After The IPO Of China Eastern Airlines Logistics, How Far Is China Cargo And China Southern Cargo From Listing?

As the first share of air cargo listing and the first share of civil aviation mixed reform, China Eastern logistics has index significance.

Qi Qi, a senior civil aviation expert and associate professor of Guangzhou Civil Aviation Vocational and technical college, told the 21st century economic reporter that China Eastern Airlines logistics is the pioneer in the key field of central enterprise reform -- civil aviation freight transport, and is also the "first meal soup" for the separation and listing of the business sector of the central enterprise aviation group The mixed reform of freight transport plate of China Southern Airlines Group has important path reference and reference significance.

"For air cargo, from the introduction of strategic investors to carry out mixed reform, to the reform of market-oriented mechanism, to the final listing, China Eastern logistics can be said to be a model in the field of air cargo, so this is a case of special reference significance for other airlines." Civil aviation expert Lin Zhijie thinks, as for Air China and China Southern Airlines can eventually go through? "There are still some uncertainties," he said

Comparison of three major air cargo mixed transformation

Han Tao, an expert in civil aviation, pointed out that the success of the mixed reform of China Eastern Airlines logistics is obviously of great significance for China cargo and China Southern Airlines. In the process of mixed reform, social capital has been fully introduced into freight logistics, which has realized the diversification of equity, and has broken through the dilemma of "nine losses in ten years".

After China Eastern logistics announced the mixed reform plan in 2017, in 2019 and 2020, China Cargo Airlines and China Southern logistics also announced their own mixed reform plans, and introduced strategic investors successively.

Han Tao compared the similarities and differences of the three air cargo mixed reform schemes to reporters. The similarities are that the freight revenue of the three airlines accounts for no more than 10%, and their sense of existence is low. In the process of mixed reform, they start from the industry, integrate assets from the logistics field, establish special logistics freight companies, integrate resources, and better develop the freight field. In addition, the three major air cargo companies have chosen the mode of "capital increase and share expansion + employee stock ownership" for mixed reform. The difference is that the three companies' employee shareholding ratio is between 3% and 10%.

From the perspective of ownership structure after the mixed reform, the three air cargo companies maintain the state-owned capital holding position. The difference is that the proportion of state-owned capital held by China Cargo Airlines and China Eastern Airlines after the mixed reform is 45%, maintaining a relatively controlling position. After the mixed logistics reform of China Southern Airlines, the proportion of state-owned capital holding was 50.5%, maintaining the absolute holding position.

In addition, the types of investors introduced by the three companies are the combination of strategic investors and financial investors. On the one hand, they can improve their strategic layout in terms of logistics, and on the other hand, they can make strategic investment, which is conducive to the complementary advantages of resources and the advantages of coordinated development. He said that the number of investors introduced by the three companies is different, with 4 in China Eastern Airlines, no more than 10 in Air China and 8-15 in China Southern Airlines.

Yang Daqing, an expert member of the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, told reporters that traditional state-owned air cargo enterprises mostly play the role of carrier, and their service chain is short. Their business is limited by monopoly resources and lacks vitality and market competitiveness, which is not enough to adapt to modern logistics market competition. For China Eastern Airlines logistics and other state-owned air cargo enterprises, it is not only a simple introduction of capital, but also the introduction of business flow; It is not only the introduction of strategic investment, but also the activation of employee motivation through employee ownership. In this respect, China Eastern Airlines logistics is similar to China Southern Airlines and China Cargo Airlines. He also pointed out that China Eastern Airlines logistics has a higher proportion of non-state-owned capital. Both China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines have introduced traditional logistics enterprise capital, while China Cargo Airlines has introduced digital logistics platform capital, which may have an impact on the subsequent ecosystem construction.

The 21st century economic reporter has noticed that the mixed reform plan of China Eastern Airlines logistics seems to be more "radical" than the other two companies in terms of the ratio of major shareholders' transfer of shares, employees' removal of their vest and management's shareholding.

Qi Qi pointed out that the current mixed reform scheme is only version 1.0, which is carefully formulated and created by the three major airlines according to their own business and management of air cargo plate. The plans of the three major airlines do not have horizontal comparability, and it is impossible to say whether they are "radical". China Eastern logistics solution is more close to the needs of the capital market, and it is also a faster company from the company's establishment to IPO. Air China and China Southern may introduce round a and B financing to seek IPO at a more reasonable and optimized time to obtain higher market valuation.

Lin Zhijie believes that different companies have different choices for the design of mixed transformation scheme, and there are many factors behind it. For example, the business situation of the enterprise itself, the ecology and gene of the enterprise itself, the courage of reform and so on“ We can only say that China Eastern's reform plan has gone further and more thoroughly. " Lin Zhijie believes that in terms of the significance of the reform pilot itself, it is hoped that different enterprises can take different paths and have different schemes, so that the most suitable path can be really found out through the pilot project, which is more meaningful for the pilot project.

"Copying" is not easy

After the listing of China Eastern Airlines logistics, the market's expectation for the mixed reform of China Cargo Airlines and China Southern Airlines logistics has risen sharply. But Qi Qi pointed out that the three major airlines are located in different bases, the civil aviation freight market situation is very different, "copy operation" mode is not feasible. Air China and China Southern should deeply explore the comparative high-quality resource endowment of their own advantageous markets, and find the mixed transformation scheme B and C more in line with their own needs.

Qi Qi also said that the listing of China Eastern Airlines logistics has the "hard constraint" requirement of the central enterprises' mixed reform of "benchmarking and table matching", which has an important demonstration role. It should first try and speed up. In theory, air freight is not very attractive in the capital market. Although aviation logistics is a big concept, logistics companies with the background of Aviation Department of central enterprises still need to extend business chain in upstream and downstream, and establish their own advantages. The advantages of business chain also need to explore practice and profit realization. "IPO is not the focus of China Eastern Airlines' logistics reform, but the starting point of new and higher requirements." Qi Qi believes that it is not necessary to set a timetable for the mixed logistics reform of Air China and China Southern Airlines, and pay more attention to high quality.

Han Tao believes that small and medium-sized air cargo enterprises will also be eager to try the listing performance of China Eastern Airlines logistics. However, the air cargo market capacity is limited, and various factors such as route resources, cargo sources and transport capacity restrict the development of various air cargo enterprises. I believe investors will be more cautious in facing the air cargo enterprises that are going to be listed later.

Han Tao pointed out that both Air China cargo and China Southern Airlines are on the list of "double hundred action" enterprises in the reform of state-owned enterprises, and the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform is ushering in the key node of "chess to mid market". Recently, the state owned assets supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a three-year action promotion meeting on the reform of central enterprises to study and plan the next step of work. Hao Peng, Secretary of the Party committee and director of the state owned assets supervision and Administration Commission, demanded that "all enterprises should compare the hard target of completing 70% of the tasks before the end of the year, reverse the construction period, seek actual results, and ensure the quality of reform while speeding up the progress". This may be the wind direction for the two companies to change speed.

Yang Daqing also believed that the mixed reform of China Eastern Airlines is forming a banner effect, which has a positive impact on the development of China cargo and China Southern Airlines. Driven by e-commerce express and other business flows, it is still a good window period for China's air cargo enterprises to go public.

As for whether China Eastern logistics can form its own competitiveness after listing, Qi Qi believes that at present, air freight has gradually transited from large logistics mode to supply chain mode. Under the new model, the so-called areas of competence of airlines may change from "long board" to "short board"“ It is the "King's way" that man makes plans and heaven makes things happen, that innovation should be used to cope with all kinds of changes, and that the efficient management within the enterprise can accurately grasp the new trend of the market. " Qi Qi pointed out that if we continue to use the old thinking, eat the old capital of state-owned enterprises, and use the so-called "moat" to protect the body, we can only die.

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