PTA: Supply Side Contraction, Ta High Shock

PTA interval shock last week. From the supply side, PTA units fluctuated greatly during the week. Hengli Petrochemical line 4 2.5 million tons and Huabin Petrochemical 1.4 million tons units were overhauled on March 6, Xinjiang Zhongtai 1.2 million tons units were overhauled due to shortage of raw materials; Yadong Petrochemical 750 thousand tons units were restarted after two days of maintenance due to alkali washing problem, and the overall load of Honggang Petrochemical phase 2 was increased. PTA load was 77.30% in the last week and 85.6% in the previous week. TA plant will not change much next week. On the demand side, the terminal is mainly to digest the raw materials for stock preparation, polyester production and sales are weak, and the polyester inventory contradiction is accumulating, but the overall load remains at a high level of 93.7%. In March, PTA or accumulated pool decreased, or even slightly removed. In the short term, the supply surplus of PTA itself slowed down, and the basis was strengthened.

Due to the short-term weakness of the demand side, the polyester industry chain itself will not show a trend of upward market, more is the supply side contraction rebound. Of course, this is also true for crude oil. Therefore, from this point of view, PTA is difficult to continue to rise from the cost side, and it is difficult to continue to rise from the demand side. Therefore, at present, we have given PTA with the contraction of the supply side, judging from the high-level fluctuation pattern, there is no obvious upward trend.

In terms of strategy, ta2105 contract refers to the 4800 pressure level of contract 05. In the short-term operation, the pressure of PTA supply remains unchanged in the medium and long term, and PTA processing fees will remain low. PTA plants need to do a good job in hedging, pay attention to the trend of crude oil and pay attention to the risk of margin.