Exceeded That Of Haitian Flavor Industry. Has The Valuation Bubble Emerged?

On January 5, the golden dragon fish, which had been rising for many days, suddenly went out of fire. At 11:00, the stock price of golden dragon fish, which rose more than 12% in the morning, suddenly fell. As of the closing, the stock price fell by 1.72%, and the amplitude of the whole day was more than 18.61%.

Since it officially landed on the gem on October 15, 2020, the share price of golden dragon fish has been climbing. Up to now, the stock price has reached 122 yuan / share, 374.71% higher than the issuance price of 25.70 yuan / share, of which the cumulative stock price increase in the past month has reached 71.90%.

Up to now, the total market value of goldfish has exceeded 661.4 billion yuan, second only to Ningde era's 936.4 billion yuan, ranking the second largest market share on the gem, known as "Youmao" by the market. At the same time, golden dragon fish also surpassed seasoning brother Haitian flavor industry (with a total market value of 652.1 billion yuan as of January 5), and as one of the most prominent institutional group stocks of a share, Haitian flavor industry is known as "Maotai in soy sauce industry".

Why does the stock price of goldfish, which has only been listed for three months, continue to rise without obvious catalyst?

Stock prices are soaring

Since the listing, the golden dragon fish stock price is not "radical". In particular, since November 2020, the stock price of golden dragon fish has entered a fast upward range. In November and December 2020, the stock price of golden dragon fish has risen by 51.71% and 55.25% respectively. In 2021, the price of golden dragon fish has risen by 12.63% in only two trading days in January. When the stock price peaked, it had exceeded 139.9 yuan per share, and the total market value exceeded 700 billion yuan.

As of January 5, the dynamic P / E ratio of goldfish was 94.4 times, while the median price earnings ratio of food and beverage industry was only 46.78 times, while that of Haitian flavor industry was 88.7 times.

According to the public data, the total revenue of golden dragon fish in 2019 is 170.742 billion yuan, but the gross profit rate of the company is only 11.04%. In 2019, the net profit is 5.564 billion yuan, and the net interest rate is only 3.26%. In the first three quarters of 2020, although the golden dragon fish achieved 139.993 billion yuan of business income, its net profit was only 5.443 billion yuan, and the net interest rate was 3.89%.

In the same period, Haitian flavor industry realized an operating income of only 19.797 billion yuan in 2019, but its net profit was as high as 5.356 billion yuan, with a gross sales margin of 45% and a net sales profit rate of 27%. In the first three quarters of 2020, Haitian flavor industry realized an operating revenue of 17.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.26%, a net profit of 4.577 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.20%, a gross profit margin of 42.27% and a net profit rate of 27% 。

"Goldfish has formed a very influential brand effect and scale effect. From the perspective of the whole category combination, it is more perfect and comprehensive than Haitian. In the market, such as channels, it has the right to speak." China's food industry analyst Zhu danpeng pointed out.

In terms of market share, the market share of Jinlong fish's rice, flour and oil products ranks first in China. According to Nielsen's data, the company ranked first in the market share of small package edible vegetable oil, modern packaged flour channel and packaged rice modern channel. The company's market share in feed raw materials and oil technology industry ranks top.

According to the Research Report of Guojin securities, the market share of golden dragon fish in small package food oil, rice and flour in 2019 is 38.4%, 18.4% and 26.7%, ranking first in the market.

However, in the eyes of many market participants, there are still some defects in the profitability and growth of goldfish.

"The leading position of the golden dragon fish is indeed stable, but the price of grain and oil market is strictly controlled by the state. There is little room for raising the price of golden dragon fish, so it can only take the way of small profits and high sales. Moreover, there is no way to control the prices of raw materials, soybeans, rice, wheat, etc. in the upstream. And we can see that the A-share market (the most popular consumer leading enterprises), such as Guizhou Maotai and Haitian flavor, are enterprises with core pricing power, have voice in the industrial chain, and the return on net assets is more than 30%. From the perspective of profitability, Jinlong fish can not be compared. " On January 5, investors from a private equity firm in South China were interviewed.

In its view, the rise in the price of goldfish may be related to the general rise of consumer stocks at the end of the year. As the leader of food and beverage segmentation, the golden dragon can enjoy enough market premium, but the current valuation may appear bubble.

It is worth mentioning that as a newly listed new stock, the relatively small circulation is also one of the reasons for the rapid rise in the valuation of golden dragon fish in the short term.

According to public information, the total share capital of Jinlong fish is 5.422 billion shares, but the circulating shares are only 357 million, with a total of 43.522 billion yuan. The total share capital of Haitian flavor industry is 3.240 billion shares. Excluding the 1.888 billion shares held by Haitian Group for a long time, there are still 1.352 billion shares in circulation for a long time.

The organization's revival?

Despite the rising share price, it is worth noting that except for the first day of listing, golden dragon fish has never landed on the dragon and tiger list.

On October 15, 2020, the first day of the listing of goldfish soared by 117.90%. On that day, a number of institutional investors sold off the company's shares, while the receiving party was dominated by Sales Department seats.

In the dragon and tiger list data of that day, seats of the three major institutions were sold for 65.7086 million yuan, 50.0137 million yuan and 49.7953 million yuan respectively. Among them, Guotai Junan Securities bought 411 million yuan in Shanghai Jiangsu Road, CAITONG securities purchased 132 million yuan in Hangzhou Jiefang East Road, Huatai Securities bought 114 million yuan in Suzhou Renmin Road, and Dongfang Fortune Securities Lhasa Tuanjie road bought 101 million yuan.

However, in the second half of October 2020, the performance of the goldfish was rather flat, and it began to rise slowly in November. Then it entered consolidation in the second half of November, and entered the second round of rise in mid December.

During this period, the number of shareholders increased first, then decreased, and then increased slowly.

Wind data shows that at the beginning of October 15, 2020, the total number of shareholders of Jinlong fish was 305948, and the average number of tradable shares was 1166. However, the number of shareholders gradually declined. By December 10, 2020, the total number of shareholders of golden dragon fish decreased to 177634, and the average number of circulating shares increased to 2008 shares. However, in the second half of December, the number of shareholders of Jinlong fish increased slowly again until 2 As of December 31, 2020, the average number of shares held by the golden dragon fish household has increased to 195137, and the average number of shares held by the circulating stock households is 1828 shares.

As the latest situation of the shareholders has not been disclosed, it is impossible to determine which funds are buying the golden dragon fish. However, the 21st century economic reporter noted that since December 2020, the golden dragon fish has been frequently investigated by institutional investors.

From November to December 2020, a total of 166 institutional investors participated in the survey, including huitianfu fund, Bank of communications Schroeder, Kaiyuan securities, lanmo investment, Mingda asset, CEIBS, RONGTONG fund, Jinying fund, Qianhai Kaiyuan, lanto, Goldman Sachs and other domestic first-line public and private investment funds.

Among them, the rising price of tuna products and entering the seasoning industry are topics of considerable concern to institutional investors.

In November 2020, goldfish once said on the investor interaction platform that the prices of some products of the company had increased to a certain extent due to the recent rise in the price of raw materials.

"Usually, the company's product price will be adjusted to a certain extent according to the fluctuation of raw material price, but if we purchase the raw material well, we can postpone the increase of product price," said the relevant person in charge of golden dragon fish

"The price of end products is market adjusted price, not government guidance price," the official said. We have been operating in China for many years, and only in 2008 was affected by relatively serious inflation. The government intervened briefly on the price of edible oil industry. "

Kou Xin, food and beverage industry analyst of Huaxi Securities, pointed out that with the rapid development of catering channels and retail channels, the income of golden dragon fish kitchen food increased significantly. At the same time, with the gradual weakening of the impact of African swine fever, the company's feed raw material sales gradually recovered, so the company's overall revenue and profits maintained a good development.

And enter condiment move, let the market will be golden dragon fish benchmarking Haitian flavor industry.

As for entering the condiment industry, the person in charge disclosed: "the company will continue to develop new products, such as condiments and central kitchen." we think that the potential of the seasoning industry is great, and we also believe that we have certain advantages in developing the seasoning industry. Catering enterprises are the largest users of condiments, and families also use many condiments. In these two channels, the company has a good marketing network. At the same time, the company has the basic oil rice flour products, and the consumers who use oil rice noodles have the need to use condiments. Condiments can be promoted through the channels of oil rice noodles. "

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