Liquor Stocks After Plummeting: "Flash Collapse" Temporarily Stops Short-Term Recovery Performance Differentiation Public Offering Has Been Adjusted To Avoid Risks

After the festival for many consecutive days of steep decline in liquor plate, now stop falling signs.

On March 1, the liquor index finally closed up 0.30% after one-day shock, but the liquor plate was still in differentiation.

In the field of high-end liquor, Guizhou Maotai's stock price rebounded slightly after the market value of 600 billion yuan evaporated in seven days. As of the closing, Wuliangye was up 1.66%, Wuliangye was the strongest, with an increase of 3.22%. Luzhou Laojiao had several shocks after opening more than 3%, and it was green for many times in the session, but it still closed up 1.33% in the end.

Looking at the second and third tier liquor companies, they fell more than rose. Shanxi Fenjiu, Jiugui Liquor, Jinshiyuan and Yanghe shares fell slightly by 0.82%, 0.14%, 0.85% and 0.96% respectively, while gujinggong liquor and Kouzijiao fell 3.08% and 1.15% respectively.

In the view of industry insiders, from a long-term point of view, the competition pattern of liquor plate remains unchanged, leading companies have stronger ability to cope with the crisis and industry competition, and the market aggregation effect is gradually enhanced. However, the secondary high-end and middle end liquor with greater flexibility may usher in the turning point of performance and gradually differentiate.

With the gradual differentiation of liquor industry, the 21st century economic reporter has paid attention to that many public offering institutions that had previously held heavy positions in liquor stocks may have already prepared for warehouse adjustment.

Short term recovery of liquor stocks

On March 1, the leading liquor stocks which fell sharply earlier showed signs of stopping falling.

Last Saturday, Guizhou daily published the report on the implementation of Guizhou's 2020 national economic and social development plan and the draft of the 2021 national economic and social development plan, which revealed that Maotai Group's operating income and total profit increased by 13.7% and 18.2% respectively in 2020. According to this calculation, the total revenue and profit of Maotai Group in 2020 will reach 114.05 billion yuan and 74.48 billion yuan respectively, Achieve business objectives beyond expectations.

On the same day, the development and Reform Commission of Guizhou Province published the contents of the fourteenth five year plan for national economic and social development of Guizhou Province and the outline of long-term goals for the year 2035 on its official website. The outline puts forward the goal of "by 2025, the output value of liquor industry will reach 600 thousand liters, the output value of liquor industry will reach 250 billion yuan, and the output value of high-quality tobacco and wine industry will reach 300 billion yuan".

These two news let Guizhou Maotai stock price rebound for several days, and led the liquor plate to end the "flash collapse" situation.

Before that, in the seven trading days just after the festival, from February 18 to February 26, Guizhou Maotai fell by 17.98% and its market value evaporated by more than 600 billion yuan; Wuliangye fell by 18.28% and its market value evaporated by 243.1 billion yuan; Luzhou Laojiao fell by 25.09% and its market value evaporated by 115.4 billion yuan; Shanxi Fen Liquor fell by 29.41% and its market value evaporated by 113.682 billion yuan.

However, during the Spring Festival, the fundamentals of liquor plate did not change, not only good performance, but also good sales data during the Spring Festival. Zhang Hui, fund manager of China Southern Fund, said bluntly: "in the short term, according to our tracking, the Spring Festival demand of high-end liquor and second-line brand liquor is better than we expected."

On the performance level, in addition to Guizhou Maotai, other liquor companies have also issued performance forecasts, but the internal division has been seen.

Among them, Wuliangye is expected to have a revenue of 57.2 billion yuan and a net profit of 19.9 billion yuan in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of about 14%; the net profit of Luzhou Laojiao is about 5.5 billion yuan to 6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20% to 30%; Yanghe shares' performance is unsatisfactory, with a revenue of 21.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.65%, and a net profit of 7.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.27%; the revenue of Shanxi Fenjiu is expected to increase by 1.9-2.2 billion yuan in 2020, The net profit is expected to increase by 900 million yuan to 1.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42% to 56%.

In the eyes of industry insiders, the sharp drop in liquor sector is mainly due to the high valuation and low cost performance of the liquor sector. After the big rise in 2020, liquor stocks have become loose.

"Before the Spring Festival, the liquor sector reached a new high under the catalysis of price increase news and strong dynamic sales, but after the festival, the high valuation superimposed catalysis disappeared, and the stock price was no longer sustainable." Huachuang securities food and beverage researcher Shen Hao pointed out.

However, Shen Hao also said that the recent sharp drop in the liquor sector belongs to capital level behavior. According to previous experience, the plate's callback rate is about 20%. However, with the vigorous sales in the Spring Festival, the performance of the first and second tier liquor companies has solid support, and the more it falls, the more it is worth buying. "We expect that the catalyst for the subsequent stock price to hit the bottom and rise will wait until the quarterly performance period, but considering the overall valuation is not low, this year's main In order to make a profit, the future expected yield needs to be lowered. ".

In fact, although the leading liquor companies showed a rising trend on March 1, the 21st century economic report reporter learned that the recovery of the liquor sector is still not optimistic in the short term.

(how long it will be adjusted) it is still unclear, but we feel that the current adjustment should not be in place, and it may fluctuate for a period of time. " A public fund researcher in Shanghai pointed out in an interview.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, also said: "today's rebound does not necessarily mean that the adjustment has ended, and there may be repeated shocks in the future market, but the stage of rapid decline and concentrated release of investor panic has ended."

Tan Changgui, chief investment officer of Shenzhen Longhong Investment Management Co., Ltd., also believes: "from the basic point of view, liquor performance will definitely go up steadily. The production capacity of high-end Maotai liquor is limited, and it is in a monopoly position. It is a scarce resource and there is no need to worry about selling. However, the trend process needs to constantly change hands to wash off the" floating water ". Some investors are very normal to cash out on the way. Now the valuation is a little high, there may be investors in the process of callback to change positions. "

Signs of cash exchange

It is worth mentioning that the 21st century economic reporter found from the fund trend of some liquor companies after the spring festival that, on the whole, the funds with heavy positions in liquor stocks fell sharply after the Spring Festival, but there are still funds whose trend is better than the third party's estimation, or because some institutions adjust their positions in advance before and after the Spring Festival.

Wind data shows that up to now, more than 630 active equity funds have been explicitly mentioned as "wine industry theme fund" in the theme product types, but after the Spring Festival, not all of the above funds have been affected by the "group extinction" of group stocks.

Reporter statistics found that in the major adjustment of liquor plate after the Spring Festival, 28 liquor themed public funds fell by no more than 6%, and one liquor themed fund realized positive returns.

Such a net deviation, in the eyes of investors, or because these funds "ahead of time" before the crash prepared.

As a "wine industry theme fund", Guizhou Maotai, Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye ranked first, sixth and eighth among the top ten heavy positions by 2020. However, the reporter noted that the net value of recovered units of the fund still increased by 0.06% in the trading days since the Spring Festival (February 18 to March 1) In the past week, its net worth increased slightly by 0.23%, surpassing the average increase of - 6.22% in similar funds.

Guangfa's innovation drive was closely followed by its heavy positions in liquor and other consumer sectors in the past year. By the end of 2020, among the top 10 heavy positions of the fund, Guizhou Maotai, Midea Group, Wuliangye, Changchun hi tech and Gree Electric Appliance Co., Ltd. ranked the first, second, fourth, fifth and seventh heavyweights respectively, and these stocks had experienced a sharp fall after the Spring Festival.

However, since February 18, the net value of the composite unit of the fund has only fallen by 1.46%, and in the past week, its net value has only fallen by 1.18%, better than the average increase of - 6.22% in the same category.

"As a matter of fact, we can see from the performance of the four seasons report of public funds that the public funds have already reduced their positions in the Baijiu sector, but there is" opposition "in operation, so it is difficult for public investors to detect Tan Changgui said.

According to wind data, in the fourth quarter of 2020, the number of institutional shares of core assets such as Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, Midea Group, Ningde times, China immune, Longji shares, Luzhou Laojiao and other core assets decreased by 907 million shares, 2497 million shares, 3730 million shares, 536 million shares, 1295 million shares, 527 million shares and 824 million shares in the fourth quarter of 2020.

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