Interpretation: China'S Purchasing Manager Index Remained In The Expansion Range In January

On January 31, 2021, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing manager index. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe has carried on the interpretation.

Recently, a series of local clustering epidemics have occurred in many places in China, and the production and operation of some enterprises have been temporarily affected. Various departments in various regions have actively responded, conducted scientific prevention and control, and implemented precise policies, and continued to coordinate the epidemic prevention and control as well as economic and social development, and the overall business prosperity continued to remain in the expansion range. In January, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Manager index, non manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 51.3%, 52.4% and 52.8%, respectively, down 0.6%, 3.3 and 2.3 percentage points compared with the previous month, and all remained above the boom and bust line.

1. The purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry decreased slightly

In January, the PMI of the manufacturing industry fell to 51.3%, but it was in the range of 51.0% and above for seven consecutive months. Before and after the Spring Festival is the traditional off-season of China's manufacturing industry. In addition, the recent local clustering epidemic has a certain impact on the production and operation of some enterprises, and the overall expansion momentum of the manufacturing industry has slowed down. Main features of the month:

First, the overall prosperity of large and medium-sized enterprises is stable, and that of small enterprises is picking up. The PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises were 52.1% and 51.4% respectively, which were lower than 0.6% and 1.3% of the previous month, but both were in the boom zone. The PMI of large enterprises was at 52.0% and above for 8 consecutive months, which played an important role in supporting the steady recovery of the manufacturing industry. The PMI of small enterprises was 49.4%, which was 0.6% higher than that of the previous month, but it remained below the critical point and the business climate was still weak.

Second, the expansion of both sides of production and demand was weaker than last month. The production index and new order index were 53.5% and 52.3% respectively, down 0.7% and 1.3% compared with the previous month, and remained in the expansion range. From the perspective of industry situation, the production index and new order index of agricultural and sideline food processing, nonferrous metal smelting and calendering processing, computer communication electronic equipment and instruments and meters are all higher than 56.0%, and the industry growth is fast; the two indexes of textile, chemical raw materials and chemical products industries are all below the critical point, and the production and demand have declined. From the regional situation, Hebei, Jilin, Heilongjiang and other places were more affected by the epidemic this month, and some enterprises surveyed reported that production, procurement, transportation and other activities were facing some difficulties in the near future.

Third, the import and export scenery has declined. Foreign trade orders of some enterprises decreased due to the concentrated release of overseas demand and the continuous spread of global epidemic in the early Christmas season. The index of new export orders and import index of this month were 50.2% and 49.8%, respectively, lower than 1.1% and 0.6% of the previous month. Although the overall level of import and export prosperity of the manufacturing industry has declined, the new export order index and import index of agricultural and non-staple food processing, computer communication electronic equipment, instruments and meters and other industries are all above 51.0%, reflecting that the foreign trade business of these industries has increased compared with last month.

Fourth, the price index continued to run at a high level. The purchasing price index and ex factory price index of the main raw materials were 67.1% and 57.2%, respectively, which were lower than 0.9% and 1.7% of the previous month, but remained at a higher level. From the industry situation, the two price indexes of upstream industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing, petroleum processing, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing are all higher than 70.0%, indicating that the purchase price of raw materials and the sales price of products in related industries have increased significantly.

Fifthly, the holiday effect drives the recovery of consumer goods industry. The PMI of consumer goods industry was 52.3%, 1.8 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and the industry growth accelerated. From the perspective of production and demand, the production index and new order index of consumer goods industry are higher than that of manufacturing industry as a whole, 54.1% and 55.2% respectively, up 1.5% and 4.3% compared with the previous month. It shows that with the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the market demand of consumer goods industry closely related to residents' consumption is released obviously, and the production activities of enterprises are more active.

The survey results also show that both the employee index and the supplier delivery time index have dropped significantly this month. Some enterprises surveyed reported that the epidemic affected the normal arrival of employees, and some employees returned home in advance, resulting in an increase in the employment gap of enterprises; at the same time, the logistics in some regions slowed down, and some enterprises' export of products and purchase of raw materials were affected.

2. The index of non manufacturing business activities fell

In January, the non manufacturing business activity index was 52.4%, lower than 3.3% of the previous month, and the recovery of non manufacturing industry slowed down.

The outlook of the service industry has declined. Affected by the local clustering epidemic and other factors, the business activity index of the service industry was 3.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, which was 51.1%. Although the service industry still maintained the recovery trend, the prosperity level dropped. The business activity index of producer service industry and life service industry in this month were 56.2% and 49.1%, respectively, lower than 2.0% and 6.3% of the previous month. The producer service industry still maintained a high prosperity level, while the domestic service industry fell back to the contraction range. In terms of industry categories, the business activity index of Telecom, radio and television satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, capital market services and other industries has been in the high boom range of more than 60.0% for three consecutive months, and the total business volume has continued to grow rapidly. The survey results show that the business activity index of contact and aggregation consumer industries such as accommodation, catering, culture, sports and entertainment, residents' service, etc. dropped significantly this month, all of which were in the contraction range. In addition, the recent slowdown in logistics in some regions, coupled with the reduction of business and resident travel, has reduced the business activity index of road transportation, air transportation and other industries below the critical point, and the industry activity has declined. From the perspective of market demand, the index of new orders was 48.3%, lower than 2.9 percentage points of the previous month, and the market demand of service industry was weakened. From the perspective of price index, the input price index was 53.5%, 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and the pressure on operating costs of service enterprises increased.

The high level of construction industry fell. Affected by the low temperature weather in winter and the approaching of Spring Festival holidays, the construction industry entered the construction off-season. The business activity index and new order index were 60.0% and 51.2%, respectively, lower than 0.7% and 4.6% of the previous month. The expansion of production activities and market demand in the construction industry slowed down. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of business activities was 53.6%, lower than 9.9 percentage points of the previous month. The proportion of enterprises that think business activities will decrease in the next three months will rise.

Third, the expansion of comprehensive PMI output index slowed down

In January, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.8%, lower than 2.3% of the previous month, indicating that the production and operation activities of China's enterprises have been expanding in general, but the expansion has been weakened. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index which constitute the composite PMI output index are 53.5% and 52.4% respectively.