Summary Of Caprolactam In The Second Quarter And Prospect In The Third Quarter

In the second quarter of 2021, the caprolactam market first rose and then fell, with an overall increase of 400 yuan / T or 3.03% compared with the end of the first quarter. From April to mid May, caprolactam market showed an upward trend, which was mainly boosted by the cost side. Sinopec's listed price of pure benzene rose from 6500 yuan / ton in early April to 8200 yuan / ton in May, with an increase of 26%. The cost pressure of caprolactam was increasing, and the profitability of production enterprises was weakened, and the price of products increased. However, the price of caprolactam increased by 9% to 14400 yuan / ton due to the weak market demand of downstream PA6 chips, especially conventional spinning chips. However, it is more difficult for the downstream PA6 chips to keep up with the increase, and the conventional spinning chips have been losing money continuously. Since April, the polymerization plants have reduced the negative load to varying degrees. In May, the polymerization plants have reduced the negative load, and the demand pressure has been gradually transmitted to the caprolactam market. In addition, after the pure benzene rose to a high level, the caprolactam market began to decline from the end of May due to the reduced cost and demand pressure. By the middle of June, on the one hand, most caprolactam enterprises were in deficit, and the manufacturers had strong willingness to reduce the loss. On the other hand, many units in the north were shut down for maintenance and load reduction. Under the support of tight supply of caprolactam, the price rose slightly. As of June 18, the spot price of caprolactam in East China market was 13600 yuan / T, which was accepted and delivered.

According to statistics, caprolactam production in the second quarter of 2021 is estimated to be 1.0312 million tons, which is 1.09% lower than that in the first quarter.

Since the second quarter, the price of pure benzene has risen strongly, but caprolactam is limited to follow under the pressure of demand, and caprolactam has entered a deficit situation.

Future forecast:

In terms of cost, the overall trend of pure benzene price is still expected to fall from July to August. However, due to the strong crude oil and the low level of port inventory, the decline of pure benzene is relatively slow. From August to September, new production capacity of styrene and caprolactam in the downstream of pure benzene will be put into production. Therefore, it is expected that pure benzene will rebound at the end of the third quarter. In terms of supply and demand, the capacity expansion of caprolactam was concentrated in June. According to the current caprolactam maintenance and new production capacity plan, from July to August, Heze Xuyang, Yangmei Taihua, Inner Mongolia Qinghua, Hualu Hengsheng and other units were restarted or put into operation. The production capacity of caprolactam will be restored to 400000 tons and 440000 tons of new or expanded production capacity. Therefore, from the supply side, 7 In August, caprolactam supply increased a lot, and the benzene hexyl difference will continue to narrow in the third quarter, and caprolactam enterprises may operate at break even or with slight loss. Therefore, on the whole, benzene has declined in the third quarter, and the price of pure benzene is expected to be phased back. Caprolactam price may weaken to some extent in July and August, and the decline space still needs to wait for the decline of pure benzene. The demand side may improve from the second half of August to September, which is expected to lead to a rise in prices.