Mainstream Securities Companies Study And Judge A-Share Aftermarket In The Middle Of The Year: Structural Bull Market May Continue In The Second Half Of The Year

By the end of June 24, after experiencing the shock caused by the collapse of the Tuan market, the Shanghai composite index only recorded a cumulative increase of 2.65% in 2021, and the Shenzhen composite index only increased by 1.85% in the year. By contrast, the gem index was relatively impressive, with a cumulative increase of 10.14% since the beginning of the year.

With the end of the first half of the year, the release of mid year strategy of major major securities companies is coming to an end, which provides certain guidance for A-share investment strategy in the second half of 2021.

On the whole, there are some differences in the analysis of A-share market in the second half of this year. Both Societe Generale Securities and Galaxy Securities expect that the bull market has not yet ended, and the stock market has the ability to move up. There are also securities companies such as China Securities Construction Investment Co., Ltd. making relatively cautious judgments. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate and there is no systematic opportunity.

Optimist: A-share bull market is not over

"Since we put forward" long bull "in early 2019, this round of bull market has taken about two and a half years. According to the experience of a shares in the past 30 years, many investors believe that the bull market is coming to an end. However, we believe that in the era of rights and interests under the "Quartet" of national attention, institutional allocation, resident allocation and overseas allocation, the bull market is on the way, that is, the bull market is on the way Wang Delun, chief strategic analyst of Societe Generale Securities and assistant to the president of the Institute of economics and finance, said at a recent mid year strategy meeting.

Societe Generale Securities pointed out that from a fundamental point of view, in the recovery of the economy after the epidemic, the price level of PPI and other shocks are at a high level, and all A-share non-financial sectors are expected to achieve a profit growth of about 40% in the whole year. From the perspective of liquidity, the world is faced with high debt, with PPI inflation difficult to have CPI inflation, liquidity is difficult to contract substantially, easy to loose but difficult to tight has become the norm.

"At present, it is in the second half of the bull market, and the securitization rate is close to 90%, but there is no signal to end the bull market, so it is still worth exploring opportunities." Similar to Societe Generale Securities, Galaxy Securities said that the current round of bull market has lasted 32 months, exceeding the previous Shanghai index and gem bull market duration. However, Galaxy Securities also pointed out that the rising space of major market indexes is at the top of the bull market in the second half of 2021 and after, and it is not easy to exceed 30%.

Guangfa Securities, Guoxin Securities, China Merchants Securities, Shanghai Securities, Dongguan securities and other securities companies are also optimistic about the trend of a shares in the second half of this year, and have put forward various views such as "riding the current", "the second wave of the main rising wave" and "the stock market is still in the allocation period".

Compared with other securities companies, Guotai Junan is the most optimistic on the future market forecast. Chen Xianshun, chief strategic analyst of Guotai Junan, said that the shock market will continue, but not for a long time, "the market is expected to challenge 4000 points".

As for the macro situation faced by A-shares in the second half of the year, CITIC Securities said that at present, the vaccination rate has steadily increased, the global economy will move from dislocation recovery to resonance recovery, the contradiction between supply and demand of commodities will be eased, and the high point of inflation expectation disturbance has passed. In terms of policy, while domestic policies are "not turning around", high-quality development policies such as innovation, green and sharing, which are intensively implemented, have become an important point.

In addition, in the second half of the year, the macro liquidity is loose and stable internally. The Fed is not expected to reduce the scale of bond purchase this year. Domestic monetary policy remains stable and neutral, and the credit cycle is slow to decline. It is judged that the policy interest rate will not be adjusted; Market liquidity is still abundant and interbank interest rates are stable, so the relative allocation attraction of a shares is still strong.

"With the resonant recovery of the global economy and the improvement of investors' risk preference, the market action will gradually increase." CITIC Securities expects the net inflow of A-shares to reach 220 billion yuan in the second half of the year. Foreign capital inflow may continue to exceed expectations under the expectation of RMB appreciation. Finally, the profitability of a shares in the second half of the year is resilient, but the structural differentiation is obvious, the cycle is weakened and the growth is dominant. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to desalinate cyclical thinking, attach importance to long-term space and valuation elasticity, focus on high growth varieties in the third quarter, and add large consumption sectors in the fourth quarter.

With the end of the first half of the year, the release of the major mainstream securities companies' mid year strategy is coming to an end- Visual China

Cautious: there is no systematic opportunity

While more than half of the mainstream securities companies are optimistic about the trend of a shares in the second half of the year, some securities companies are more cautious, suggesting potential risks for investors.

"We tend to think that there is no systemic opportunity in the a market in the second half of 2021." Zhang Yulong, chief strategic analyst of China CITIC, said in the mid year strategy report that in the second half of 2021, China's economy fell, prices fell and interest rates fell, but economic transformation and upgrading became the core direction. Generally speaking, the A-share market should be in a state of shock. However, the rise of US bond interest rate and periodic depreciation of exchange rate will bring negative impact on A-share market. Zhang Yulong believes that under the relevant background, track selection and expected income judgment become the core of A-share market allocation.

Zhang Yulong further analyzed that growth stocks will perform best in the economic downturn. Because the standard growth stock is defined as the current capital input and future output, the cash flow is characterized by a long term, and the future output of the growth stock has nothing to do with the current economic state. In addition, Zhang Yulong is also optimistic about the long-term space of pharmaceutical biology industry, artificial intelligence industry, new energy vehicles and new energy industry represented by innovative drugs and medical devices.

Huaxi Securities also pointed out that the market in the second half of 2021 will be dominated by structural market, and systemic risk may appear in the fourth quarter. He pointed out that in the second half of this year, there are many disturbing factors in the operation of the A-share market at the macro level, and the market fluctuation will increase and the trend will be relatively tortuous. In terms of location, the risk above 3500 points is greater than the opportunity, and the opportunity between 3150 points and 3300 points is greater than the risk. The global economic recovery trend in the second half of the year will be further confirmed with the passage of time, and the window period for investors to operate will be smaller and smaller. We should make good use of the window period of "current to the third quarter" and appropriately control positions in the fourth quarter.

Huaxi Securities even specially suggested that both bonds and stocks should "not chase higher".

CICC believes that under the impact of the epidemic, most of the economies and capital markets present the characteristics of "first in, first out, and long tail exit", and the "asynchronous rhythm and structural differentiation" under the cover of total recovery continue to be the background of asset price deduction in the second half of the year. Considering the factors of growth, valuation, policy and overseas market, the judgment of A-share market in the second half of the year is "overall neutral and structure is optimistic", and it is suggested that "the index should be light, the structure should be stressed and the growth should be partial". In terms of allocation, after consolidation in the first half of the year, the "new economy" trend such as industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading has been re emphasized.

Among other cautious securities companies, Northeast Securities believes that the current profit building period, the overall market valuation is difficult to improve. Guojin securities, on the other hand, combined with inflation data analysis, said that in the inflation stage, liquidity generally leads the stock market, and the stock market leads the stock market to the top of inflation. At present, M1 may be in the top range, and inflation may peak at the end of the third quarter.

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