Behind Beijing People'S Car Lottery For Ten Years

In the wind, outside the Beijing used motor vehicle trading market, vehicles waiting for transfer have been lined up on the auxiliary road of the South Fourth Ring Road West, just like the "grand occasion" of queuing up to buy cars before the announcement of the lottery policy on December 23, 2010.

On December 31, 2020, on the eve of the implementation of the new deal of lottery for Beijing minibuses, the 21st century economic report came to the Beijing used motor vehicle trading market in Huaxiang.

Sporadic vehicles and pedestrians in and out of the gate have disappeared from the hustle and bustle of the previous few days.

"Do you sell cars?" At the gate of the trading market, a used car dealer asked for every passing car.

Behind him, a notice board reading "due to the upgrading of the vehicle transfer trading system in the market, the Beijing used car market will close the vehicle transfer trading system at 17:30 on December 30, 2020, suspend the vehicle transfer business from December 31, and resume the vehicle transfer business from January 4, 2021" on the roadside.

However, it is undeniable that behind the notice is a policy that has been implemented for ten years, affecting tens of thousands of people and even affecting the operation of Beijing, a mega city.

On December 7, 2020, at the time of the implementation of the lottery number policy of Beijing passenger cars, the Beijing Municipal Transportation Commission officially issued the implementation rules of the Interim Provisions on the number of passenger cars in Beijing and the Interim Regulations on the number of passenger cars in Beijing (revised in 2020), and the new policies will be implemented on January 1, 2021.

The biggest difference from the previous policy is that the new policy will promote the orderly withdrawal of the second or more passenger cars registered in the city. According to the Beijing Municipal Commission of transportation, the passenger car index is a limited social public resource, and the principle of "each person can retain at most one indicator" should be established.

Among them, "one person more vehicles" or "back door" can only choose one of the updated indicators, but the vehicle as personal property can be used until scrapped. At the same time, individuals who have more than one car under their name are allowed to apply online to transfer the surplus vehicles to their spouses, parents and children who meet the requirements.

More importantly, in order to crack down on the behavior of buying and selling Beijing minibus indicators through illegal behaviors such as "marriage transfer", starting from January 1, 2021, when handling the change registration of vehicles between husband and wife, and the transfer registration of divorce and property analysis vehicles, the conditions for the expiration of one year of marriage shall be met.

A stone stirs waves.

Second hand car dealers, the owners of many indicators waiting to be updated to "guarantee the standard", and those who bought the "fake marriage transfer" before the implementation of the policy quickly occupied the six major vehicle management offices in Beijing.

At 9:00 p.m. on December 15, 2020, a week after the new deal was issued, vehicles waiting for transfer outside the old motor vehicle trading market in Beijing have been lined up on the auxiliary road of the West Road of the South Fourth Ring Road in the cold wind, just like the "grand occasion" of queuing up to buy cars before the announcement of the lottery policy on December 23, 2010.

Ten years of lottery

Previously, in order to implement the overall urban planning of Beijing, realize the reasonable and orderly growth of the number of passenger cars, and effectively alleviate traffic congestion, the Interim Provisions on the number of passenger cars in Beijing were formulated. The regulations were deliberated and adopted at the 81st executive meeting of Beijing Municipal People's Government on December 22, 2010 and formally implemented on December 23, 2010.

"A week before the policy was announced, many people knew that there were no fewer people queuing up to buy cars and wait for the transfer of ownership. At that time, no one thought that the lottery would become more and more difficult, so those who got the first prize in the index made a profit." Laoliu, a second-hand car dealer who works in Huaxiang all the year round, told reporters, "but no one thought that ten years later, the policy changed direction."

On January 26, 2011, the first round of vehicle purchase lottery in Beijing, which was concerned by the public, was officially held. More than 210000 people submitted applications in that month, which was close to the total number of annual indicators. In that year, there were 240000 quota indicators for the total number of passenger cars, and 20000 indicators for the current month. Among them, more than 180000 individuals in the city competed for the 17600 individual vehicle indicators of that month.

According to this regulation, a car purchase index will be generated among 12 people.

In two years, the net increase of passenger cars in Beijing is 390000, less than half of that in 2010. The rapid growth momentum of motor vehicles has been effectively curbed, and the proportion of passenger car trips has decreased for two consecutive years.

With the increasing number of people applying for the index of passenger cars in Beijing in recent years, the number of ordinary indicators of passenger cars has decreased, the average lottery winning rate of lottery numbers has decreased, and the waiting time for new energy indicators has continued to increase.

The scarcity of Beijing brand resources has also formed a new "river and lake". Around the lottery policy, "license lease", "false marriage transfer", "litigation transfer" and other illegal access to indicators quietly rise.

In order to plug the loopholes, increase new energy indicators, and ease the pressure of "long-term uncertainty", Beijing Municipal Transportation Commission revised the implementation rules three times in 2011, 2013 and 2017, and revised the Interim Provisions on the number of small passenger cars in 2017.

It is undeniable that the good intention of adjusting the existing policies is to adjust the persistent malady of imbalance between supply and demand of Beijing's passenger car index, but the policy mending for several times has not changed the essence of lottery purchase. There are many factors that need to be considered comprehensively between the blueprint drawing and the final implementation of the policy, the good intention and the real solution.

In the latest index allocation in early October 2020, the winning rate has been reduced from 1:12 in the first round of lottery in 2011 to 1:3120.

In order to meet the travel needs of more citizens, the new policy has increased the index allocation method of "car less family" as the unit and the score ranking. On the basis of the draft regulation and control policy on the number of passenger cars in June 2020, the new deal adjusted the proportion of household new energy indicators and set a three-year transition period. In 2021, 60% of the number of new energy passenger cars will be allocated to "car less families".

"On the whole, the new deal has changed the rules for the allocation of indicators. In fact, the rules are being adjusted every year, and there is no change in the total amount. Therefore, the main solution is how to" cut the cake ". From now on, it will benefit the local car less families." Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information association, said in an interview with reporters.

In addition, on July 31, 2020, Beijing Municipal Transportation Commission issued the notice on the index allocation method for one-time issuance of new energy passenger cars, which airborne 20000 new energy passenger car indicators for "car free families".

"We didn't win the lottery in nine years, but finally we chose the new energy index for car less households." Xiao Qi, who lived in Beijing since childhood, shared her lottery experience with reporters. Compared with the oil brand that has not been shaken for a long time, owning a car for walking is "just needed".

Mr. Li, who is in the same situation as Xiao Qi, has always been "ambivalent" about new energy vehicles. He is not willing to participate in the family lottery. Instead, he chooses to rent an oil brand from a second-hand car dealer in Huaxiang at a cost of 20000 yuan a year, and firmly believes that he will win his own Beijing brand.

When the reporter talked with Mr. Li again about whether the implementation of the new deal would affect his leased license plate, he only left a sentence "there are policies at the top and Countermeasures at the bottom", then he kept silent and refused to say more.

Broker and "business"

"There are still more than 10 days left. There is still time to do so this year, and there will be a new policy next year." On December 15, 2020, Lao Liu, a used car dealer, said in a chat with reporters that "one year of marriage expiration" greatly increased the cost of "false marriage transfer".

"Fake marriage transfer" in laoliukou refers to that both parties of the transaction sign an agreement to transfer license plate or index in the name of husband and wife, and then divorce after completion. In the past ten years, the price of Jingpai has been rising all the way through "fake marriage transfer", and it has exceeded 100000 in the past two years. With the arrival of the new deal, a Beijing card even quoted a sky high price of 240000.

When talking about the "loopholes" in Beijing's lottery policy, Lao Liu undoubtedly has the most "voice".

In Lao Liu's business scope, he not only deals in the sale of second-hand cars, but also acts as a middleman for "Jing Pai leasing" and "false marriage transfer", acting as an agent for relevant transfer business while looking for sellers and buyers.

Similar to "out, Baoding, male, 56 with a car, can handle at any time" content often appears in Lao Liu's circle of friends, also become mutual "tacit" code.

With the announcement of the new deal on December 7 last year, Liu's related business has become increasingly busy and urgent.

"Buy a card, report household registration, age, male and female." In the face of a potential "customer" inquiry, Liu first asked the other party to provide relevant information. To successfully complete a "business", Lao Liu's charges ranged from 5000 to 6000 yuan.

The red banner of "no buying, selling and renting minibuses" is particularly eye-catching in Huaxiang Transfer Hall.

Although wandering in the gray area of policy, there are many "brokers" like Lao Liu in Huaxiang.

Some have even blatantly extended their "business" to the streets and alleys of Beijing.

At exit C of Wangjing east station on Beijing line 15, there is a red tricycle parking all year round. The small advertisements of "Beijing brand recycling, Beijing brand leasing and Beijing brand transfer" are pasted all over the body, and there are even used car dealers' personal wechat QR code and mobile phone number.

Since last year, in order to crack down on the illegal and criminal acts of buying and selling Beijing brand passenger cars by means of "marriage", the Beijing police, relying on the "safe operation", has organized more than 510 police forces from 16 sub bureaus under the leadership of the Criminal Investigation Corps to carry out centralized network collection operations. As of December 27 last year, Beijing's procuratorial organs have approved the arrest of 67 illegal suspects in accordance with the law. Among them, a criminal suspect has been divorced 17 times in two years for the purpose of buying and selling passenger cars; what's more, since 2018, he has divorced 28 times and changed 23 transfer vehicles.

However, due to the contradiction between Beijing's purchase restriction policy and the huge demand for private cars, in addition to "fake marriage transfer", the license plate rental business has gradually developed into a mature industrial chain.

"After reviewing the background and qualification of the lessors and lessees, we will arrange for the two parties to sign a tripartite agreement. After the signing of the agreement, both the lessor and the lessee will license the car and go to the vehicle management office for record. The so-called filing means that the lessor transfers the ownership of the vehicle purchased by the lessee in the form of mortgage. " When the reporter asked how to lease and license cars, how to clarify car property rights and divide responsibilities, Li Ke, the person in charge of a company providing license plate leasing business, said so.

"For example, the lessee buys a car for 200000 yuan. Due to the license plate, the car must be registered in the name of the lessor. After that, the lessor borrows 200000 yuan from the lessee in the form of vehicle mortgage and records it in the vehicle management office. After filing, the right to use and handle the vehicle will be transferred to the name of the lessee, and there will be a mark on the third page of the vehicle registration certificate (big green version), showing the name and ID card number of the lessee. During the lease term, even if the lessor owes money outside, it will not affect the use of the vehicle by the lessee. " Li can further explain.

When asked whether the behavior met the regulations, Li Ke said: "the company is legal, and the way to go to the vehicle administration office for filing is also legal, but strictly speaking, this kind of thing can be understood as a grey area of policy from the legal point of view or from the perspective of Beijing Transportation Committee."

However, Article 31 of the detailed rules for the implementation of the Interim Provisions on the number of passenger cars in Beijing (revised in 2017) issued on January 9, 2018, clearly stipulates that the notification of passenger car index confirmation is only for the use of the indicator owner.

Among them, for the suspected release of sales, disguised sales, leasing or leasing, lending or borrowing indicators and other related information, the indicator management organization will suspend the investigation on the passenger car index regulation and management information system account of relevant actors for three months. If the public security, judicial organs and index management institutions confirm the behaviors of buying, selling in disguised form, renting or renting, lending or borrowing the passenger car indicator confirmation notice, the index management agency shall announce the index to be invalid; if the indicator has been used to complete vehicle registration, the traffic management department of the public security organ shall cancel the motor vehicle registration according to law, and the index shall be invalid. At the same time, the indicator application submitted by the applicant will not be accepted within three years.

"If there is a policy on the top, there must be countermeasures below." Ten days after the implementation of the new deal, the army of second-hand car dealers is still doing the business of license plate mortgage and lease in the circle of friends.

"Competition" between stock and increment

In fact, in the view of the industry, behind the gray trading of passenger car indicators is a microcosm of the increasingly unbalanced supply and demand of passenger car indicators since the implementation of the car purchase lottery policy in Beijing. The fundamental problem behind it is the increasingly serious traffic congestion in the city after the car ownership has increased linearly.

In order to control the traffic congestion in Beijing, the Interim Regulation on the number of passenger cars in Beijing was implemented on December 23, 2010. Beijing has also become the first city in China to draw numbers to buy minibuses.

On January 8, 2021, the traffic administration bureau of the Ministry of public security released the national motor vehicle and driver data in 2020. In 2020, the national car ownership reached 281 million, of which Beijing ranked first with 6.032 million.

According to the annual report of Beijing Traffic Development released by Beijing Transportation Development Research Institute, the traffic congestion coefficient in Beijing has dropped from 6.14 in 2010 to 5.48 in 2019, which belongs to "mild congestion".

Under the policy of purchasing restriction, Beijing's "blocking" seems to be effective. However, under the policy, disputes continue.

For the automobile industry, the automobile purchase restriction also limits the automobile consumption. Especially for China's auto market, which has declined overall since 2018.

Therefore, it has become the voice of the automobile industry to relax the restrictions on purchase and promote consumption.

Huaxi Securities predicts that at present, the accumulated demand of China's limited purchase cities is more than 8 million. If it is gradually digested in five years, it is estimated that it will contribute about 1.6 million vehicles to the market every year and contribute about 6% elasticity to the growth rate of the automobile industry. If the purchase restriction policy is gradually liberalized, the automobile market will usher in greater development space under the real demand.

Since 2019, in order to stabilize automobile consumption, relevant ministries and commissions have repeatedly mentioned the relaxation of automobile purchase restriction in the policy.

In January 2019, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of transport and other 10 ministries and commissions jointly issued the implementation plan for further optimizing supply, promoting steady growth of consumption and promoting the formation of a strong domestic market (2019), which proposed "optimizing the management measures of motor vehicle purchase restriction" to promote automobile consumption.

In June 2019, the national development and Reform Commission issued the implementation plan for promoting the renewal and upgrading of key consumer goods and unimpeded resource recycling (2019-2020). It is proposed that local governments that have implemented car purchase restriction should accelerate the shift from restricted purchase to guided use, and local governments shall not impose restrictions on New energy vehicles, and those already implemented shall be cancelled.

In fact, there have been tentative moves in many places to relax the restrictions on car purchase. For example, Guangzhou and Hangzhou have recently increased tens of thousands of car purchase indicators. In addition to increasing the purchase index, Shenzhen has also relaxed the restrictions on vehicle purchasing qualifications. Guiyang city is the biggest and most thorough way to relax the restrictions on car purchase. On September 12, 2019, Guiyang municipal government announced that it would cancel the lottery policy for car purchase, becoming the first city in China to completely cancel the purchase restriction policy.

However, how to further stimulate consumers' enthusiasm for automobile consumption and let local governments solve the congestion problem caused by the increase of license plates is also a problem that must be faced after the implementation of future policies.

"Restricting the purchase and transportation of automobiles is not a long-term solution to traffic problems." An industry expert familiar with the policy told reporters that international experience shows that to deal with traffic congestion, we need to take measures including vigorously developing rail transit, optimizing urban structure, improving the level of traffic management and infrastructure construction, implementing automobile consumption policies that encourage purchase, guide and economize on use, and implement regional vehicle restrictions (such as setting up low emission zones), etc Engineering.

"It is not in line with the spirit of the central government to restrict the purchase of automobiles as the main means of regulating and controlling automobile consumption. If this practice is continued during the period of the 14th five year plan, it is not in line with the spirit of the central government." The experts said.

It is understood that this year's "fourteenth five year plan" proposes to promote the transformation of automobile and other consumer goods from purchase management to use management. Some industry experts believe that this "change" means that the foothold of future automobile policy will be more emphasis on the use orientation, and some restrictions on purchase will be relaxed.

At the same time, on October 19, 2020, the national development and Reform Commission held a regular press conference, and spokesman Meng Wei also said: "the next step will be to promote the continuous growth of the consumption of bulk commodities and services, promote the transformation and upgrading of automobile consumption, promote the transformation of automobile purchase restriction to guided use, and encourage local governments to introduce policies to promote the replacement of old cars."

In the view of the experts mentioned above, it is not a long-term plan to implement the purchase management of passenger cars. As a government administrator, it is necessary to speed up the "make-up lesson" while restricting the purchase, learn from the international advanced experience, improve the urban infrastructure and optimize the urban management level; at the same time, use tax policies and other means to gradually guide the transformation of automobile and other consumer goods from purchase management to use management.

What is noteworthy is that the Beijing Transport Commission also said that the relevant departments will further study and demonstrate the implementation of the urban master plan for policy suggestions such as congestion charges and suburban license plates which are highly demanded.

"In terms of technology and management means, there is no difficulty in improving the traffic environment by imposing congestion charges, but the key is how to change consumers' mentality, which requires an adaptive process." Cui Dongshu said.

"Due to the upgrading of the vehicle transfer trading system in the market, the Beijing used car market will close the vehicle transfer trading system at 17:30 on December 30, 2020, suspend the vehicle transfer business from December 31, and resume the vehicle transfer business from January 4, 2021." On December 28th of last year, a system update notice ended Lao Liu's work the day before the new year.

"Husband and wife change the last two days, time is limited, before the 30th submitted before the change can be completed." Lao Liu updated this "important notice" in his circle of friends.

On the afternoon of December 31 last year, the hustle and bustle of Huaxiang Transfer Hall had entered the new year's holiday ahead of schedule. There was no one in the hall, and only a few staff were on duty.

"The agent has been removed yesterday. Come back after the new year." At the entrance of the first floor, a security guard told reporters.

Second hand car dealer Lao Liu's circle of friends also returned to calm.

On January 4, Lao Liu issued a warm reminder on Beijing's new round of tail number restrictions.

"I don't want to work in Beijing. Before the two sessions of the NPC and CPPCC last year, I heard the wind of the new deal of lottery. Many colleagues have already begun to deal with the redundant Beijing cards and evacuate to the cities around Beijing." Liu told reporters.

The past content of Laoliu's circle of friends has become the memory and miniature of thousands of second-hand car dealers in Beijing for ten years.

(at the request of the interviewees, Lao Liu, Xiao Qi, Mr. Li Ke and Da Jun are pseudonyms.)

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