Half Year Test Of Real Estate Market: House Price Turns Into "Stable With Falling" Investment End Heat Does Not Decrease Or Support Sales In The Second Half Of The Year

In the first half of 2021, the real estate market has experienced a dual variation of market warming and "maintaining stability".

On July 15, the National Bureau of statistics released the relevant data of the real estate market from January to June this year. In the first half of this year, the sales area of commercial housing increased by nearly 30% year on year, and the sales volume increased by nearly 40% year-on-year, continuing to break the historical record of the same period. Affected by this, real estate investment, completion, capital sources and other indicators continue to maintain a good growth rate.

The market heat in the first half of the year was triggered by the warming of school district housing at the end of last year. To the second quarter of this year, some cities due to the first-hand housing prices hanging upside down and irrational heating. Since then, a series of regulatory policies have been launched, the market has been stable again, and the house prices have gradually returned to rationality.

According to the interpretation of the National Bureau of statistics, in June this year, the housing price increase in 70 large and medium-sized cities changed from "rising in stability" to "falling in stability".

In this process, the market expectation also gradually callback. Most institutions believe that with the tightening of the credit environment, the expectation of the real estate market is coming back. The market will continue to be rational in the second half of the year, and the rise of house prices is expected to continue to narrow.

Three reasons for good sales

According to the Statistics Bureau, in the first half of this year, the sales area of commercial housing was 886.35 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 27.7%; It is 17.0% higher than that from January to June of 2019, with an average growth of 8.1% in two years. The sales volume of commercial housing was 9293.1 billion yuan, up 38.9 percent; It is 31.4% higher than that from January to June of 2019, with an average growth of 14.7% in two years.

Since the beginning of this year, the real estate market has been keeping the transaction heat, not only the monthly transaction scale is significantly higher than the same period in previous years, but also the market expectation is quite high. In some eastern cities, consumers once appeared panic into the market and caused market chaos. Throughout the first half of the year, real estate sales hit a record high in the same period.

Zhongyuan Real Estate pointed out that there are three reasons for this phenomenon: first, the overall easing of credit. From January to June 2021, the medium and long-term credit data of households set a new record. Second, due to the first and second-hand house prices hanging upside down, some cities have appeared "hit the new trend", stimulating market demand. Third, after the epidemic, the centralized release of housing demand, coupled with the sharp decline in overseas investment, capital flow back, further accumulated market demand.

From the regional perspective, the eastern and central regions are still the hottest regions. The growth rate of sales area in the first half of the year exceeded 30%, and the growth rate of sales amount exceeded 40%. The growth rate of sales area in the western region and the northeast region is less than 20%.

Sales to the good, but also make other indicators to maintain a good growth rate. In the first half of this year, the national real estate development investment reached 7217.9 billion yuan, an increase of 15.0% year-on-year, and an average increase of 8.2% in the past two years. Both the construction area and the construction area of the house have maintained a positive growth.

Most institutions believe that the continued popularity of investment is related to the "two concentration" land supply policy of hot cities. Since April this year, 22 hot cities have implemented centralized land announcement and centralized land transfer, which has stimulated the heat of the overall land market. According to the current development cycle, the first batch of land is expected to form sales performance within the year, so the developers have a high enthusiasm for land acquisition and investment, which not only stimulates the improvement of two indicators of new construction and investment, but also is expected to support the sales in the second half of the year.

Most institutions believe that in the whole year, the scale of real estate sales this year is likely to hit a record high again, and is expected to launch an impact on the scale of 20 trillion yuan.

On the capital side, in the first half of the year, real estate development enterprises invested 10289.8 billion yuan, an increase of 23.5% year on year. Among them, "deposit and advance payment" increased by 49.7% due to the good sales.

From "reaching stability" to "falling in stability"

Although the transaction heat in the first half of the year was quite high, in order to maintain the stability of the market, regulatory policies were constantly implemented.

According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real estate, in the first half of this year, 286 real estate market control policies were issued by the regulatory authorities and all over the country, including interviews with the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, rectification of intermediary agencies, restriction of second-hand housing pricing, operating loans, land supply, encouraging leasing, and cracking down on speculation in school district housing.

June is the most intensive phase of policy release. According to the statistics of Shell Research Institute, in June, 15 cities including Wuxi, Tianjin, Qingdao, Guangzhou, Hainan, Beijing, Harbin, Changchun, Nanchang, Suzhou, Nanning, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Huzhou and Shaoxing issued 20 real estate control policies.

At the same time, under the influence of various reasons, the credit environment has also tightened. According to the housing loan interest rate of 72 cities monitored by the above-mentioned institutions, the loan interest rate of the first set of housing was 5.52%, and that of the second set of housing was 5.77%, up 23 and 21 basis points respectively compared with January; In June 72, the average lending cycle was 50 days, 2 days longer than that in May.

These policies not only inhibit sales, but also affect market expectations. According to Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, the overall market expectation is falling back, and the enthusiasm of house buyers has declined.

As a result, towards the middle of the year, the market finally stabilized. Specifically reflected in, although the transaction volume remains high, but the rise in house prices significantly narrowed.

Another group of data released by the Bureau of statistics showed that in June this year, the prices of new houses in first tier cities rose by 0.7% month on month, the same as that of the previous month. The prices of new houses in second tier and third tier cities rose by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, with the increase falling by 0.1%. Second hand housing prices, all levels of cities to maintain flat and slightly rising state.

From the interpretation of the National Bureau of statistics on housing prices, it is not difficult to see the trend of change. In the first quarter of this year, the price increase in 70 large and medium-sized cities is still in the state of "rising and falling". In the second quarter, the increases were "rising in stability", "stabilizing" and "falling in stability".

A person in charge of a listed real estate enterprise in East China told the 21st century economic report that due to the financial pressure brought about by various regulatory policies and the restriction of "price limit order", the price rise space has been basically blocked. On the contrary, many enterprises have implemented price reduction and promotion in the first half of the year. If the capital chain continues to be under pressure, "price for volume" will continue.

Xu Xiaole believes that this situation should be a high probability event. On the one hand, the policy environment is still tight, and some cities with high popularity of new housing market may tighten regulation, such as adjusting the guiding price of second-hand housing. On the other hand, the credit environment is tightening, and it is expected that there will be further correction. He said that it is expected that the market will become more rational, and the overall price rise will continue to narrow in the later period.

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