Zheng Cotton Price Falls, Cotton Yarn Market Trading Rhythm Slows Down

From the external environment, US President Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus bill passed the last checkpoint in Congress on Wednesday, and US stocks responded. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 32485.59 on Friday, up 3% in the week. The U.S. University of Michigan's consumer confidence index rose to 83 in early March, far exceeding the expected 78.5 and 76.8 before February. However, the market is still worried about the inflation expectation caused by large-scale economic stimulus. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the United States has issued a large amount of money. With the recovery of money circulation speed, the inflation problem has become increasingly prominent. On Friday, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose strongly, reaching 1.63%, while the one-year inflation expectation in the United States was 3.1% in March. The inflation expectation remained high, and the market "fear of shrinking" continued to grow Extension. On the domestic side, affected by the Spring Festival, China's credit expansion slowed down in February, but still stronger than expected. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 broad money supply rose to 10.1% from 9.4% in January. From the data, domestic monetary policy did not show a "sharp turn". Under this keynote, the credit environment was booming in February, and the domestic economy continued to recover.

This week, the CRB commodity price index closed at 193.79 on Friday, up 0.34 from last Friday. The 10-year US debt continued to fluctuate at a high level, causing a "contraction panic" in the market. Commodity prices continued to adjust during the week. The domestic Wenhua commodity index closed at 179.74 on Friday, down 4.27 from last Friday. The U.S. dollar index ended the week with three consecutive losses. WTI crude oil futures closed at $66.02/barrel on Friday, with a slight rise of $0.07/barrel. On the spot, the CCI 3128b price was 15986 yuan / ton on Friday, with a cumulative decrease of 353 during the week; the spot price of cotton yarn fell slightly, and the spot price of c32s yarn on Friday was 25400 yuan / ton, with a cumulative decrease of 450 yuan within the week. In terms of substitutes, the price of polyester raw materials was weak, the price of polyester yarn dropped slightly, T32 price was 12780 yuan / ton, with a cumulative decrease of 330 yuan in the week; the price of human cotton yarn remained stable, with CY R30 price of 19600 yuan / ton on Friday, which was the same as last week.

From the domestic yarn point of view, with the decline in cotton prices, cotton yarn, grey cloth trading this week is obviously weak, market wait-and-see. In terms of price, traders increased their low-cost goods. During the week, the prices of cotton yarn of various varieties were lowered. The cotton yarn prices of some enterprises were reduced by 300-800 yuan / ton, and the prices of some high-end enterprises dropped by more than 1000 yuan per ton. In terms of inventory load, cotton yarn inventory is still at a low level for about 5 days, and the gray cloth inventory of cloth factory decreased slightly; the load of cotton mill and cloth factory remained stable, unchanged compared with last week. In terms of imported yarn, the inner quotation of imported yarn has been reduced by 500-700 yuan / ton this week, with less market transactions and an increase in inventory compared with that of last week; the external quotation has also fallen, with fewer transactions, and the shipping schedule of printed yarn, Bata yarn and Yue yarn is scheduled to the first ten days of May.

Generally speaking, the advantages and disadvantages of large-scale economic stimulus in the United States are reflected in the macro aspect. At present, it seems that the "fear of shrinking" sentiment prevails and continues to pay attention to the macro data. At home, the cotton futures price fluctuation in recent years has slowed down compared with the downstream purchasing pace of the ambassador. The wait-and-see sentiment in the cotton yarn market continues to rise, and the low-cost shipment of cotton yarn traders has increased, and the spot price of cotton yarn generally fell by 300-800 yuan / ton in the week. Cotton yarn, grey cloth inventory is still at a low level, market orders are OK, according to the author's investigation in Henan this week, the current low count yarn market orders of some enterprises to the middle of April, but the new orders are less. The profit of the mill is considerable, the profit of 32 cotton yarn is 3000-4000 yuan / ton, and that of 60 combed cotton yarn is 6000-8000 yuan / ton. At present, the operating range of Zhengzhou yarn is 22000-25000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the future price of cotton yarn will fluctuate in a wide range in the short term, and the spot price of CY C32 will be 25400 yuan / T. with the increase of cotton yarn supply in the low-cost market of traders, the profit of cotton yarn may be narrowed, and the short-term spot price of cotton yarn is expected to be weak.

The closing price of cy105 contract on Friday was 23480 yuan / ton, 415 lower than Monday; the position was 5994, 829 less this week.

This Friday, CCI 3128 index was 15986 yuan / ton, down 353 from the beginning of the week; Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 15870 yuan / ton on Friday, while polyester short price fell, PF closed at 7548 on Friday, down 372, half light 1.4d, the mainstream was 7400-7650 yuan / ton. Stick to the short price stable, 1.2D stick short 15600 yuan / ton, mainstream stick short price index stable at 15605800 yuan / ton.

The cotton yarn trading in this week was weak, which was obviously not as good as last week. The price of high price yarn fell a little. During the week, the price of various varieties of cotton yarn decreased by 90-500 yuan / ton, of which CY jc40s price was 29150 yuan / ton, which was 420 yuan lower during the week; CY c32s price was 25400 yuan / ton, falling 450 yuan within the week.

This week, China's yarn inventory index is 8.8 days, China's yarn load index is 64.4%, cotton yarn inventory of spinning enterprises is 5.1 days, cotton yarn inventory of weaving mills is 15.8 days, and the load of pure cotton yarn factory is 63.4%.

Cotton yarn operation, cotton futures after a big shock, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong. Cotton yarn trading in this week was significantly weaker than that of last week. Textile enterprises completed the old orders mainly, and the cotton yarn inventory of spinning enterprises increased slowly, but it was still at a low level, and the cotton yarn inventory of textile factories decreased slightly.

In terms of substitutes, the inventory of finished products of human cotton yarn is 12 days, the load of human cotton yarn is 66%, the inventory of pure polyester yarn is 14.2 days, and the load of pure polyester yarn is 63.4%.

In terms of substitute operation, this week, the price center of polyester yarn has moved down, the enterprise load has been reduced, and the polyester yarn inventory has increased slowly.

The price of inner plate of imported yarn decreased, and the higher price fell by 500-700 yuan / ton. Downstream procurement was cautious and mainly wait-and-see. In terms of price: some traders in Guangdong market reported 20500-20700 yuan / ton tax included in the second-line siro spinning c10s, with the high quotation still above 21000 yuan / ton, and the Indian jc32s knitting quotation was still around 29000 yuan / ton; the price of air spinning in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was stable and fell, and the varieties were differentiated. The price of Vietnam oec21s woven fabric was quoted at 165007000 yuan / ton, and that of Vietnam c32s jet bag bleaching was around 26500 yuan / ton.

In terms of imported yarn outer plate, the quotation of printing yarn outer plate was stable and fell. The mainstream jc26s knitting bleachable price of cotton mill traders was 3.85-3.95 US dollars / kg, equivalent to 29800-30600 yuan / ton. The mainstream oec16s was quoted at 2.17-2.20, equivalent to RMB 16900-17200 yuan / ton. Shipping time in April and may, L / C at sight. The quotation of Vietnam's external offer is stable and falling. Some factories in Vietnam offer us $3.38/kg, equivalent to RMB 25400 / T, for shipment in May, by L / C at sight; for oec21s, the floating offer is US $2.4/kg, equivalent to RMB 18000 yuan / T, for the shipping period of the end of March and April, L / C at sight. The external offer of Pakistan yarn has been recalled. The first-line siro spinning c10s offers 545-560 US dollars / piece, equivalent to RMB 22600-23200 yuan / ton; the second-line siro spinning c10s offers 515-530 US dollars / piece, equivalent to 21400-22000 yuan / ton. The shipping time is from late April to early May, with an additional 30 days and 90 days L / C.

In terms of yarn operation rate in foreign countries, the operation rate of Vietnam, India and Pakistan is 95%, 91% and 90% respectively, which is the same as that of last week.

Import yarn inventory 9.3 days, import yarn downstream load 73.8%.

The import yarn load increased slightly. As the cotton yarn trading was not as good as last week, the import yarn inventory also increased.

In terms of grey fabric price, the grey fabric price of each part rose slightly this week, with the increase rate of 0.2 yuan / m, and the price of denim and polyester cotton cloth remained stable.

This week, the total cotton grey cloth inventory is 17.4 days, the artificial cotton grey cloth inventory is 18.4 days, and the domestic grey cloth inventory is 17.8 days; China grey cloth load index is 65.3%.

Grey cloth operation, gray cloth inventory this week decreased slightly, at a low level, slightly increased load.

According to the market volume statistics of China Light and Textile City (600790), the total sales volume of grey cloth this week was 36.75 million meters, an increase of 2.23 million meters compared with last week. Among them, chemical fiber cloth was traded today, 25.9 million meters, all cotton cloth was 2.14 million meters, and Renmin cotton cloth was 1.5 million meters.

As of March 12, domestic CY C32 price was 25400 yuan / ton, CCI 3128b price was 15986 yuan / ton, the processing cost was 5500 yuan / ton, and the theoretical price of cotton yarn CY C32 was calculated as 23085 yuan / ton. The theoretical profit is 2315 yuan. Recently, the company's profit is good, and the follow-up attention is paid to the mill startup and order persistence.

As of March 12, the price of domestic CY C32 is 25400 yuan / ton, that of Indian jet c32s is 25970 yuan / ton, the price difference is - 570, and the price difference of Vietnam jet c32s is 25900 yuan / ton, the price difference is - 500 yuan, and there is no arbitrage opportunity.

As of March 12, there were 0 warehouse receipts (0 ton) and 0 valid forecast (0 ton) in zhengsha, and the total amount of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 0 ton.

This week, the highest price of cotton yarn cy105 disk is 23545 yuan / ton, the lowest price is 22865 yuan / ton, and the closing price on Friday is 23480 yuan / ton. During the week, it is down 415 yuan, the position is 5165, and - 829 hands within the week. From the perspective of Zhou's super win technology, F2 index shows signs of falling down, zjll index is below the 0 axis, among which CK and zjll indicators give short signal, pressure level 24600, support level 22000, it is recommended to participate in every pressure level empty sheet.

This week, the cotton yarn Market Trading weakened and the market mentality was cautious. With traders selling at low prices, the spot price of cotton yarn fell down, and the inventory of cotton yarn and grey cloth was still at a low level. It is estimated that the downward space of cotton yarn price is limited. It is expected that the fluctuation of cotton yarn futures price will be weak in the short term. The operating range of cy05 contract price is 22000-25000. It is suggested that investors should consider the price falling to around 22500 to participate in more orders, Stop loss 22300, profit loss ratio of 3:1, position control at about 15%; if the price rises to around 25000, the holder of multiple orders will consider stopping profit, and the mill will consider hedging.