After A-Share Crash, Institutional Bottom Copy Roadmap Emerges: Away From Education Stocks, Favor "Ning Index"

The A-share investors fell confused.

On July 26, a senior general manager and investment director of a private equity company sighed: "I don't know why it fell so hard."

Is the day, A-share market fell sharply. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.34% to 3467.44, the Shenzhen composite index fell 2.65% to 14630.85, and the gem index fell 2.84% to 3371.23.

The net sales of northbound funds reached 12.802 billion yuan in the whole day, and the net sales in a single day reached a new high in nearly a year.

On the same day, education and training concept stocks took the lead in falling limit, medicine, liquor and big consumption continued to be depressed, real estate, banks and non bank finance continued to decline, and even the strong trend of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, electrolyte and other concepts also showed a significant correction.

However, the 21st century economic report reporter learned that on July 26, when a shares fell sharply, some institutions had begun to copy the bottom. On the whole, institutions are abandoning education stocks and favor "Ning index" (new energy stocks represented by Ningde era).

Double reduction policy storm leads to A-share slump

On July 26, the downturn in the A-share market was not caused by fundamentals.

For the education stocks fell sharply on the same day, we can understand, but why the whole market rhythm has been broken?

There is a funny story about the sharp fall of a shares

Why did ophthalmology plummet today? Because the children do not make up lessons, reduce the burden, do not do homework, the eyes will naturally become better, do not have to see the eye.

Why did Yimei plummet? Because the child does not make up lessons, the mother will be at home at the weekend with baby, no time to go beauty.

Why liquor plummeted? Because the children don't make up lessons, dad doesn't have time to drink.

Then, everyone went to learn the piano, Helen piano limit.

Although it is joking and funny, the education industry policy has indeed triggered a chain reaction in the market.

Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund pointed out that the main trigger factor of the market decline was the issuance of education and training industry standard documents by the central government office and the State Council on Friday, and the management was very strict, which led to the decline of China capital stock in many fields, and the pessimism was further transmitted to A shares.

Dacheng Fund said that the big drop was first caused by market concerns caused by industrial policy adjustment. Before this, some relevant industrial policies which have been postponed to be implemented have been released one after another. Last week's announcement of "double reduction" in the education industry and Tencent music's hammer antitrust led to a sharp drop in overseas technology stocks. At the same time, it has caused the market's concern that the following industries, such as oral cavity, liquor, medical and beauty, are suffering from negative policies, and the policy repression of real estate has been further increased in the near future.

Liu Zhenglin, manager of Jingzhi asset fund, pointed out that after the sharp fall of education stocks on Friday, the market believed that there was a significant change in the direction of national policy, which reflected that the stock market was a huge move to adjust positions.

"The policy crackdown on extra-curricular training is more severe than expected. Moreover, the policy direction has appeared in many industries. After the fermentation over the weekend, the market believes that the national policy encourages the improvement of international competitiveness, and it needs to develop hard technology and high-end manufacturing. At the same time, it is necessary to reduce meaningless internal consumption, improve people's happiness, improve fertility willingness, and crack down on education involution Internet capital monopolizes rent collection and so on. " Liu Zhenglin said.

"In fact, there are signs of these major changes, but now the capital market has begun to deeply realize that, therefore, the large-scale transfer of positions between industries has triggered market fluctuations." Liu Zhenglin said.

However, due to the policy changes, foreign investors could not adapt for a time, and a large number of northward funds flowed out of a shares and overseas China General stocks.

On July 26, a net outflow of 12.8 billion yuan from the north, a new high in nearly a year, contributed to the decline of the market.

In addition, Wang Qinghua, chairman of Ronghu investment, explained the decline that last year's public funds led the consumption of medicine in groups, which made this sector extremely bubble. Some public funds provided consumer medicine in China and internet education overseas. Last Friday, China General Education stock collapsed, and many funds will passively reduce their positions in consumer medicine. The decline in education stocks also led foreign investors to see that China's market is greatly affected by the policy, and fled one after another. Liquor medicine, medicine and beauty, which are heavily held by foreign investors, fell sharply.

Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund pointed out that, regardless of the impact of policy changes, since the end of May, new energy vehicles, semiconductors and their related upstream and downstream industrial chains have continued to rise. With the cooperation of industrial policies, funds continue to pour into these two sectors, and market volatility is increasing. In addition, the financing balance continued to rise sharply before, and the profit-making effect led to the rise of risk preference of individual investors. Today, the market fell sharply, causing negative feedback, which is also a major factor in accelerating the market decline.

"The market sentiment is more panic, and domestic and foreign investors are also worried about the negative effects of the Sino US trade war, and the outflow is accelerated. The net sales of Hong Kong stock connect are more than 10 billion yuan, and the large-scale decline leads to the killing and falling of the market's superscript marks almost without exception." Xuanjia financial CEO Lin Jiayi sighs.

However, the agency does not expect the decline to be sustained. Great Wall Fund believes that "today's sharp market correction is mainly driven by emotional factors. From a macro perspective, the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Liquidity is still favorable to the market, and the downside risk is not big."

There's an agency to copy the bottom

In the face of the market crash, an institution asked investors, "what should you do now if a shares rebound violently or there is the next bubble in the next year or so?"

"We should grasp the market to give this kind of window of cost performance beyond expectations, and increase its holdings against the trend." Xuanjia financial CEO Lin Jiayi suggested so.

Lin Jiayi said that the market retreated due to the short-term liquidity imbalance caused by panic, "we need to stick to it and further grasp the huge opportunities.".

The reason given by him is that with the market panic on the same day, the high cost performance ratio of the position target will be further greatly improved. It can be said that the position target is basically ultra-high cost performance, which indicates that it is difficult to further decline, and the potential return in the future is infinite, even several times more. At the same time, foreign capital has sold net, which will be made up after the market eases, and the net inflow of foreign capital of 400 billion yuan per year is expected to remain unchanged. Therefore, he believes that this stage is a good time to invest.

July 26, in the A-share decline, Quanhong private fund general manager Li Kejie began to copy: "in today's A-share decline, we bought back the stock."

Li Kejie explained: "because in the early A-share rise, we sold the stock according to the plan."

Li Kejie predicts that the market will be divided and hot spots will be rotated after this round of decline.

"Today there are more than a trillion trading volume, and the market is still there. There is no need to be pessimistic. In the mud and sand, we are looking for valuable and promising stocks to buy. "

Zhao Lisong, general manager of Runde Yingxi private equity fund, also said: "in view of the short-term adjustment of the market, we follow our own pace. Our investment is mainly concentrated in technology stocks. We have appropriately increased positions in chips and computer related stocks."

Zhou Wenming, general manager of Linze investment, believes that "today's market crash is not a systemic risk, but a big mood fluctuation. After the market can be seen as a rest period

Yang Delong, chief economist and fund manager of Qianhai open source fund, pointed out that an important investment strategy at present is to reduce the high position of strong stocks to avoid the risk of rapid fall in the short term, and to invest in well adjusted consumption white horse stocks.

But Yang Delong said that each round of big falls is the time to invest in high-quality stocks or high-quality funds, but in the current market downturn, we need to be patient, wait for the market panic to be released, and then bargain for high-quality stocks to be adjusted in place.

Wang Xuan, chairman of Chengen capital, judged that at the present stage, large funds are still in the process of stock swap, from the early group of Baima shares to the new energy photovoltaic plate. Now there is no systematic risk in the market, and the index is still mainly volatile, so it does not have the basis for a sustained slump.

While some organizations pay close attention to the bottom copy, others are more cautious.

"The policy is relatively difficult to predict, so the relevant target may not be able to copy the bottom, so we need to wait until the industry policy is stable in the future to find a better target for investment," said Hu Po, fund manager of private placement network

Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu investment, said that the current news coverage is the key factor to promote the market trend, so the market is more likely to be volatile and adjust, waiting for direction guidance.

"As the market uncertainty is relatively large, we need to maintain a cautious attitude towards band operation. It is suggested to avoid or reduce the position of the theme varieties with large recent increase and high valuation; For the undervalued varieties with outstanding performance certainty, we can take advantage of the market adjustment opportunity to appropriately increase the position. But it is not recommended that ordinary investors intervene in the education sector at this time point. " Yuan Huaming said.

A general manager of a private equity firm in Beijing suggested that "at present, we should see more and move less, and continue to observe the direction."

Stay away from education stocks and choose "Ning index"

After the market crash, which industries, tracks and sectors do institutions choose to invest in?

On the whole, institutions have avoided some track that is no longer optimistic, especially education stocks.

"It can be confirmed that education stocks should stay away from the market. Similarly, fund groups will begin to disintegrate, and the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors will also face continuous stampede risks." Ronghu investment chairman Wang Qinghua said.

And has experienced a big rise in the early "Ning composite index" track is still the most concerned institutions.

Wang Qinghua said that the lithium battery industry chain is the golden track in the next three to five years, which is also in line with the direction of national development and policy support. But the good and the bad are intermingled, so we need to grasp the change of technological route and the core competitiveness of enterprises.

"Our strategy is to be firm in the long term and hold stocks with resource and technology leadership in the lithium battery industry chain." Wang Qinghua said.

Wang Xuan, chairman of Chengen capital, focuses on new energy and photovoltaic main circuit. However, he pointed out that some individual stocks have already appeared bubble, so we should choose the best layout of reasonable valuation targets, and avoid over valued stocks in the short term. In the medium and long term, we can pay attention to the track stocks leading and the military industry plate.

Dacheng Fund predicts that high-end manufacturing may become the main line of the new cycle, and is optimistic about new energy, semiconductor and military industry in the medium term.

Liu Zhenglin, manager of Jingzhi asset fund, believes that when liquor and medicine plummet, hard technology, high-end manufacturing, new energy, military industry and other directions are very resistant. These plates may continue to be strong in the future.

China Southern Fund said that the main tone of the medium and short-term market will still be volatile, accompanied by a certain structural market. It is worth noting that the recent strong performance of new energy, cycle and other sectors should pay attention to the amplification of volatility.

"In the medium and long term, we continue to be optimistic. The domestic stock market operation center has an obvious upward trend year by year. Science and technology, consumption and medicine are the main track for the long-term layout." Southern Fund said.

Some institutions are worried about the overestimation of "Ning index", and turn to "Ning index" medium and high boom industries, as well as "Mao index" and undervalued varieties.

Hu Zhenyi, manager of Honghan investment fund, said that at present, only new energy is outstanding, and it is mainly concentrated in the upstream. However, industries with high overvalued value and booming economy are facing valuation pressure. However, opportunities for military industry are still in the near future; On the contrary, undervalued varieties are accumulating rebound kinetic energy. The introduction of education policy is a guide for many industries to reduce valuation, and the market risk preference will decline.

Ping An fund is cautiously optimistic about the future market, optimistic about two major directions. One is the cyclical plate (such as machinery, chemical industry, nonferrous metals, etc.) that benefit from price rise and economic recovery cycle; Second, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, semiconductors, new materials and military industries with loose liquidity, policy support and sustained high prosperity.

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