Research On The Speculation Of ST Shares In The 64Th Issue Of Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Commission

Stock concept speculation is not a new thing, nor A-share patent. For a long time, the short-term fluctuation of stock price is affected by various factors, including the prediction of the fundamental of listed companies and the expectation of the future impact of some major events. For example, the presidential election, crude oil prices, blockchain, quantitative easing, and shooting incidents have significantly stimulated the US stock market. Even the speeches and tweets of some important figures will disturb the market. Markets in South Korea and Taiwan have also experienced similar speculative speculation in concept stocks.

Recently, the overall increase of stock prices of A-share st plate companies has been enlarged. A small number of stocks with small circulating market value, low price and poor fundamentals such as * ST Dazhi and * ST Zhaoxin have experienced a short-term rapid rise in stock prices, and the phenomenon of speculation is more prominent, which is highly concerned by the market. However, the 21st century economic report has noticed that the logic behind it is not so simple as "hype".

Why do "Boshi" games come on frequently?

Whether it is the tulip bubble in the Netherlands, the Mississippi company bubble in France, or the South China Sea stock bubble in Britain, there is a truth behind it. The "speculation" and "gambler's psychology" disturb the market, which can convey to the political, economic and social aspects and cause serious damage.

This is also one of the most fundamental reasons for the current central government's severe crackdown on illegal securities activities, the continuous introduction and improvement of the market mechanism for the survival of the fittest by the CSRC, and the number of listed companies terminated by the exchange has reached a record high. But speculators turn a blind eye to this fact and repeat yesterday's story as always.

Let's go back to the root of the problem: can buying and selling st stocks really make money?

The symbols of ST and * ST are synonyms of high risk. Investors should be very aware that such companies have poor fundamentals, weak main business and high risk, and may fall off the cliff at any time.

However, it is precisely this point that gives speculators the "expectation" that they can take a step forward or that salted fish can be revived and the sea will be vast. Even if they can not complete the reorganization, they can still "bet" on the company's shell. If they are unfortunately delisted from the market, they will be able to run ahead of time and slip away.

According to statistics, since the beginning of this year, 32 ST Companies in A-share have been trading for more than 20 days, of which * ST Zhongtai and * ST energy-saving have reached 55 days and 45 days respectively, with the range up and down more than 200%. In order to gain the price difference income of stock price fluctuation, hot money carries on the speculation and induces many retail investors to participate, further strengthening the group effect of follow the trend speculation.

It seems that it is a good investment decision to speculate on these stocks with small market value, low price and falling limit. However, the fact is that it deviates from the fundamental and keeps rising, and the risk behind it may be greater.

The rush of speculative money may not be as smart as they think.

The focus of speculation in St plate is the possibility that the stock price of this kind of company will rise continuously after taking off the star and taking off the hat or resuming listing, usually fast in and fast out, repeated speculation. However, there is great uncertainty in the path and result of the game between investors. From the perspective of game theory, making individual seemingly reasonable decisions under the fact that everyone knows may lead to collective irrational results - it seems that all people do not feel that they are the last stick of "beating drums and passing flowers".

The reporter noticed that, regardless of whether the company can take off the stars and take off the hat, even if it finally achieves its wish, the result is not as good as expected. According to statistics, as of June 15, 75 A-share companies had an average rise and fall of only 4.81% in the five trading days after taking off their stars and hats, and nearly half of the companies had a negative rise and fall.

As Robert Schiller, the Nobel Laureate of economics, said, systematic irrational behavior and high optimism will lead to bubbles. At this time, people generally underestimate the risk, and finally "swindlers and fools lead a group of stupid smart people to go further and further".

Guiding investors to "return to the right path" through multi pronged approach

Facing the game of "beating drums and spreading flowers" which will seriously disrupt the market pricing mechanism and "harm is more difficult to gain" for investors, investors should improve their understanding of the harmfulness of speculation and overcome the fatal weakness of animal spirit in human nature. In addition, effective regulatory mechanism is also essential.

In recent years, the regulatory authorities have been paying close attention to the chaos of market speculation in the aspects of stock trading, information disclosure and system construction. Through continuous improvement of various systems such as investor suitability management, trading system, information disclosure and daily monitoring, as well as strengthening law enforcement, the market speculation space has been compressed in a multi-dimensional and all-round way, Maintain the normal trading order of the market.

The regulatory authorities have repeatedly publicly "yelled" to the majority of investors to remind them to invest rationally and be alert to trading risks. St stocks such as large price fluctuations in the short term, suspected of market manipulation and entering delisting consolidation period are listed in the list of key stocks for key monitoring.

For example, on August 27 and September 8, 2020, Tianshan biological triggered the serious abnormal fluctuation standard and abnormal fluctuation standard. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange continuously focused on monitoring the stock trading. Through the official website, it disclosed to the market the characteristics of stock trading, such as retail investors, large trading accounts and small amount of money, short-term trading, and decreased shareholding concentration. At the same time, it required the company's shares to be suspended for two times, Remind investors to establish a sense of risk, avoid speculation.

At the level of information disclosure, the regulatory authorities are determined to crack down on the illegal and illegal behaviors of speculation and misleading investors by using hot concepts.

After the outbreak of Xinguan epidemic last year, some listed companies hyped hot concepts such as vaccines and masks through information disclosure announcements and easy investor interaction, which caused abnormal fluctuations in stock prices and adverse effects on the market. For such behaviors that challenge the bottom line of the market, the regulatory authorities have repeatedly issued letters of inquiry and letters of concern to remind the market risks. At the same time, disciplinary measures have been taken as soon as possible. In 2020, disciplinary actions will be taken against ten cases of information disclosure that are suspected of "speculation and hot spots". This shows the determination of "zero tolerance" for the illegal acts of maliciously disturbing the market order.

The new delisting rules, which were issued at the end of last year, are intended to further guide rational investment in the market and protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors. At the same time, through the establishment of risk warning board to further strengthen the risk disclosure, from the investor threshold, trading amount, limit of rise and fall, suspension mechanism and other aspects to * ST or ST stock speculation.

Investor protection needs joint efforts

In other words, the so-called investor protection can not only rely on the legislation and law enforcement of the regulatory authorities, but also rely on each investor to establish a risk awareness of rational investment and buyer's own conceit.

In recent years, more positive changes have taken place, and the role of institutional investors in A-share investor structure is becoming increasingly important. According to wind statistics, as of the first quarter of 2021, there were 70157 institutional investors holding shares of a shares, with 3.42 trillion shares, accounting for 46.15% of the total share capital of A-share companies. The market value of shares held by institutional investors was 36.81 trillion yuan, accounting for 42.98% of the total market value of a shares. Both the number of shares held by institutional investors and the market value of shares held by them accounted for more than 40%. The investment target presents a certain degree of "Matthew effect", the structure of investors tends to be institutional, and the investment strategy tends to be "fundamental" and "valuable".

Looking forward to the future, with the steady progress of the reform of the comprehensive registration system and delisting system in the capital market, the positive cycle of good currency driving out bad currency will accelerate. Only by converting the desire for wealth into the fear of risk, adhering to value investment and long-term investment, participating in trading rationally and in compliance with regulations, and abandoning the fluke speculation psychology, can investors avoid unnecessary losses.

If every investor can establish a rational and healthy investment philosophy, promote the formation of a mature and rational investment culture and a healthy and good market ecology by virtue of the effect of "gathering sand into a tower", let the market survival mechanism really play a role, and let the poor performance stocks lose their shelter, this is the most effective investor protection, The majority of investors can also really enjoy the dividend of the development of the capital market in this process.

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