Great Wall Securities Textile And Clothing Industry Zero Data Review In March

[summary of Research Report]

Strategy group view: from January to March, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 33.9% year-on-year, 0.1% higher than the previous value, with an average growth rate of 4.2% in two years. In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 34.2% in a single month on a year-on-year basis, up 0.4% from the previous value, higher than the expected 30.4%, and the average growth rate in two years was 6.3%, basically returning to the level of December 2020. The actual monthly growth rate of social zero was 33.0%, 1.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, which was affected by the upward trend of CPI this month. In terms of products, from January to March, the growth rate of clothing, gold and silver jewelry, furniture and automobile was more than 50%, and the compound growth rate of gold and silver jewelry and automobile in two years was more than 30%. The compound growth rate of all categories was higher than that from January to February. The compound growth rate of gold and silver jewelry, clothing, furniture, petroleum products and automobile became positive. In March, the growth rate of clothing, gold and silver jewelry was more than 50%, and that of gold and silver jewelry and automobile was more than 50% The compound growth rate of automobile industry in two years is more than 30%, the growth rate of other categories is higher than that of last month, and the compound growth rate of petroleum industry turns from negative to positive, among which gold, silver, jewelry and automobile categories have increased by more than 30% compared with last month. From January to February, the growth rate of catering income recovered to 75.8% from 68.9%, and the two-year compound growth rate rose from - 1.96% to - 1.05%; the retail sales dropped from 30.7% to 30.4%, and the two-year compound growth rate recovered from 3.78% to 4.78%. The impact on online retailing was relatively small, but from February to March last year, due to the suspension of express delivery, the growth rate also fell to 29.9% from 32.5% in January to February, and the compound growth rate in two years increased from 13.37% to 13.52%, which was at a high level before the epidemic. The recovery of consumption level in the first quarter exceeded market expectations. From the single month growth rate of social zero, the compound growth rate in two years has risen to 6.3%, returning to the growth level before the epidemic. The monthly growth rate of catering consumption continued to recover. On the one hand, the base of last year was low, on the other hand, the composite year-on-year growth rate of two years was still in a negative range. As the blockade has not yet been fully opened, the catering industry is still affected, and the full recovery still needs to wait until the full opening. Since this year, affected by the downward trend of pig prices, CPI food items have continued to decline, and it is expected to enter a negative range from next month; while with the rise of oil and commodity prices, CPI non food items continue to rise; the growth rate of core CPI began to fluctuate, but gradually showed an upward trend since this year. The positive and negative effects of CPI of food and non food items on CPI are mutually restrained, and the impact on consumption may be small. From the perspective of PPI data, both year-on-year and month on month (month on month) rebounded significantly in March, mainly due to the continued strong demand for bulk commodities. The price rise led to an upward trend of PPI on a year-on-year basis, indicating that the demand continues to improve, which is expected to drive the consumption price of downstream industries which are inclined to be "Pro cyclical" in the consumption data.

Food and beverage: Catering and catering above the quota grew rapidly on a year-on-year basis, and tobacco, liquor and beverage continued to grow at a high speed. Wuliangye (000858)] and Shanxi Fenjiu (600809), which are in the upward trend of both quantity and price, are recommended. In the zero data of food and beverage related agencies in March, catering and catering above the quota showed a recovery trend with strong growth. Tobacco and alcohol continued to increase and maintain upward prosperity. Grain, oil and food had growth toughness and steady growth. In March, the total amount of social zero income was + 34.2% year-on-year, with a significant growth and a month on month increase;

The actual total amount of social zero was + 33.0% on a year-on-year basis. With the gradual control of the epidemic situation, the consumption frequency of dining out increased, and the catering and catering above the quota showed an obvious recovery trend, which continued to be better. Revenue from tobacco and alcohol increased by 47.4% year-on-year, and maintained upward prosperity; income from beverage industry increased by + 33.3%, maintaining growth resilience;

The retail sales of Cereals, Oils and foodstuffs increased by 8.3% year on year. The secondary high-end will benefit from the recovery of catering scene, and has the expansion space and consumption potential under the rapid growth of catering and catering income above the quota. On the whole, we think that we should pay attention to the superior varieties with good performance in the first quarter, and add the catalyst factors of sugar and wine. We expect to promote the rebound of secondary high-end liquor and judge that the high-end liquor has good sustainability; high-end liquor is the cornerstone, and the logic of secondary high-end increase remains unchanged. We should pay more attention to Wuliangye and Fenjiu, and continue to recommend JINZI and Shuijingfang (600779). 2.) pay close attention to the companies with excellent performance in the first quarter, attach great importance to the opportunities of dairy industry plate, and give priority to Guangming, Yili and xindairy (002946). 3.) focus on the field of big health, continue to be optimistic about underestimating the big health varieties with changes, pay attention to ZHONGXIN PHARMACEUTICAL (600329), Lingrui Pharmaceutical (600285), shouxiangu (603896), jindawei (002626), Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical (600750), Yiduoli (300381). 4) Focusing on the companies with excellent performance in the first quarter report and good asset structure, Shunxin agriculture (000860) and Zhongju hi tech (600872) are the first to improve profitability in the medium and long term. Medium term optimistic about the best track in the company and management of marginal change. In terms of individual stocks, [Wuliangye] as a result of group purchase, the process of nationalization is obvious, and the dynamic sales is gradually warming up. With the deepening of internal reform and the implementation of innovation driven strategy, the company will enter a period of comprehensive development in the future. Channel control, brand building and product reputation will further improve. In the long run, it will be in the upward trend of both quantity and price. [Shanxi Fenjiu] in the first year of the 14th five year plan, the performance of 20 years has been brilliant, the logic of reform and growth has been fulfilled continuously, the product strategy of "grasping both ends and taking the middle" has reaped the industry dividend, the brand has returned strongly, the market outside the Province has been accelerated to expand, and the process of nationalization of fragrance leader has started again.