Star Fund Managers In The Second Quarter: Mao Index Cried And Ning Index Laughed

Recently, a number of star fund managers' funds published the second quarter report of 2021, including Zhang Kun, Fu Pengbo, Xiao Nan, Liu Gesong, Wang Zonghe, Feng Mingyuan, Feng Bo, Zhao Feng, Jiao Wei, Li Xiaoxing, Huang Xingliang, etc.

Every move of star fund managers has attracted much attention from the market. So how did they adjust their positions and what trend changes have taken place? Among a series of twists and turns, who set foot on the rhythm to make a bowl of full and happy, and who made mistakes in the operation and missed the opportunity and frowned?

Position differentiation is becoming more and more obvious

In the second quarter of 2021, the A-share market fluctuated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 4.34% and the gem index up 26.05%. New energy, automobile, electronics, medicine and other industries performed better, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, real estate, household appliances and other industries performed relatively backward.

At this time, a number of heavy positions in the "Mao index" - the traditional white horse Stocks - fund managers collectively reduced the stock position.

One of the representatives is Zhang Kun, who manages more than 130 billion yuan of funds. Compared with the first quarter report in 2021, the stock positions of Zhang Kun's four products all declined in the second quarter.

At the end of the first quarter, Zhang Kun's positions in all four funds exceeded 93%, but by the end of the second quarter, only e fund's blue chip selection position was at 90%, and the stock positions of the other three funds had been less than 90%, and e fund's small and medium-sized stocks were even as low as 70%.

Compared with the end of the first quarter, among Zhang Kun's four funds, e fund's small and medium cap stock positions declined the most, and the proportion of its stock market value to the fund's net asset value decreased significantly from 93.93% at the end of the first quarter to 70.36%, a decrease of 23.57 percentage points.

In addition, at the end of the second quarter, the proportion of the market value of e fund's blue chip selection, e-fund's three-year holding of high-quality enterprises and e-fund Asia's selection in the net asset value of the fund were 90.17%, 89.24% and 86.45%, respectively, down 3.44%, 5.33 and 6.72 percentage points compared with the end of the first quarter.

In fact, not only Zhang Kun, but also many funds with traditional white horse stocks, such as the Mao index, whose stock positions fell in the second quarter.

For example, the e-fund consumer industry managed by Xiao Nan, the "king of consumption", saw its stock position drop from 89.30% to 85.37%; Wang Zonghe management of Penghua ingenuity, the stock position from 94.6% to 93.94%.

However, contrary to the "Mao index" fund's position reduction operation, many funds investing in "Ning index" and other growth stocks rose in the second quarter.

For example, the stock position of wanjiaxuan, managed by Huang Xingliang, rose from 87.28% to 93.41%; The core growth rate of harvest, managed by Guikai, rose from 88.82% to 91.99%.

However, on the whole, there are a large number of star fund managers who have disclosed the second quarter report and their funds have maintained high positions, even higher than 90%, such as funds managed by Wang Zonghe, Liu Gesong, Feng Mingyuan, GUI Kai, Feng Bo and Huang Xingliang.

Transfer direction: reduce liquor, education, add new energy, science and technology

From star fund managers in the second quarter of the top 10 heavy positions, some "Mao index" fund managers reduced their holdings of first-line liquor stocks.

Take Zhang Kun as an example, the top 10 positions of Zhang Kun's four funds in the second quarter were not significantly different from those in the first quarter. For example, Zhang Kun's management of e-fund's small and medium cap stocks remained unchanged in the first and second quarter.

However, in the second quarter, e fund reduced the allocation of food and beverage industries and increased the allocation of computer and other industries.

While e fund's small and medium Cap Fund's stock position fell 23.57 percentage points month on month in the second quarter, seven of the top 10 heavy positions were reduced.

It is worth mentioning that in the second quarter, Zhang Kun substantially reduced the position of liquor stocks.

Wuliangye had the highest reduction rate in the small and medium cap of e-fonda, with the number of shares reduced from 10.8 million shares to 5.3 million shares, with a reduction rate of 50.93%, from the second largest to the seventh largest.

Maotai, Guizhou Province, followed closely by the reduction of positions, with a reduction of 21.43% from 1.4 million shares to 1.1 million shares. But from the third position to the second position.

And e-fund small and medium-sized plate in the second quarter of biological medicine is increased and decreased. Tongce Medical Co., Ltd. reduced its holding by 17.14%, but as the market rose in the second quarter, Tongce medical jumped from the sixth position to the first; Zhang Kun's holdings of meinian health decreased by 4.15% and that of Tiantan bio by 0.60%. However, Hualan biological Co., Ltd. kept its fourth position unchanged.

In addition, the second quarter increased its holding of 1.5 million shares of Hang Seng electronics by 7.32%, while Zhongju hi tech did not increase or decrease.

Another notable direction for Zhang Kun to reduce his holdings is education shares. Zhang Kun said that e Fund Asia select fund reduced the allocation of consumption and other industries, and increased the allocation of banking, real estate and other industries.

E Fund Asia selected shows that tal, New Oriental and Staar surgical co withdrew from the top 10 heavy positions.

Zhang Kun said in E Fund Asia's selection that in the second quarter, due to the influence of policy expectations, the share price of the teaching and training enterprises dropped significantly, which had a certain negative impact on the net value of the fund. It also made him reflect on some assumptions in the long-term investment framework, hoping to further improve it.

According to the changes in its heavy positions, Zhang Kun may have reduced his holdings in education stocks.

The second quarter report of Ruiyuan's growth value jointly managed by Fu Pengbo and Zhu Zhen, an investment tycoon, shows that, like the first quarter report, Lixun precision, Dongfang Yuhong, China Mobile and Weining health continue to occupy the top four positions of Ruiyuan's growth value, but Lixun precision has replaced China Mobile as the No.1 position in Ruiyuan's growth value.

Since the beginning of this year, as the leader of the apple chain, the stock price of Lixun precision has dropped from a high of 63 yuan at the beginning of the year, and has dropped by nearly half by the end of March. In the first quarter, the shares of Lixun precision were collectively reduced by some funds. However, the stock price of Lixun precision rose 36% in the second quarter. In the whole second quarter, the trend of the stock price of Lixun precision was two steps forward and one step backward. Fu Pengbo went against the trend in the low position of the first quarter and made a small reduction when the stock price rebounded in the second quarter, but he still firmly held the heavy position of Lixun precision and became the largest heavy position stock.

Ruiyuan's growth value in the second quarter of the new three heavy positions, including San'an optoelectronics, Geely Automobile, SIMORE international new into its top 10 heavy positions. They occupy the track of chips, new energy vehicles and electronic cigarettes.

In contrast, Longji, a leading photovoltaic company, and xinzebang, a new energy racetrack company, whose share price rose sharply in the second quarter, was excluded from the top 10 heavy positions by Fu Pengbo.

Contrary to Fu Pengbo's removal of Longji shares from the top 10 heavy positions, Liu Gesong, the "top three" fund performance in 2019, increased his holdings of Longji shares in the second quarter, which became the largest heavy position stock. Meanwhile, he also increased his holdings of Longji shares and Shengbang shares, and Xinjin Xiaokang shares were the top ten heavy positions; However, the number of shares held by Yiwei lithium energy, BOE a, Kangtai bio and Gaode infrared remained unchanged. In the same period, tiger pharmaceutical has withdrawn from the top 10 heavy positions of the fund.

Liu Gesong is firmly optimistic about new energy. Among his top ten positions, there are three new energy related targets, namely Longji, Yiwei lithium and Xiaokang, ranking first, second and ninth respectively.

Feng Mingyuan, another "Ning index" investment expert, managed the Cinda Australia Bank new energy industry stock fund's second quarter stock position of 92.57%.

In the second quarter of 2021, Feng Mingyuan increased his holdings in manufacturing industries such as new energy, semiconductor, chemical industry and cycle industries. The specific allocation direction includes lithium battery, photovoltaic, semiconductor, advanced equipment, new materials and other fields.

According to the second quarter report, Feng Mingyuan's position change is still very big. In the first quarter, only three stocks including Ningde times, Fara electronics and Sanli PU were retained.

In addition, seven new stocks were added, including Shilan micro, BYD, Fuman electronics, Putai, Shida Shenghua, Tianqi lithium and Yahua group. Among them, Fuman electronic's share price has soared more than three times since this year, and Shida Shenghua and shilanwei are also big bull stocks whose share prices have doubled this year.

Right and wrong, gain and loss

For star fund managers whose performance has been tested by the market, one quarter's performance can not represent anything, but their long-term thinking on "Mao index" and "Ning index" in the second quarter report is worth learning from.

"Looking back on my previous judgment, I found that there were many mistakes," Zhang Kun said in the second quarter

Zhang Kun's investment direction is obviously in the traditional white horse stock track, that is, the "Mao index". He has to rethink this year in the face of the problem that the valuation of the "Mao index" is too high.

He pointed out that some industries with long-term growth space, such as science and technology, medicine, consumption and new energy, are facing higher and higher P / E ratio, and more and more valuation methods are adopted for enterprises. It seems that only in this way can investors obtain an acceptable level of return.

"There is no doubt that such an environment requires investors to judge correctly. We find that for some companies, under the assumption that all kinds of assumptions are fulfilled, they may be able to earn a discount rate or a slightly higher yield level than the discount rate in the next five years, but if they are wrong, they may face a 30% or even 50% decline in their stock prices. " Zhang Kun said.

In an environment of abundant liquidity and anxious capital seeking for high return areas, many industries will face more fierce competition in the next few years than in the past five years.

"Looking back on my past judgment, I found many mistakes. In my opinion, the difficulty of judging the competition pattern of the industry in the next five years will only increase. On the whole, if it is correct, it may only get a mediocre rate of return, but once it is wrong, it will face a lot of losses. Under such odds distribution, it is obviously a difficult move for investment. " Zhang Kun said.

Zhang Kun concluded that in this case, either in-depth research in hot industries, trying to obtain higher probability certainty, or in less crowded industries, slightly sacrifice some probability, bear more uncertainty, and obtain better odds return. I often look at the portfolio in this way. If the stock market is suspended and trading is resumed after five years, how much expected compound return can each enterprise bring? Judging from the current judgment, it may be inevitable that the expected return rate will decline in the next few years.

Different from Zhang Kun, Feng Mingyuan's second quarter report allocation direction is "Ning index". In the second quarter of 2021, he increased his holdings of manufacturing stocks in new energy, semiconductor, chemical industry and cycle industries.

Feng Mingyuan said in the second quarter report that at the current node, the new energy and science and technology fields will still be one of the most determined and high-quality tracks in China in the next three to five years. Looking forward to the future, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, electronics and other industries have good investment prospects. We hope to grow together with excellent listed companies.

Liu Gesong said that in the second quarter, the overall liquidity environment of the market improved, and the assets with high outlook such as medicine and new energy showed a good rebound range, and the market as a whole showed a pattern of constant strength of the strong.

In the second quarter, Liu Gesong focused on the photovoltaic industry chain, power batteries, new chemical materials, panels and other Chinese manufacturing listed companies with the characteristics of "global comparative advantage". The research results show that the competitive pattern of China's manufacturing industry with "global comparative advantage" is still in the process of further optimization, and as the global economy continues to recover from the epidemic situation, The profitability of such manufacturing assets is expected to maintain a relatively long business cycle; At the same time, the valuation expansion of such manufacturing assets has not deviated from the boom zone, and a considerable part of the assets still have high cost performance, which is the basis for their confidence in the portfolio.

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