Interpretation: National Bureau Of Statistics CPI In March 2021

The National Bureau of statistics released today the national CPI and PPI data for March 2021. In this regard, Dong Lijuan, Senior Statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, made an interpretation.

　　 1、 CPI from up to down, from down to up year on year

On a month on month basis, affected by the seasonal decline in demand after the Spring Festival, CPI rose by 0.6% last month to decline by 0.5%. Among them, the food price increased from 1.6% in the previous month to a decrease of 3.6%, which affected the CPI decrease by about 0.71%. Among the food products, due to the warm weather, a large number of fresh vegetables were put on the market, and the prices increased from 1.8% last month to 14.5%; pig production continued to recover, and pork prices dropped by 10.9%, an increase of 7.8 percentage points compared with the previous month; consumer demand fell after the Spring Festival, and the prices of beef, mutton, chicken, duck, aquatic products and fresh fruits all changed from up to down, with a decrease range of 0.2% - 1.7%. Non food prices rose 0.2%, down 0.2% from the previous month, affecting the CPI rise of about 0.18%. Among non food products, the price of industrial consumer goods rose by 0.7%, which affected the CPI rise by about 0.22%. Among them, the price of gasoline and diesel rose by 6.6% and 7.3% respectively due to the rise of international crude oil price, and the price of new spring clothes increased by 0.4%. The service price dropped by 0.1%, which affected the CPI decrease by about 0.03%. Among them, the prices of domestic services, car washing and hairdressing services fell seasonally after the Spring Festival, falling by 3.0% - 5.3%; after the epidemic situation improved, travel demand increased, and the price of air tickets increased by 6.4%.

On a year-on-year basis, due to the significant weakening of the negative impact of tail warping, CPI fell by 0.2% in the previous month to rise by 0.4%. Among them, the food price dropped by 0.7%, the decline rate was 0.5 percentage points larger than that of the previous month, which affected the CPI decline by about 0.12 percentage points. Among the food products, the price of pork decreased by 18.4%, and the decline rate increased by 3.5%. The prices of chicken and duck continued to drop by 8.6% and 2.6%, respectively. The prices of beef, mutton, eggs and fresh fruits continued to rise, with the increase of 3.3% - 8.2%. The prices of aquatic products and edible vegetable oil increased by 8.1% and 7.5%, respectively, with the increase of 2.2% and 1.0% respectively. Non food prices increased by 0.7% from a 0.2% drop in the previous month, which affected the rise of CPI by about 0.56%. Among non food products, the price of industrial consumer goods rose by 1.0%, which was the first year-on-year increase in recent year, mainly driven by the rise of 11.9% and 12.8% respectively for gasoline and diesel oil; the service price decreased from 0.1% in the previous month to 0.2% in the previous month.

It is estimated that among the 0.4% year-on-year increase in March, the tail effect of last year's price change was about - 0.6 percentage points, 1.2 percentage points narrower than the previous month, and the impact of new price increase was about 1.0 percentage points. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.3% year-on-year from flat last month, and the core CPI in the first quarter was flat with the same period last year.

　　 2、 Both month on month and year-on-year increases in PPI have expanded

On a month on month basis, affected by factors such as rising international commodity prices, PPI rose by 1.6%, 0.8 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 2.0%, with an increase of 0.9 percentage points; the price of means of living increased from flat to 0.2% last month. Among the 40 industries surveyed, 30 have increased prices, with an increase of 75%, a decrease of 6, and a flat 4. The international crude oil price continued to rise, driving the domestic oil related industries to increase their prices. Among them, the prices of oil and natural gas exploitation industry increased by 9.8%, the prices of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries increased by 5.7%, and the prices of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 5.3%, 2.3%, 0.8% and 3.2% respectively. Affected by the rising price of imported iron ore, domestic industrial production and investment demand, the price of ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry increased by 4.7% and 2.4% respectively. In recent years, the prices of copper, aluminum and other non-ferrous metals in the international market have risen a lot, pushing the prices of domestic nonferrous metal smelting and calendering and processing industry to rise by 4.5% and increase by 3.0%. It is estimated that the above five industries have affected PPI growth by about 1.27 percentage points, accounting for 80% of the total increase. The price of coal mining and washing industry decreased by 3.1%.

On a year-on-year basis, PPI rose by 4.4%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 5.8%, with an increase of 3.5 percentage points; the price of means of living decreased from 0.2% in the previous month to an increase of 0.1%. Among the major industries, the price increase was expanded by 21.5% and 7.4% in ferrous metal smelting and calendering; 21.3% and 9.2% in nonferrous metal smelting and calendering; 11.4% and 7.4% in chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing. The oil and natural gas exploitation industry increased by 23.7%; the oil, coal and other fuel processing industry increased by 13.9%; and the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 1.0%. The price of coal mining and washing industry rose by 6.9%, and the increase fell by 4.0%.

It is estimated that among the 4.4% year-on-year increase in March, the tail effect of last year's price change was about 1.0%, and the impact of new price increase was about 3.4%.