Under The Environment Of Low Interest Rate, Asset Managers Need To Increase Their Returns By Properly Allocating Risk Assets

Since 2020, "fixed income +" products have become a new favorite of asset management industry.

On the one hand, under the environment of low interest rate, bond coupon and capital gain income decrease, and asset managers need to increase their income by properly allocating risk assets; on the other hand, with the transformation of asset management industry and the shrinking of just paid wealth management market, investors need to find alternative products with stable returns under the premise of controllable risk.

In 2020, "fixed income plus" will live up to expectations and achieve good results. Among them, the index yield of partial bond hybrid fund will exceed 10%.

However, "fixed income plus" funds also have cyclical characteristics.

In the first quarter of this year, the situation of A-share has changed dramatically, and a large number of funds have turned into "falling mother does not recognize". Among them, the "fixed income +" fund, which is known as both attack and defense, also appeared "fixed income -" in the first quarter.

The performance of "fixed income +" in the first quarter of 2021 has been announced. Wind data shows that in the first quarter of 2021, only 55.67% of "fixed income +" achieved positive income, and the positive income was concentrated in the range of 0-2%. The overall performance of "fixed income +" was flat.

However, in the first quarter, 137 "fixed income +" made more than 2% of the income. In the market environment of A-share crash, they still showed their strength.

But needless to say, there are also a large number of "fixed income +" to "fixed income -".

Investment is a marathon. As a reference index, medium and long-term performance is very important (such as fund ranking in three years, five years and ten years). At the same time, short-term performance also needs to be paid attention to, so as to seize the opportunities and avoid risks according to the market cyclical mutation opportunities. In this period, we analyze the performance of the "fixed income +" fund in the first quarter.

How to see the first quarter performance of "fixed income +"? What kind of "fixed income +" obtains good income, and which type becomes "fixed income -"? What is the performance of "fixed income plus" fund compared with equity fund and fixed income fund? Should we buy "fixed income +" funds? How to choose "fixed income +" fund?

"Fixed income +" first quarter results announced

According to wind data, in the first quarter of 2021, of the 1667 "fixed income +" funds, 923 obtained positive returns (accounting for 55.67%), 722 had negative returns (accounting for 43.57%), and 12 had zero returns.

In the first quarter, the top 10 performance of partial bond hybrid funds was: China Southern Ronghuan opened 12.28%, China Merchants Ruiyi 9.21%, Zhejiang Fengli increased 6.64%, Anxin private stable growth a5.74%, Anxin stable growth c5.65%, shenwanlingxin convertible bond 5.29%, Guofu China income 4.98%, Bohai huijinruixuan a4.71%, Bohai huijinruixuan c4.61%, YONGYING stable growth 4.36%.

It is worth mentioning that in the top 10 of the first quarter, there were 8 partial bond hybrid funds and 2 secondary bond bases.

In the field of public offering, the typical types of "fixed income +" funds are partial debt mixed fund, secondary debt base and primary debt base. Among them, the former two are the most classic.

In the wind data statistics, 1657 "fixed income +" funds with statistical performance in the first quarter include: partial bond hybrid funds (847), secondary debt base (651), and first-class debt base (159).

In the first quarter of this year, the average yield of partial bond hybrid fund was 0.16%, the average yield of secondary bond base was - 0.43%, and the average yield of primary bond base was 0.02%.

Among them, 847 partial bond hybrid funds (including a, B, C end), 495 (accounting for 58%) rose; 651 secondary bond bases (including a, B, C ends), 326 funds (accounting for 50%) rose; 159 primary bonds (including a, B, C ends), 102 (64%) rose.

Let's take a look at the first quarter performance of the most typical partial bond hybrid fund and secondary bond base in "fixed income +".

In the first quarter of the "fixed income +" performance, 847 partial bond hybrid funds average return of 0.16%, showing obvious polarization. 495 had positive returns, accounting for 58.44%; 352 had zero or negative returns, accounting for 41.56%.

It is worth mentioning that before the Spring Festival, a shares were booming, and all the partial debt hybrid funds had good returns, with an average return of 2.83%, without any negative return fund.

However, after a round of market falls since the Spring Festival, the average decline of partial bond hybrid funds is 2.36%, and nearly 40% of them have changed from positive to negative, obviously from "fixed income +" to "fixed income -".

A typical case, such as Guofu China income fund, has 16.17% income before the Spring Festival (from 2021-1-1 to 2021-2-10), ranking first among the "fixed income +" funds, but after the Spring Festival (from 2021-2-18 to 2021-3-31), the return drops sharply, which is - 9.63%. The final first quarter revenue was 4.98%, ranking seventh in the first quarter "fixed income +" performance list.

Partial bond hybrid fund performance in the first quarter of this year staged a "double day", partial bond hybrid funds in the first quarter of this year's first and last income gap as high as 27.34%.

In the first quarter, 137 "fixed income plus" funds achieved more than 2% of the income, of which 71 were mixed funds with partial bonds, accounting for 52%.

It is worth mentioning that in history, most of the funds with the highest returns of "fixed income +" funds came from the mixed funds with partial bonds. For example, there were 8 partial bond hybrid funds in the top 10 of "fixed income +" performance in the first quarter.

Another type of "fixed income +" is the secondary bond base. According to wind data, the average yield of 651 secondary bond bases in the first quarter was - 0.43%, lower than the average return of partial bond hybrid funds of 0.16%.

Among them, 495 had positive returns, accounting for 58.44%; 352 had zero or negative returns, accounting for 41.56%.

Before the Spring Festival (from 2021-1-1 to 2021-2-10), the average return of secondary bond base was 1.57%, lower than 2.83% of partial bond hybrid fund. After the Spring Festival (2021-2-18 to 2021-3-31), the average return of secondary bond base is - 1.90%, higher than - 2.36% of partial bond hybrid fund.

In short, the secondary bond base and the partial bond hybrid fund are both "fixed income +", but in terms of income, the secondary bond base is more stable. Its increase is not as big as that of the partial bond hybrid fund, but the decline is not as large as that of the partial bond hybrid fund.

From a data -- the ratio of the stock market value to the net asset value of the fund -- we can see that the performance of the two kinds of funds is different. The secondary bond base is generally less than 20%, while about 50% of the mixed funds with partial debts have a net value ratio of more than 20% at the end of last year. This is the reason why the mixed funds of partial bonds are more vulnerable to the influence of a shares.

As for the performance of "fixed income +" in the first quarter of this year, Zhang Ting, chief strategist of Ge Shang financial management, said, "overall, the performance of fixed income plus is relatively in line with expectations."

According to Zhang Ting's analysis, the "fixed income +" products with good yield this year are mainly due to two factors: first, at the stage of increasing market volatility this year, the stock valuation of fund positions is relatively low, and the proportion of high position stocks is relatively small; second, the "fixed income +" has made appropriate timing at the end of last year or January this year, reducing the stock position.

The logic of "fixed income +" of investment under cyclical

In the shock of A-share market, there is no place to place funds everywhere. At this time, should we buy "fixed income plus" funds, equity funds, or fixed income funds?

First of all, let's take a look at the performance of the "fixed income +" funds in the first quarter. Compared with equity funds and fixed income funds, what is the performance?

In the first quarter of this year, from the perspective of average returns, different types of funds performed as follows: Stock Funds - 2.63%, hybrid funds - 2.26%, medium - and long-term pure debt funds 0.67%, and "fixed income +" funds 1.18%.

In the "fixed income +" funds, the average return in the first quarter of this year: 0.16% of the mixed fund of partial bonds, 0.43% of the secondary bond base, and 0.02% of the primary bond base.

Overall, in the first quarter, the higher the stock position of the fund type, the larger the average decline. For example, from the perspective of yield: medium and long-term pure bond fund 0.67% > "fixed income +" fund > hybrid fund - 2.26% > stock fund - 2.63%

However, "fixed income +" funds, due to their small stock positions, are: partial bond hybrid fund 0.16% > primary bond base 0.02% > secondary bond base-0.43%

In short, in the first quarter of this year, as a whole, the income of "fixed income plus" funds was worse than that of fixed income funds, and became equity funds with "fixed income -" but better performance than "jianma did not recognize".

However, the performance of the first quarter is not consistent with the long-term impression of "fixed income +" in history.

In terms of long-term returns, wind data shows that the average annual growth rate of the typical "fixed income +" - partial bond hybrid fund in the past 10 years is nearly 11%, which is far higher than the current one-year bank financing, and far higher than the average annual growth rate of 5% for medium and long-term pure bond funds in recent 10 years.

But "fixed income +" funds, like partial equity funds, also have periodicity. For example, in the past two years of 2019 and 2020, the average return of the mixed fund index of partial bonds exceeded 10% for two consecutive years, but in 2018, the return rate of the mixed fund index of partial bonds was only 0.22%, compared with 0.16% in the first quarter of this year.

Generally speaking, "fixed income +" will gain better in A-share bull market, because "+" mainly comes from stocks or convertible bonds, but when the stock market is not good, "fixed income +" is not as good as fixed income products.

Although the stock market is in a period of turbulence and the market is not very good, Zhang Ting still suggests that "fixed income + products can play a role in reducing volatility in the case of increased market volatility, and can be properly configured."

In fact, over a long period of time, "fixed income +" fund returns are better than fixed income products. Therefore, many fund managers interviewed by the 21st century economic report have suggested that "fixed income plus" is worthy of long-term holding and investment. Generally speaking, the risk-benefit ratio of "fixed income plus" is cost-effective. Investors who hold "fixed income plus" products for a long time should not only look at the temporary performance. For example, if it is extended to three years, the "fixed income +" income can often exceed the fixed income product.

However, due to the difference of individual stocks and positions, the performance differentiation of funds of the same type is relatively large. Therefore, there is no final conclusion that a certain type of fund will definitely have better returns than another type of fund, and the performance of different funds in one type of fund also has obvious differentiation.

Therefore, Zhang Ting suggests that when choosing "fixed income +" products, we can consider from several aspects: first, the basic information requirements, the scale is more than 200 million, the historical withdrawal is no more than 5%, and the fund manager has more than three years' working experience; second, the same type of fund managed by the fund manager has excellent long-term performance and good performance continuity; third, the fund manager has a certain asset allocation ability It can improve the return risk ratio of the portfolio and reduce the withdrawal of the fund through appropriate timing; 4. The fund manager has strong stock selection ability and has good long-term alpha return. Its "fixed income +" product mainly uses the stock part for "+" realization. If the stock excess return is weak, it can not be ruled out that it will become "fixed income -"; fifth, it is necessary to choose a strong investment research team configuration Fund companies, especially bond investment.

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