In 2020, China'S Express Business Volume Will Exceed 80 Billion Pieces For The First Time, Or Reach A New High In The New Year

On January 13, before dawn, Zhang Yang got up from his warm quilt. It's 6 o'clock in the morning in Wuhan. Zhang Yang is a staff member of a express delivery station in Shunfeng, Wuhan. In the last five months, he has been up nearly an hour earlier than usual in order to complete the delivery task.

"2020 is obviously busier than ever, and business is definitely more than in 2019. In 2019, I go to work at 7:00 a.m. and leave work at 9:00 p.m. From September 2020 to now, I go to work at 6:20 in the morning, and I have to work overtime until three or four in the morning Zhang Yang frankly said that with the coming of the new year, the prevention and control of the epidemic situation is becoming more and more serious, and this busy life may come to an end in a short time.

According to the real-time monitoring of China Express big data platform of the State Post Office, on the morning of December 21, 2020, an express package sent from Huanggang, Hubei Province to Changsha, Hunan Province, was lucky to become the 80 billion express delivery in 2020, and this is the first time that the number of Express delivery items in China has exceeded 80 billion.

In fact, after the epidemic, the express industry has gradually entered a high growth range. In the whole year of 2020, SF will continue to increase its investment in e-commerce express delivery, and e-commerce logistics such as Jingdong Logistics and rookie wrapping have also joined the competition, bringing great competition pressure to other express delivery enterprises. In 2021, the development of China's express industry will still show steady growth and structural growth.

A few days ago, the State Post Office announced that it is estimated that China's express delivery business volume and business income will reach 83 billion pieces and 875 billion yuan respectively in 2020, with a year-on-year growth of 30.8% and 16.7% respectively, creating more than 200000 social jobs and supporting more than 10 trillion yuan of Online retail sales.

According to the State Post Office, the total business volume and business income of China's postal industry will reach 2.1 trillion yuan and 1.1 trillion yuan respectively in 2020, with a year-on-year growth of 29.4% and 14.1% respectively, and the ratio of business income to GDP exceeds 1%. In addition, the State Post Office also predicts that in 2021, China's postal (express) business volume will complete 121.9 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of about 12%; the business income of the whole industry will reach 1.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of about 11%. Among them, the volume of express delivery business completed 95.5 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of about 15%; and the business income reached 980 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of about 12%.

Twist negative to positive

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the express industry has become one of the first industries to recover, and the single volume of express delivery has reached a record high.

From 1.202 billion pieces in 2007 to 63.52 billion pieces in 2019, and then to 80 billion pieces today, the total increase is 66 times. On the one hand, such a huge amount of express delivery reflects China's strong consumption capacity, on the other hand, it also reflects the "acceleration" of the reform of express enterprises.

Cheng Yimin, chief analyst of China Post securities, pointed out in his research report: "although the development of express delivery industry will be disturbed by the epidemic in 2020, with the rapid recovery of domestic economy and the outbreak of new online shopping modes such as live delivery and delivery, the express delivery industry has developed rapidly in the last three quarters. However, with the expansion of scale and the intensification of competition, the average price of each piece has been declining, and there is no turning point at present, which puts forward higher requirements for the management ability and cost control of express enterprises. "

Hubei, as the province most seriously affected by the epidemic situation, is also the province with the greatest impact on the express industry. In April 2020, after the resumption of production, the express business volume of Hubei Province completed 127 million pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 0.70%, and the business income completed 1.402 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.79%, realizing the first month-on-year positive growth since 2020.

According to the latest statistics of Hubei provincial post administration, from January to October 2020, the total number of express delivery services in Hubei Province has reached 1.32 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 0.59%. This is the first time since 2020 that the cumulative growth rate of express delivery business in Hubei Province has turned negative to positive. In October, the express business volume of the whole province reached 190 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of 28%; the business income reached 1.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.88%.

At the same time, last year's double 11 has also made a great contribution to Hubei express. According to the report on China Express development index in November 2020 disclosed by the State Post Office, the express development scale index was 374.7, up 33.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 13.2% higher than that in 2019. In 2020, the average daily express handling capacity is expected to reach 330 million pieces, with the highest daily processing capacity of 675 million pieces. In 2019, the two values are 240 million pieces and 535 million pieces respectively.

Zhang Yang also made it clear that "in the past year, the average number of tickets entering the station may be 2000 per day, and in 2020, the average number of tickets will be more than 3000. On double 11 and 12, I have to work overtime into the early morning almost every day. "

This prosperous scene is also confirmed in the business data of major logistics companies in the last quarter of 2020.

Among them, the growth rate of Yunda and Shunfeng was relatively fast, and almost all maintained a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50% from September to November. From September to November 2020, the business volume of Yunda express reached 1.463 billion, 1.417 billion and 1.582 billion, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 64.94%, 63.82% and 42.91%. The business volume of SF holdings was 728 million, 689 million and 906 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 60.35%, 57.31% and 59.51%.

A new high

After the epidemic, in order to ease the financial pressure and liquidity difficulties of enterprises, the central government issued a package of policies to support the economic revitalization of Hubei Province after the epidemic. Hubei Province also launched a combination of burden reduction, cost reduction and relief. More than 20 financial policy documents were formulated and issued to promote the economic and social recovery and development.

In the first three quarters of 2020, Hubei Province's postal and express enterprises have reduced taxes and fees by 287 million yuan. On this basis, e-commerce with goods, stars with goods and other activities to promote the upsurge of online shopping, e-commerce industry ushered in a new leap, but also made the express market to obtain a new scale expansion.

"Under the influence of the epidemic in 2020, the express delivery industry will still be able to break through a new high of 80 billion yuan, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic on the change of people's consumption patterns, as well as the acceleration of the online and offline integration development of China's consumer market," said a researcher at a securities firm in Central China's transportation industry

Xiao Yi, an analyst at Dongfang securities, also pointed out in his research report: "in the current period, the demand is changing from the transportation of traditional commercial goods to the online demand of high-quality consumption. From the perspective of subdivided categories, the growth rate of documents has slowed down due to the impact of electronization, and high-end e-commerce products benefit from the trend of high-quality online consumption, and the growth is accelerated. "

At the same time, in the last year, express delivery to the countryside, factory, and sea also achieved certain results, which is an important reason for the rapid development of the express industry in 2020.

According to the public data, in the first 11 months of 2020, more than 1.7 trillion yuan of industrial products and agricultural products have been sent to cities. Many governments have also given large policy subsidies to "express delivery to villages and rural areas". Not only that, "agricultural products go up, industrial products go down" also further enhance the penetration of e-commerce in the sinking market.

The rapid recovery of express delivery industry reflects the good momentum of China's economic recovery and strong consumption capacity.

According to the first three quarters economic data released by Hubei Statistics Bureau, the economy of Hubei will gradually recover in the first three quarters of 2020. In the first three quarters, the total GDP of the province was close to 90% in the same period of last year, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, and the decline rate was narrowed by 8.9 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. The recovery of production and supply was accelerated. Agricultural production basically recovered, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.0% and a decrease of 6.6 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. Industrial operation recovered to nearly 90% in the same period of last year, with a decrease of 9.5% compared with the first half of the year. Domestic demand rebounded steadily. In the first three quarters, investment in fixed assets decreased by 33.9%, a decrease of 22.3 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. Social zero decreased by 27.4%, 6.7 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year.

"The recovery of express delivery industry is not only a good thing for us, but also shows that the economic operation of the whole country has gradually returned to normal, and the economy of Hubei Province, as the disaster area of the epidemic, is also full of vitality. According to this trend of development, as long as we spend the Spring Festival smoothly, we will not worry about our business this year. " Zhang Yang is also full of hope for 2021.

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