Interpretation Of The Maritime Silk Road Trade Index In March: The Quarterly Trade Volume Reached A Record High, And The Prices Of Imported Goods Rose Significantly

In March 2021, the maritime Silk Road trade index released by Ningbo shipping exchange is as follows: the import and export trade index is 163.83 points, up 33.70% year on year; The export trade index was 167.18 points, up 30.24% year on year; The import trade index was 160.42 points, up 37.57% year on year.

In March, China's total import and export volume of goods trade was 3.02 trillion yuan (RMB pricing, the same below), with a year-on-year increase of 24.0%. Among them, exports reached 1.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.7 percent; Imports reached 1.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 27.7%. In the first quarter, China's total imports and exports of goods totaled 8.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 29.2% year-on-year. Among them, exports totaled 4.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.7%; Imports totaled 3.85 trillion yuan, up 19.3% year on year; The trade surplus was 759.29 billion yuan. Compared with the same period in 2019, the import and export, export and import increased by 20.5%, 22.5% and 18.2% respectively, which were also at a high level. In the first quarter, the import and export, export and import scale of China's goods trade reached a record high in the same period, showing a steady and good development trend.

From a regional perspective, ASEAN, the European Union, the United States, Japan and South Korea were China's top five trading partners in the first quarter. In the first quarter, the trade volume between China and the United States increased by 73.1% year-on-year. In addition, the trade volume between China and Australia increased by 28.3% year on year. Although the trade frictions between China, the United States and Australia are intensifying, the scale of bilateral trade between China and the United States and Australia is growing, setting a historical record of bilateral trade in the same period. The total trade volume between China and the countries along the belt and road increased by 29.74% year on year; Among them, exports increased by 37.3% and imports increased by 21.14% year-on-year. Compared with the same period in 2020, the trade share between China and the "belt and road" countries decreased by 1.94% last year, because China's trade with the EU and the United States increased more in the first quarter.

In terms of export commodities, the export of epidemic prevention materials such as medical equipment increased by 60.8% year on year in the first quarter; The export of mechanical and electrical equipment increased by 53.5% year on year; The export of high-tech products increased by 49.2% year on year; The export of textile and clothing, toys, furniture, lamps and lanterns increased by 27.9%, 72.3%, 73% and 100.3% respectively year-on-year. On the whole, export products continue to climb up the value chain. The proportion of mechanical and electrical products exports in total exports increased by 1.7 percentage points to 60.3%. The industrial base was more stable and the ability of independent development was further enhanced.

In terms of import, the import volume of iron ore in the first quarter increased by 8% year-on-year, but the import amount increased by 77.7% year-on-year due to the impact of a large increase in price. The import volume of agricultural products driven by grain and edible vegetable oil increased by 33.8% year on year. Imports of aircraft, semiconductors, auto parts, LCD panels and other products increased rapidly. The import volume of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products increased by 30.9% and 31.0% respectively over the same period of last year, of which the import of integrated circuits increased by 11.2%. The substantial increase in the issuance of U.S. currency has brought about a rise in the prices of major global commodities, including iron ore, grain and integrated circuits.

In April 2021, the PMI of China's manufacturing industry was 51.1, down 0.8 percentage points month on month. In foreign countries, the PMI of US manufacturing industry was 60.7, down 4.0 month on month; Japan's PMI was 53.6, up 0.9 month on month; PMI in Germany was 66.2, down 0.4; PMI in France was 58.9, down 0.4; PMI in the UK was 60.9, up 2.0; Russia's PMI was 50.4, down 0.7; India's PMI was 55.5, up 0.1; Brazil's PMI was 52.3, down 0.5. On the whole, the PMI of manufacturing industry in the main economic systems has increased and decreased, but it has been maintained above the prosperity dry line.

At present, the global economy and trade show a restorative growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its expectation of global economic growth in 2021 from 5.5% in January to 6%; The World Trade Organization raised the growth rate of Global trade in goods to 8% from 7.2% in the previous period. China's policies and measures to coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development are effective. The PMI index of the manufacturing industry has been above the boom and bust line for 13 consecutive months, and the prosperity of the manufacturing industry has further rebounded. In addition, with the rise of import prices of bulk commodities, many factors jointly promote China's foreign trade to achieve three consecutive quarters of year-on-year positive growth since the third quarter of last year. This trend is expected to continue for a period of time in the future. The maritime Silk Road trade index in April 2021 will continue to grow at a high speed.