A-Share Easy Liquidity Is About To Reverse? Future Funds Are More Bearish Than Others

On April 13, China was free from flash collapse.

Before that, Shunfeng holdings, meinian health, Sany Heavy Industry and Huahai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd

Recently, the white horse shares have fallen in turn.

On April 13, an illustration circulated on the Internet asked: "kill a white horse share to sacrifice to heaven one day, who will be next?"

In fact, since the year of the ox, the "Mao index" has plummeted by 21%, stopped falling at the end of March, and started a new round of decline on April 6.

This wave of "core assets" is believed to be related to liquidity.

"Recently, the market pays more attention to the problem of liquidity tightening, and the market has made corresponding adjustments." Zhao Lisong, chairman of shangdegu investment, said.

Haifutong fund manager fan Tingfang believes that this round of market adjustment is mainly based on macro response. In the past, the market generally "let out water", so the market would be more sensitive to the extent and intensity of the tightening in anticipation of liquidity tightening.

Standing at the turning point of liquidity?

Last year, in response to the impact of the epidemic, domestic funds were relatively loose, which was beneficial to the stock market.

Recently, however, the market has sensed some subtle changes - data released by the Bureau of statistics show that inflationary pressure is coming.

Recently, the National Bureau of statistics released the price index in March, and PPI exceeded the market expectation year on year. PPI was 4.4% year-on-year, 3.6% expected, 1.7% before, 1.6% month on month, and 0.8% before.

PPI reached 4.4%, which is quite high and far higher than expected. PPI is the leading indicator of CPI, which also means that follow-up inflation may come soon.

The rise in PPI was mainly due to the rise in commodity prices, the continued high international crude oil prices, and the sharp rise in domestic ferrous metal prices due to factors such as production restriction and upgrading. It is worth noting that the price index is expected to continue to rise in the second quarter.

For a shares, the biggest worry is that in order to resist inflation, the central bank or tighten liquidity, the rebound of group stocks will be hindered.

Further ominous news is that on April 12, the social finance data in March were released, and the overall social financing situation was lower than expected. It seems to be confirming the market's concerns.

Data show that China's social financing scale in March was 3.34 trillion yuan, with an expected 3.6 trillion yuan, with the previous value of 1.71 trillion yuan. At the end of March, the stock of social financing scale was 294.55 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, 1 percentage point lower than that of the previous month; M2 growth rate was 9.4%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The new RMB loan is 2730 billion yuan, with an expected 2503.8 billion yuan, and the former value is 1360 billion yuan.

On the whole, the domestic CPI pressure is not big at present, but the rise of bulk commodities and PPI caused by imported inflation is relatively serious. The market is worried about the tightening of monetary policy, resulting in a series of chain reactions in the market in the near future.

With the launch of the US $1.9 trillion easing, inflation expectations are also boosted. The sword of inflation is hanging above the global economy and finance. The uncertainty of the stock market is also greatly increased. At least, the marginal space of monetary easing will gradually narrow in the future.

On April 13, Ren Zeping once again mentioned that "we may be standing at the cyclical inflection point of generalized liquidity". "No sharp turn", the top of this liquidity inflection point will not be too sharp, and the slope is relatively slow.

Ren Zeping believes that the key words in 2021 are "inflation expectation, liquidity inflection point". Opportunities come from here, and so do the risks. The stock market is also around this logic.

For the next liquidity trend, some people in the industry believe that it is difficult to determine.

"The domestic policy will not turn sharply, but after the release of water from the United States, the domestic central bank is more worried that the related financial risks will impact on domestic capital and financial markets, so it is necessary to tighten the fence to prevent external risks from impacting on China. At present, the central bank may take a step-by-step observation, neither further tightening the policy nor further easing the policy, but adopting a corresponding attitude. " A fund industry person said.

Baotuan "roller coaster" A shares confused

At this time, if Baotuan's core assets want to stop falling and rebound, it needs to be boosted by the expectation of liquidity easing. Performance alone is not enough to drive the counterattack of Baotuan shares.

The fact is, although the early Baotuan shares after a round of big correction since the year of the ox, but the valuation is still high.

Looking back this year, the "Mao index" of institutions has been jumping up and down with the expectation of liquidity, just like riding on a roller coaster.

From the beginning of 2021 to the Spring Festival, with the help of loose liquidity, the Mao index soared by 20%;

After the Spring Festival (February 18-april 13), the Mao index fell 21% from its historical high;

In fact, there has been a rebound period in this round of falls since the Spring Festival. In late March, the market generally accepted the expectation that the liquidity "policy will not turn sharply", and the Mao index rebounded by 10%.

On April 6, the Maoist index fell more than 5% as inflation expectations raised concerns about liquidity tightening.

In fact, recently, a large number of white horse stocks such as China immune, Shunfeng holdings, meinian health, Sany Heavy Industry and Huahai pharmaceutical have been adjusted in turn.

It seems that the killing valuation of white horse shares is still on the way.

Recently, Meng Lei, A-share strategist at UBS Securities, released a tracking report on China's stock market, saying, "our data show that the static P / E ratios of the top 50 positions of domestic public funds and Beishang funds are 26.7 times and 25.6 times respectively, which are 19% and 18% lower than the peak at the beginning of the year, but they are still at the level of double standard deviation above the historical average of the past five years."

At this time, most fund managers believe that the stock market may still be volatile in the short term, but they are divided about the future operation.

"At present, the market is an oscillatory market. We do not have to worry about a sharp drop in the market or expect a decent upswing in the index. The biggest possibility is that it will oscillate within the range." Zhao Lisong said.

Zhao Lisong suggested that "investors should control their positions and not easily get involved in the new investment scope. It is a desirable investment strategy to hold money and wait and see."

Huang Huayan, manager of Dadao Xingye Investment Fund, believes that President Yi's statement that China's macroeconomic policies will maintain stability and continuity in the future is the best interpretation of "no sharp turn", and also dispels everyone's worries about liquidity tightening. The stock index will not have a significant correction in the near future, but it may face a directional choice at the end of the month.

Huang Huayan pointed out that the recent performance of high-quality Baima shares in the market did not meet the expectations. The institutions voted with their feet and the stock price collapsed. This risk is partial, and the logic is to kill the valuation. Therefore, the stock index will turn slowly in the later period of the stock index.

Ma Cheng, chairman of juze investment, believes that in addition to the overestimation of core assets, which rose more than last year (although there has been a significant decline after the year, but the overall valuation is still high and has not reached the allocation range), market investors have obvious expectations on the tightening of domestic monetary policy and the easing marginal tightening of monetary policy in Europe and the United States. It is this expectation that makes the market in the near future The field was weak.

"In the next investment, we will continue to stick to the sectors with Pro cyclical allocation, obvious performance growth and low valuation, such as cyclical stocks and household consumption. As for core assets, we believe that the allocation range is not yet reached, and we still need to digest the allocation value in the end and time." Ma Cheng said.

Wei Fengchun, chief macro strategy analyst of Boshi fund, believes that the current A-share market is approaching the time window of "April decision", and the probability of downward adjustment of the stock market caused by the "decision in April" in the past is very large. Since the middle of March, the oscillation and gasping period of this round of Baotuan stocks has come to an end, and the risk of the index's second bottoming is close at hand. It is urgent to continue to reduce positions and adjust the structure.

Wei Fengchun pointed out that after the Spring Festival, the undervalued plate of the supplementary rise or the next make-up fall in the disaster areas, Baotuan shares will also fall, but the decline is less than the former. In the industry, we can focus on banking / chemical industry, furniture / 2C type building materials, leisure services and high-end liquor leaders in the post cycle of real estate.

Hu Po, the future star fund manager of private placement network, said, "the social financing data released on April 12 in March showed that the overall social financing situation was lower than expected, which has confirmed the marginal tightening of monetary liquidity. After that, the central bank's press conference soothed the whole market. Although the central bank's attitude was neutral and optimistic, and the attitude of caring for the market was relatively clear, we thought that the phenomenon of liquidity margin tightening might still continue. Therefore, the market probability rate in the second quarter was mainly oscillatory, and even the possibility of a second bottoming out could not be ruled out. "

However, Hu po said, "the recent flash crash of blue chip stocks, if the relevant stocks were wrongly killed, it may be a relatively good layout opportunity."

Liu Yan, chairman of anjue assets, pointed out that the main reason for the market's recent downturn is that the market expects that the currency will continue to tighten, and this expectation often causes some funds to withdraw first. In the absence of new incentive policies in the market, there will be no new funds coming in for a period of time, keeping the bottom repeatedly oscillating, but there is a large-scale stock disaster like decline It is also very unlikely that the market will remain low and oscillation will be a high probability event in this period of time.

"Judging from the recent market performance, investors don't have to worry too much. The market has released some pressure in the mood. I believe that after entering the second half of the year, with the continuous release of national policies, the market will also usher in a large-scale recovery." Liu Yan said.

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