The Most "Hurt" In Polyester Industry Chain

Affected by this week's OPEC + meeting, which is expected to increase production by 1.6 million barrels / day from April, the external crude oil fell sharply. Today, all kinds of polyester chain on the futures plate went to the street. Among them, ethylene glycol fell more than 6% after reaching a new high, and staple fiber fell below 8000 yuan / ton for three consecutive days, down nearly 4% within the day. PTA even closed the price limit and finally closed at 4574 yuan / ton.

Zhu Lihang, an analyst of Zheshang futures, told the futures daily in an interview that the decline of PTA price is due to two aspects: on the one hand, OPEC meeting is about to be held on Thursday, and the international crude oil price has been adjusted for several days under the expectation of increasing production; on the other hand, the supply and demand forecast of PX upstream of PTA has changed, and the previous continuous expectation of going to the warehouse supports the strong rise of PX price and processing The cost has been strengthened to a high level of 288 US dollars / ton. Under the influence of high inventory and the recent domestic PX start-up recovery, PX processing fees have also begun to adjust in recent two days, and PTA cost side has weakened, driving PTA prices down.

"From the fundamental point of view, PTA supply and demand improved in the short term in March, the unit maintenance increased under low profit, and the overall support of downstream polyester link was relatively strong, which will still support the price in the later peak demand season." Jiang shuopung, an analyst of Dadi futures, said that in general, the decline in short-term cost side led to the downward shift of PTA price center, while the short-term improvement of supply and demand still supported the price. In the long run, the pressure of high inventory and high production on the price still needs to be considered. At present, PTA is still cost-oriented, and the subsequent trend is still to follow the fluctuation of crude oil price.

With polyester raw materials, ethylene glycol also showed a large adjustment range recently. The main reason is that supply and demand have changed. "Previous domestic start-up was low, combined with the forecast of less imports, ethylene glycol will continue to go to the warehouse before May. With the increase of ethylene glycol price, the profit of ethylene glycol has increased greatly. With the seasonal weakening of EO profit, the oil production and coal quality start-up show a significant upward trend. In addition, satellite petrochemical, Shaanxi Weihe Binzhou chemical and other new units have trial run plans in March, and the domestic supply side pressure may increase significantly in the later stage. "

In this regard, Jiang shuopung believes that the recent sharp drop in crude oil has weakened the support for ethylene glycol price, but the current supply and demand pattern of ethylene glycol is still good, and the price fluctuation is expected to be large in the future. "At present, the port inventory is at a low level within the year, and it will still go to the warehouse in the next two months, and it is expected that the import volume from March to April will pick up difficultly. The logic of near end destocking and long-term high production are relatively clear, and the overall situation of ethylene glycol is still strong reality and weak expectation. "