Entering A New Period Of Production And Marketing Expansion, Guizhou Maotai Stock Price Climbed To 2059.45 Yuan!

Guizhou Maotai (600519. SH) production and marketing scale has reached the highest level in history.

Correspondingly, the new round of capacity expansion of Maotai in Guizhou has been gradually in place. In addition to the expansion of series liquor production, 18 liquor making plants of Maotai pilot production have been put into operation, and the annual production capacity of Maotai liquor will reach 56000 tons.

On January 4, the board of directors of Guizhou Maotai announced that after preliminary accounting, the company produced 50000 tons of Maotai base liquor last year, which is a new peak since Guizhou Maotai broke through 10000 tons in 2003 - entering the annual production scale of 50000 tons.

In addition to the estimated sales volume of 34500 tons of Maotai liquor (including 2000 tons overseas) at the beginning of the year, Guizhou Maotai has entered a new period of production and sales expansion since last year.

Although the company has not yet announced the production and marketing plan for this year's Maotai liquor, the capital market has been moved. On the first trading day after the new year's day, Maotai, Guizhou, broke through the 2000 yuan per share level for the first time. On the morning of January 5, Guizhou Maotai stock price appeared the highest price of 2059.45 yuan!

Capacity limit peak

In a short period of time, the peak capacity of Maotai liquor is 56000 tons.

It is Li Baofang, the former chairman of Maotai in Guizhou Province, who came to this conclusion. He once said at the annual general meeting of the company held in May 2019 that by 2020, Maotai liquor expansion project will be completed and put into operation, and Guizhou Maotai will form a capacity scale of 56000 tons of Maotai liquor.

Long Chaoya, executive vice president of Guizhou Brewing Industry Association, once sent a message to Li Baofang: "still expanding?"

"Maotai will not be expanded for a long time to come." Li Baofang made the first announcement at the shareholders' meeting in 2019. This is limited by the ecological environment carrying capacity of Chishui River Basin, which is suitable for liquor making.

In 2020, there will be a sudden epidemic. On February 13, 2020, Maotai in Guizhou will take the lead in the whole industry to return to work and production. Gao Weidong, the current chairman of Maotai in Guizhou, put forward that "the plan remains unchanged, the tasks are not reduced, the indicators are not adjusted, and the income is not reduced". By September 10, 18 plants of Maotai liquor making workshop 28, 29 and 30 will be put into trial production. After putting into operation, it is estimated that the actual additional capacity of Maotai liquor will be 5200 tons per year.

As the largest single investment project of Maotai Group, the "13th five year plan" Maotai liquor technical transformation project in China area was officially put into operation on October 17, 2020, and the capacity of 56000 tons of Maotai liquor was put into practice.

It is not easy to expand the production of Maotai liquor.

The annual production capacity of Maotai liquor was dozens of tons in the early stage of reform and opening-up, and it took 50 years for Maotai liquor to break through 10000 tons in 2003, and it took 17 years to produce 50000 tons from 10000 tons last year.

With the production capacity of 56000 tons of Maotai liquor realized, it can be predicted that the output of Maotai liquor will reach a higher level this year, reaching more than 50000 tons. So, what is the specific increase?

The 21st century economic reporter learned from the public annual report and announcement that in recent years, from 2016 to 2020, the production of Maotai Liquor Based liquor was 39000 tons, 42000 tons, 49671.69 tons, 499 thousand tons and 50000 tons, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.5%, 8.9%, 16%, 0.51% and 0.2% respectively.

According to the capacity of 56000 tons, this year, the output of Maotai base liquor increased by no more than 12% year on year.

Year on year sales growth

The sales volume of Maotai liquor increases with the increase of production every year. As we all know, Maotai liquor was sold five years ago. In other words, the sales volume of Maotai liquor this year depends on the output in 2016.

According to public information, from 2017 to 2020, the annual sales volume of Maotai liquor will be 26000 tons, 32000 tons, 34500 tons and 34500 tons (estimated at the beginning of the year). It can be calculated that the production and sales ratio of Maotai liquor is 1.61, 1.55, 1.44 and 1.45 in turn. Among the production and sales variables, the proportion of sales volume is increasing year by year. On the premise of limiting the release of 56000 tons of production capacity this year, 38600 tons of sales can be released to the maximum extent.

However, as of the time of the 21st century economic report's press release, Guizhou Maotai has not yet released its sales plan and revenue growth forecast this year.

In the announcement on January 4, Guizhou Maotai said it expected to achieve a total revenue of 97.7 billion yuan last year, an increase of about 10% over the same period last year. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will reach 45.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 10%.

If the annual sales volume calculated according to the capacity of 56000 tons is calculated as 500 ml 53 degree Feitian Maotai liquor with 969 ex factory price, the sales revenue of Maotai liquor in Guizhou will be close to 80 billion yuan this year; if the proportion of sales channels of supermarkets and e-commerce accounts for 12.5% of the sales revenue of Maotai liquor at the end of September last year and the ex factory price of 1299 yuan / bottle, the sales revenue of Maotai liquor this year will exceed 80 billion yuan. This has not yet added Maotai series liquor and Maotai liquor structure upgrading products.

Judging from the current supply-demand relationship of traditional offline dealers, supermarkets, self-employed stores and online e-commerce of Maotai liquor, the sales of Maotai liquor will continue to grow this year.

Performance growth forecast

On the morning of January 4, Maotai, Guizhou Province, broke through the 2000 yuan stock price mark, reaching 2004.99 yuan, with a market value of 2.51 trillion yuan. On January 5, liquor stocks continued to rise, with Guizhou Maotai rising by 3.13% and closing price at 2059.45 yuan, which was 2.1 times of the lowest price of Maotai affected by the epidemic on March 19 last year!

Lu Chang and Zhou Yuan, a researcher at Shenyin Wanguo, published the research report that Guizhou Maotai's channel network has been basically improved this year. In the future, the company will continue to optimize the channel and product structure, and develop cooperatively with distributors and direct sales on the premise that the total volume will maintain moderate growth. The control and anti risk ability of manufacturers on the terminal will be significantly enhanced.

In the view of the two researchers, Maotai occupies the price band of more than 1000 yuan, and its strong brand power and rich channel profits have built a solid moat, and the performance certainty is the strongest. In addition, the upward shift of consumer wealth structure constantly brings incremental demand, and the bottleneck of production capacity brings supply and demand tension, which can maintain stable growth of Maotai liquor in the long term.

Looking forward to this year, Shen Wan believes that although Guizhou Maotai has not raised the price directly, it still has a strong ability to promote the increase of ton price through the adjustment of product structure and channel structure. It is expected that the overall ton price increase of Maotai will be determined, and the sales volume growth will be superimposed. It is expected that the certainty of achieving double-digit growth in Maotai will be strong, and the "14th five year plan" is expected to start well.

However, the impact of economic downturn on the overall demand for high-end liquor is still the core hypothetical risk.

Gu Xiangjun, a researcher at Qunyi securities, analyzed that in the fourth quarter of last year, 4160 tons of Maotai liquor was put into the market, and the scope of direct sales channels was wide and the scale was slightly lower than the ambassador's approval price (it is still around 2800 yuan). However, due to the high direct supply price (1399 yuan / bottle), the volume and price of Maotai liquor rose in the fourth quarter. The main reason for the large volume of direct sales but not obvious performance is that there are more non operating expenses. The company's external donation expenditure is about 830 million yuan, which basically offsets the increase brought by the rising volume and price of Maotai liquor.

Qunyi securities forecasts that with the expansion of Maotai liquor production to 56000 tons, Guizhou Maotai's revenue growth rate this year is expected to reach 12% - 15%. At present, the direct sales channels maintain a large volume. At present, the payment by dealers in January has been completed, and a good start is expected.

In order to ease the tension between supply and demand, on December 31, last year, Guizhou Maotai liquor sales company held a "work meeting on strengthening sales during the new year's day and Spring Festival in 2021" which was held by the self-supporting system of Guizhou Maotai liquor sales company. At the special time node of new year's day and Spring Festival, it is necessary to increase the quantity of Maotai liquor, meet the demand of terminal consumers for liquor purchase as much as possible, and improve liquor purchasing experience and consumption satisfaction. However, the 21st century economic reporter noticed that the specific amount of self operated investment has not been released to the public.

"The fundamentals of China's long-term economic growth have not changed. The new development pattern has brought more consumer demand. The sauce wine market continues to be hot in the industry, and the market prospect is broad." Gao Weidong, chairman of Guizhou Maotai, is optimistic about the industry situation.

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