Regulatory Pressure Superimposed On Off-Season: Black System Sliding Into Adjustment Period

? ? ? ? ? Since the middle of May, under the pressure of policy on speculation, the previously soaring black commodity futures market has obviously cooled down; At the end of the month, iron ore, steel and other ferrous metals rose again.

Recently, the regulatory authorities continue to exert pressure again, and the black commodity futures have decreased significantly in recent two days; Under the policy background that the supervision is not reduced, the steel market has entered the traditional demand off-season.

Both in terms of policy and fundamentals, the black system has been under great pressure. With the arrival of the off-season, the black series led by steel and iron ore began to enter the adjustment period.

With the arrival of the off-season, the black series led by steel and iron ore began to enter the adjustment period. Visual China

The national Standing Committee has repeatedly pointed out that it is necessary to curb the unreasonable rise

On June 21, the black series commodity futures suffered a heavy setback: iron ore fell more than 8% and closed down 1121 yuan / ton, a new low in nearly two weeks; In addition, the decrease of coke is more than 5%, and the decrease of hot rolled coil and rebar is more than 4%. On the evening of June 21, the black series continued to decline on the whole, with iron ore falling by more than 4%, and hot-rolled coil and deformed steel bar both fell by more than 2%.

On the face of the news, on June 21, the price department of the national development and Reform Commission and the price supervision and Competition Bureau of the State Administration of market supervision went to Beijing iron ore trading center for investigation and held a special forum.

The forum stressed that the State supports the healthy development of iron ore spot trading platform, but will impose severe punishment and public exposure on behaviors such as reaching monopoly agreements, disseminating price increase information, driving up prices, hoarding and seizing strange things according to law, so as to maintain good market order.

The impact of regulatory news on the market continues. On June 22, the black series commodity futures fell again, with iron ore falling by more than 4% and rebar and hot rolled coil falling by more than 2%. By the end of the afternoon of June 22, coking coal and steam coal rose slightly, with iron ore closing at 1139.0 yuan / ton, down 2.69%; The prices of rebar and hot rolled coil decreased by 2.12% and 2.44% respectively to 4885 yuan / ton and 5153.00 yuan / ton respectively.

Up to now, the supervision and pressure of relevant departments on speculation in the commodity market has lasted for more than one month.

Since the middle of May, the National People's Congress has repeatedly named bulk commodities, pointing out that it is necessary to guarantee the supply of bulk commodities and curb the unreasonable price rise; Since then, DCE, Shanghai Stock Exchange and stock exchange have curbed speculation in the market by increasing the trading limit and margin of iron ore contracts.

Since the end of May, many ministries and commissions, such as the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the state owned assets supervision and Administration Commission, the State Administration of market supervision and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have taken measures to cool the overheated commodity market by interviewing key enterprises in the industry and conducting research in the trading center.

On June 17, at the national development and Reform Commission's news conference in June, Meng Wei, spokesman of the national development and Reform Commission, said that at present, speculation in the market has begun to cool down, and the prices of some bulk commodities, including iron ore, steel and copper, have fallen to varying degrees.

BOC futures pointed out that the global central banks were forced to enter the interest rate increase channel and expected to rise, resulting in a comprehensive correction of commodity prices; Whether from the monetary, policy or fundamental aspects, ferrous metals represented by steel are under greater pressure, and ferrous metals enter the adjustment period.

Steel inventory is accumulating

June and July are the traditional off-season of the steel market. In addition to the continuous impact of policy, the signs of weak demand side of steel market have begun to appear, the signs of a small decline in steel prices may continue, and the profitability of steel enterprises is not optimistic.

In the first quarter of this year, steel prices rose rapidly, the profitability of most listed steel enterprises improved significantly, and the overall profitability of the industry improved significantly; In the second quarter, steel prices rose again, and the profits of steel mills also expanded significantly. Although the subsequent steel prices rose and fell, the average increase of steel prices was still higher than the cost, and steel enterprises still made profits on average per ton of steel.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in May this year, China's crude steel output was 99.454 million tons, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year; Steel output was 125 million tons, up 7.9% year on year. In the first five months of this year, China's crude steel output reached 473 million tons, an increase of 13.9% over the same period last year; Steel output was 577 million tons, up 16.8% year on year.

In June, the price of raw materials is still at a high level, but steel prices continue to fall significantly, and the profit space of steel mills is also rapidly narrowing.

According to the calculation of Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, as of the week of June 18, the price of rebar was close to the estimated cost line, and the profits of other major steel products had also dropped to the lower median level in recent years, and the profit situation of steel production was not optimistic.

Lange steel network analysis pointed out that at present, the domestic steel market is still in the shock market, the traditional demand off-season effect began to show, the market procurement demand has begun to significantly weaken. In the near future, the maintenance situation of some steel plants has begun to increase, but the pressure on the overall steel supply end will gradually appear; Steel market inventory for two consecutive weeks, last week has turned to a comprehensive rise, some varieties of inventory has been higher than the same period last year, Shagang steel as the representative of the steel plant began to significantly reduce the ex factory price.

Huatai futures research report pointed out that from last week's steel production and sales inventory and data, the current steel market demand has entered the off-season, inventory continues to accumulate, steel off-season effect appears; On the periphery, the overseas economic indicators continued to operate at a high level. Considering the global supply and demand situation, the steel price and profit of the whole year are still optimistic.

Wang Jing, a researcher at Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, pointed out that the economic recovery slowed down in the second half of the year, the demand for steel in the manufacturing industry was expected to remain stable, the demand for steel in the construction industry became weaker, and the supply and demand situation in the market was not as good as that in the first half of the year. Steel prices are expected to show a wide range of fluctuations, and the profit situation of steel enterprises may be weaker than that in the first half of the year.

Iron ore demand will gradually weaken

In recent days, the general iron ore price index, which has maintained a volatile upward trend, also fell sharply on June 21 to US $206.6/t, which is equivalent to the price level in early June.

Huatai futures pointed out that in the medium and long term, the trend of iron ore price is mainly affected by the production reduction policy. If the subsequent reduction policies are implemented in many places, the demand for iron ore will gradually weaken and the iron ore will probably enter the surplus state; However, before the implementation of the pressure production policy, it is expected that the ore price will still be stronger.

Hu Fugang, an analyst with Lange Iron and steel network, said in an interview with the 21st century economic reporter that the current iron ore fundamentals are still relatively strong, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to national policies in the short term; In the later stage, the iron ore market needs to pay attention to the supply of domestic and foreign mines. In addition, it is the coping strategies of domestic steel enterprises to the policy changes and the adjustment of production rhythm under low profit.

At present, there is no obvious increase in overseas mine shipment, and the fiscal impulse of Australian mines in June has not been realized this year; In addition, the recent safety inspection of domestic mines will also affect the supply of domestic mineral resources.

Hu Fugang said that at present, the operating rate of domestic steel mills is still high. At this stage, the technology of steel mills is constantly upgrading, and the productivity utilization coefficient of blast furnace is constantly reaching new highs, so the demand side continues to maintain a high level. At present, the basis difference between futures and spot is relatively large, and the futures market is still at a deep discount. With the arrival of shifting positions for months, it is not ruled out that the capital market should buy and undervalue the closing basis.

My iron and steel network analysis pointed out that the recent iron ore price shocks downward, the market trading sentiment is low; On the supply side, the total amount of iron ore shipment fluctuated above the average line, and there is room for supply to increase near the end of the quarter; On the demand side, with the reduction of steel mill profits and the arrival of off-season steel demand, the maintenance situation of blast furnace will increase, and the shortage of iron ore resources is expected to be alleviated in the trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand.

On the policy side, since May, the national development and Reform Commission and the General Administration of market supervision have carried out joint research on commodity price regulation and regulation for many times to implement the work of ensuring the supply and price of bulk commodities, and the ore price will return to a reasonable range under the fundamental and policy control.

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