Price Change Of Yarn Cotton During The Spring Festival In 2021 And Forecast Of Its Trend After The Spring Festival

Introduction: before and after the Spring Festival, the strong rise of American cotton led to the domestic cotton market, and the cotton quotation rose significantly, with an increase of 2.22%. Under the condition of normal resumption of work and production in the downstream, cotton will still maintain a strong trend in the near future.

The first part: comparative analysis of prices before and after the Spring Festival

Before and after the Spring Festival in 2021, cotton prices show a strong rise, which is the third wave of obvious rise after the cotton listing in 2020 / 21. As of February 18, cotton prices rose 350 yuan / ton, or 2.22%, compared with before the Spring Festival (February 10). From the comparison of price trends in recent three years, it is obvious that the price has reached the highest position after the Spring Festival in 2021.

Since February 8, ice American cotton has been on the rise, and it is relatively strong. Zheng cotton also showed a more obvious upward trend in the last three trading days before the Spring Festival. It can be seen that during the Spring Festival, the domestic market was closed, and the rise of American cotton continued, with the highest intraday hit of 90.42 cents, rising to a two-and-a-half year high.

Table: Price changes of domestic cotton, cotton yarn and related competitive products before and after the Spring Festival

It can be seen from the table that the prices of cotton and related products are all "on the first day of the market opening". However, for cotton, on the first day of the market opening, most of the quotations were made, and there was no actual transaction. Therefore, it was more the performance of the attitude of the industry for supporting the price. Viscose and polyester staple fiber at the same time strong, for cotton to bring a boost.

The second part: the main factors affecting the price fluctuation

First, in the latest monthly supply and demand report released by the U.S. Department of agriculture before the Spring Festival, it continued to reduce the global ending inventory from 96.32 million bales in January to 95.74 million bales, with a reduction of 580000 bales, benefiting the cotton market.

Second, the U.S. cotton export increase and weekly export data are good for the U.S. cotton market, and the rise of American cotton has an obvious boosting effect on the domestic market.

Third, the newly announced cotton planting area of the United States in 2020 / 21 is estimated to be 12.09 million mu, which is also good for reducing 1.65 million acres compared with that in 2019 / 20.

Fourth, a series of economic stimulus measures in the United States have given the market a certain degree of confidence, which is conducive to the macro product market.

Fifthly, the panic of Xinguan epidemic was weakened, the domestic domestic cases were effectively controlled, and the downstream enterprises returned to work and production after the Spring Festival, which had an obvious supporting effect on cotton demand. According to the latest downstream start-up survey data of Longzhong, as of February 18, the average operating rate of enterprises in the main production areas of pure cotton yarn was 60.89%, 19.62 percentage points higher than that before the festival. It is expected that the overall operating rate of pure cotton yarn industry may recover to above 70% level this week.

Sixth, the number of good quality cotton in China has decreased, the sales basis of middlemen is high, and the processing allowance of seed cotton in the mainland is about 15%. Therefore, the attitude of manufacturers to support the price is obvious, and the majority of them report high prices.

The third part: forecast the market price trend after the festival

In the near future, Longzhong believes that cotton prices will remain strong trend. With the gradual resumption of downstream enterprises, cotton demand will bring support. In addition, the macro inflation expectation and the possibility of lower cotton planting expectation in the later new year are all favorable to release. However, it is also necessary to follow up the order duration of downstream yarn enterprises, and cotton storage enterprises can choose to sell cotton by machine.